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Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD predictions thread (who will win this months NPD?).

 

Who will win this months NPD?

Xbox One 54 19.78%
 
Playstation 4 199 72.89%
 
Wii U 14 5.13%
 
3DS 6 2.20%
 
Total:273
jason1637 on 17 December 2016
Bandorr said:
CGI-Quality said:

Yes, 4 months out of this year, Amazon indicated wrong. That isn't the latter half, though. That's where my initial confusion turned to curiosity.

Actually that is wrong. Amazon did indicate Xbox winning July.  As soon as the mega discounts started for Xbox it shot to the top of Amazon.  It was about 2 weeks if I recall correctly.

Amazon couldn't "predict"the winner of august since august was won by the pre orders of the xb1.

September and October had muliple bugs. There was no Halo bundle, and none of the other bundles broke the to 50.

So it predicted one of them right, couldn't predict one, and had a bug for the other two.

So that leaves December as the question. There are no pre orders, and clearly the bug is gone. So if it is wrong then Amazon should be questioned.

It showed the xb1 jumping in the hourly an di think the weekly but the PS4 was ahead in the monthly chart.



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RJ_Sizzle on 17 December 2016

If Sony does nothing to counter MS's after-Christmas deals, I'll say Xbox. But only then.



GProgrammer on 17 December 2016

ps4 1,600,000
xbox one 1,200,000
wii U 250,000



jason1637 on 17 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

Its a different story when they have been wrong 4 times in a row.

Not really. It just means some other factor may have been present during that time. It doesn't mean we right off 30-32 other months that they indicated correctly.

It is. It means that more people have bought a PS4 in the last for months from Amazon while as awhole in the US more people have bought an XB1. This could mean that more people are using amazon to buy PS4S compared to those using it to buy XB1S so Amazon from now on could lean in favor of PS4 while as a whole the XB1 is selling more.



Aura7541 on 17 December 2016
jason1637 said:
Aura7541 said:

1. Two times isn't enough to constitute "a lot".

2. Again, word of mouth is important. It can be a deciding factor for someone who's on the fence. Because the PS4 version sells significantly more, it will have significantly larger word of mouth. The "He has this thing. I want it, too" factor does influence sales, including hardware sales. 

1. Its 4 times not 2. 4 times is a lot because for the whole Q3 they have been wrong.

2. Well word of mouth usually happens between friends. Ig someone friend has a PS4 they will want one too, but if someone friend has an XB1 they would want one too. 

But not evenly. Remember, FFXV skews towards the PS4 a lot, so inherently, the PS4 version will have bigger word of mouth.

Also to respond to your response to CGI's comment, that only applies if other retailers offer deals, but Amazon doesn't follow suit. In this case, Amazon is price-matching all the other retailers, so the hardware trends on Amazon are similar to those in Gamestop, Walmart, Best Buy, etc.



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jason1637 on 17 December 2016
Bandorr said:
jason1637 said:

It showed the xb1 jumping in the hourly an di think the weekly but the PS4 was ahead in the monthly chart.

Final Monthly Hardware Rankings

XBO The Division bundle: #9
XBO Name Your Game bundle: #17
PS4 CoD bundle: #22
New 3DS XL (black): #27
XBO S 2TB: #32*
New 3DS XL (red): #43
XBO Gears bundle: #61
XBO S 2TB Gears 4 LE bundle: #70*
XBO 1TB Holiday bundle: #80
PS4 standalone: #91
PSTV: #93

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7970337

Oh ok then July was spot on then.



jason1637 on 17 December 2016
Aura7541 said:
jason1637 said:

1. Its 4 times not 2. 4 times is a lot because for the whole Q3 they have been wrong.

2. Well word of mouth usually happens between friends. Ig someone friend has a PS4 they will want one too, but if someone friend has an XB1 they would want one too. 

But not evenly. Remember, FFXV skews towards the PS4 a lot, so inherently, the PS4 version will have bigger word of mouth.

Also to respond to your response to CGI's comment, that only applies if other retailers offer deals, but Amazon doesn't follow suit. In this case, Amazon is price-matching all the other retailers, so the hardware trends on Amazon are similar to those in Gamestop, Walmart, Best Buy, etc.

Other retailers have price match and we don't trust their rankings.



Aura7541 on 17 December 2016
jason1637 said:
Aura7541 said:

But not evenly. Remember, FFXV skews towards the PS4 a lot, so inherently, the PS4 version will have bigger word of mouth.

Also to respond to your response to CGI's comment, that only applies if other retailers offer deals, but Amazon doesn't follow suit. In this case, Amazon is price-matching all the other retailers, so the hardware trends on Amazon are similar to those in Gamestop, Walmart, Best Buy, etc.

Other retailers have price match and we don't trust their rankings.

Because those other retailers do not specialize on online sales. They are brick & mortar retailers. Amazon, on the other hand, is 100% online. Last year, NPD George/NDP Mulcair warned against using the online rankings of B&M stores because they constitute as little as 1% of the total marketshare. That is a significantly smaller marketshare than Amazon's.



jason1637 on 17 December 2016
Bandorr said:
jason1637 said:

Oh ok then July was spot on then.


Plus look at octobers monthly. You can tell there was a HUGE bug. The only xbox bundles are in the NINETIES?

PS VR launch bundle: #25
PS4 Pro: #26*
PS VR: #29
PS4 Slim Uncharted 4 bundle: #47
PS4 standalone: #57
PS4 Uncharted 4 LE bundle: #61
New 3DS XL (Galaxy): #87
XBO S 1TB Madden bundle: #91
XBO S 2TB Gears 4 LE bundle: #93
XBO S 1TB Battlefield 1 bundle: #98

Or more people were buying PS4s and only a few people buying XB1S from Amazon.



hudsoniscool on 17 December 2016
iNathan said:
hudsoniscool said:

Just realized npd did release that console sales where down 35% YOY in November. At this point seams like the leak was correct. Everything before there leak was pointing to PS4 being up YOY(slim,pro) and Xbox being at least flat(slim, npd from previous months). Than the leak came out said that console sales where down a lot. Didn't make much sense but here is npd saying it is infact down a lot. The leak seams to be pretty spot on as far as total console sales, so in all likelyhood it is also correct about individual console sales as well. At this point it seams more likely that PS4 would win 1.1m vs 1m, then them winning 1.3m to 800k. People can deny the leak but what npd has released brings up the legitimacy of it dramatically.

my December predictions

1.15 million Xbox one

920 k PS4 

Those are terrible predictions, at least predict something that might happen Lmao 

December is the biggest year for anything so real bad predictions there. 

Haha thanks man, I'm basing them off the rumored November numbers of 1.1 million for PS4 and 1 million for Xbox. I'd love to be wrong by a lot and Xbox get 1.5 million, even if PlayStation where to get 2 million.



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.