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Forums - Sales Discussion - December NPD predictions thread (who will win this months NPD?).

 

Who will win this months NPD?

Xbox One 54 19.78%
 
Playstation 4 199 72.89%
 
Wii U 14 5.13%
 
3DS 6 2.20%
 
Total:273
jason1637 on 17 December 2016
celador said:
jason1637 said:

Am i reading that right?

If you read it as 2,000,000 then yes

Why so much?



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jason1637 on 17 December 2016
jason1637 said:
XB1-1.2m
PS4-1.1m
3DS- 600k
Wii U- 120k
Also the xb1 sold 1.37m last year and you rounded down while rounding up for PS4s 1.58m

Forgot December was a 5 week month so I'm changing my predictions.

XB1- 1.25m

PS4- 1.22m

3DS- 680k

Wii U- 180k



hudsoniscool on 17 December 2016

Just realized npd did release that console sales where down 35% YOY in November. At this point seams like the leak was correct. Everything before there leak was pointing to PS4 being up YOY(slim,pro) and Xbox being at least flat(slim, npd from previous months). Than the leak came out said that console sales where down a lot. Didn't make much sense but here is npd saying it is infact down a lot. The leak seams to be pretty spot on as far as total console sales, so in all likelyhood it is also correct about individual console sales as well. At this point it seams more likely that PS4 would win 1.1m vs 1m, then them winning 1.3m to 800k. People can deny the leak but what npd has released brings up the legitimacy of it dramatically.

my December predictions

1.15 million Xbox one

920 k PS4 



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

jason1637 on 17 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

1. Yes from April- October the XB1 has been the best selling console. If the rumored numbers are true from May-Nov the XB1 has been the best selling console.

- The Xbox One won April, May, and June 2016 NPDs? Since when?

2. The XB360 won FFX3 month in the US. Lets not forget that December is a month for casuals to buy consoles so to a casual they will see that the game is on both consoles so it won't be a huge deciding factor.

- I had forgotten the X360 won the NPD for XIII, but that was also when the Xbox was winning the US. That isn't the case this time and it will do much more for Sony, even in the US, then on the 360. Like I said, don't ignore the bundle, either.

- My take.

1. Im speaking of the combined sales from April-Oct if we add up all the sales the XB1 did better than the PS4, and with the rumored numbers from May-Nov if we add up all the sales the XB1 is ahead of the PS4.

2. I wasn't aware the PS4 got a FF bundle. It hasnt been charting on Amazon and other retailers it hasn't been charting. But to casuals who are the people to  buy the most consoles this month a multi plat won't do much to convince them to get a PS4 over the XB1.



hudsoniscool on 17 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
hudsoniscool said:
It's funny how everyone keeps talking about the amazon charts without bringing up the GameStop charts ever. Last time I checked it(few moths back) in the top 10 selling products there were 7 Xbox one console, only 1 PS4 console. Amazons chart doesn't mean much. Xbox won npd 4 months in a row and every month people where saying 'but amazon...'.

Anyway if last months npd leak was real than I think something like
1.2 million Xbox one
950k PS4
If it was fake than
1.4 million PS4
1.5 million Xbox
Either way I have Xbox winning. PlayStation was supposed to win November it had the pro launch and months of preorders. Also in my opinion PS4 had slightly better deals for Black Friday. This month it seams the other way around as far as deals go. We will see what happens will be a interesting month.

You say we should bring up GameStop's chart, but then say Amazon's doesn't mean much? It has been right far more times than it has been wrong. So why should it be eliminated?

Sorry I believe they are both equally irrelevant. I only brought it up because I hear about amazon all the time, but never gamestops or best buys. 



Halo MCC will sell 5+ million copies(including digital)

halo 5 will sell 10 million copies(including digital)

x1 will pass ps4 in USA, and UK.

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barneystinson69 on 17 December 2016

Was gone for like 3 hours and this has over 40 additional replies... 



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

iNathan on 17 December 2016
hudsoniscool said:

Just realized npd did release that console sales where down 35% YOY in November. At this point seams like the leak was correct. Everything before there leak was pointing to PS4 being up YOY(slim,pro) and Xbox being at least flat(slim, npd from previous months). Than the leak came out said that console sales where down a lot. Didn't make much sense but here is npd saying it is infact down a lot. The leak seams to be pretty spot on as far as total console sales, so in all likelyhood it is also correct about individual console sales as well. At this point it seams more likely that PS4 would win 1.1m vs 1m, then them winning 1.3m to 800k. People can deny the leak but what npd has released brings up the legitimacy of it dramatically.

my December predictions

1.15 million Xbox one

920 k PS4 

Those are terrible predictions, at least predict something that might happen Lmao 

December is the biggest year for anything so real bad predictions there. 



jason1637 on 17 December 2016
CGI-Quality said:
jason1637 said:

1. Im speaking of the combined sales from April-Oct if we add up all the sales the XB1 did better than the PS4, and with the rumored numbers from May-Nov if we add up all the sales the XB1 is ahead of the PS4.

 - Help me understand what you mean, here. I'm talking individual months (NPDs per month). Amazon predicted all but 4 months in 2016 correctly. April - June saw the PS4 ahead. What do combined sales have to do with that?

2. I wasn't aware the PS4 got a FF bundle. It hasnt been charting on Amazon and other retailers it hasn't been charting. But to casuals who are the people to  buy the most consoles this month a multi plat won't do much to convince them to get a PS4 over the XB1.

- So you must believe in Amazon's #s to know say that you didn't see the FFXV Bundle.

And, as for casuals, there are plenty of other things that will contribute to a PS4 purchase. FFXV's bundle will help, but it won't, necessarily be a deciding factor. It just is a factor, is what I'm saying.

- Again, my take.

1. I said Amazon predicted the latter half of the year incorrectly because they had PS4 above the XB1 while for the last six months XB1 has outsold the PS4 overall. But for individual months they were still wrong in July, Aug, Sept, and Oct. They got Nov right so hopefully Dec right. I'm just saying that we have seen Amazon wrong a lot recently so we shouldn't put as much faith in them as we used to.

2. You said it had a bundle i just wasn't aware of it because it hasn't been charting ANYWHERE, not only on amazon but anywhere and i haven't seen it in any store either. This is the first time im hearing of a FFXV PS4 bundle.

3. Yeah the FF bundle should help PS4 sales.



Aura7541 on 17 December 2016
jason1637 said:
CGI-Quality said:

- My take.

1. Im speaking of the combined sales from April-Oct if we add up all the sales the XB1 did better than the PS4, and with the rumored numbers from May-Nov if we add up all the sales the XB1 is ahead of the PS4.

2. I wasn't aware the PS4 got a FF bundle. It hasnt been charting on Amazon and other retailers it hasn't been charting. But to casuals who are the people to  buy the most consoles this month a multi plat won't do much to convince them to get a PS4 over the XB1.

1. I think the conversation has already gone off the rails from your original claim that Amazon has been wrong in the latter half of this year. It's worth noting that YTD, the PS4 still has sold more than the XBO. If the year ended at November NPD, the PS4 would have won 2016, which also coincides with Amazon's 2016 rankings.

2. The FFXV PS4 bundle was really limited and only available at certain stores, I believe. It did sell out, so whatever number of those bundles was shipped, that was amount of those bundles sold-through. I also disagree with the second sentence. FFXV favors the PS4 way way more than the XBO. The ratio in the UK was approximately 80% PS4/20% XBO despite that the hardware ratio is nowhere close to those percentages. Based on Abdiel's assessments, the US will likely follow suit. If we look at the 2016 rankings on Amazon, the regular PS4 version is #13 while the PS4 Deluxe version is #49. Neither of the XBO versions are in the Top 100. If we look at hourly charts, the PS4 version is #5 while the XBO version is all the way back at #70.

The skewed distribution of FFXV sales will influence the word of mouth of both versions. Because considerably more PS4 owners have FFXV than XBO owners, the PS4 version of FFXV will inherently have larger word of mouth. Because of this, FFXV has a substantially larger chance of convincing someone to get a PS4 than convincing someone to get an XBO.



EricHiggin on 17 December 2016

With $199 OG and $229 S prices, for such a short period, it looks like MS has almost calculated what they think is just enough to win this month. I'm sure they probably want to try and keep some momentum going into the new year without giving up to much. Two straight losses to PS4 again during the busy shopping season, and XB1S may sit fairly idle until Scorpio shows up.