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Forums - Sales Discussion - November 2016 NPD Thread! Hardware estimates in the OP!

Intrinsic said:
3sexty said:

Then obviously you have completely ignored or conveniently forgotten my recent posts in which I have repeatedly claimed the slim models of both consoles would always be the stronger sellers (and for the same reason I claimed Xbox One s has outperformed ps4 slim for offering additional value). In any case, I think you are completely missing an important point here. This (PS$ PRo) is a launch piece of hardware with months of preorders and yet we are obseerving a decline (compared to last year) in ps4 hardware for the month - this coupled of course with a super budget slim model..  Please read my previous posts for your own sake of clarity.

Now the whole Pro argument would make sende if we knew how muvh of that was shipped. As of the start of december even amazon didnt have stock for the PS4pro. If you wanted to or tried to buy a PS4pro last week you would have got an "item will be available December 13-15th" message.

What that should tell you is that sony didn't ship buttloadd of PS4pro's.

And this New hardware thing has to stop. It's not like it's new hardware coming in at a lower price point. Its new hardware designed specifically for a very small market segment that actually costs more than the original hardware. You should also take those into consideration before you start extrapolating deductions.

But tell you what, continue what you are doing, I'm not gonna get sucked into this anymore than I've already. let's wait and see who wins December, then January through April.... if XB1 is really doing all you are suggesting, then I expect them to win the majority of those months. And if that happens, then we can start saying Sony has a problem. In NA. 

Ok then mate. that is a fair comment. At the end of the day it is all really about opinions and how we see things progressing based on our own understanding of what is happening in the industry. Lets just wait and see like you say. It is an enjoyable topic to discuss nevertheless.



Xbox 360 and Xbox One

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It's weird how SIEA and SIEE operate very differently. SIEE was not hesitant to offer very compelling deals while SIEA prioritized revenue and let the major retailers offer their own deals.



Jranation said:
jason1637 said:

Yikes

There goes mine and ppls prediction of the PS4 breaking the Wii's record =(

 

I really thought it would due to Slim + VR + Pro

 

I think VR is a niche product and PS4P as well is not having huge benifits as of now. I will not be surprised if 80% of PS4 sales was from PS4S



 

exclusive_console said:
Jranation said:

There goes mine and ppls prediction of the PS4 breaking the Wii's record =(

 

I really thought it would due to Slim + VR + Pro

 

I think VR is a niche product and PS4P as well is not having huge benifits as of now. I will not be surprised if 80% of PS4 sales was from PS4S

After seeing this...... it does seem like it is. Im worried for Scorpio now. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Shadow1980 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

If consoles sold for the same price as last year, a 35% drop is would equal about 2.3M consoles. But we know the consoles sold for less so the 35% drop in revenue and consoles selling for cheaper would mean that more than 2.3M consoles were sold.

Sorry if that doesn't make sense, I'm crap at explaining.

Edit - apparently it includes handhelds and they are up  YoY so I'm still non the wiser 

Last year there were 3520k hardware units sold across all main platforms (excluding the Vita). The PS4 & XBO represented about 80.5% of that total, or 2835k units (the 3DS made up just under 10%, leaving about 9.5% for the Wii U, 360, & PS3). At minimum (i.e., assuming a $300 BF price tag), the PS4 & XBO generated $850M in revenue. With the rumored 2100k PS4+XBO total, they would have generated between $525-630M. The 3DS had to have generated at least $56M in revenue. If we assume the Wii U is down by half YoY, that means it generated about $36M. So, assuming Nintendo hardware generated at least $90M in revenue, that leaves at most around $634M for Sony & MS hardware, and with the Vita, 360, & PS3 essentially dead (they probably sold less than 100k units combined), we can probably assume at least $600M of that was just the PS4 & XBO.

With prices for the Slim models ranging from $250 to $300, that gives us anywhere from 2M to 2.4M in unit sales. With the $400 Pro being in the mix, the upper end of that range is unlikely. That rumored 2.1M total is plausible.

Even with both systems having cheaper slim models and the PS4 Pro being released, combined PS4 & XBO unit sales would have to be down year over year by at least 15.3% and, if the rumored 2.1M figure is true, by as much as 26%. Why sales would be down by so much YoY, I don't know. Maybe Black Friday is losing its influence. But in any case, it would be extremely disappointing. It means combined PS4+XBO YTD sales are so far down 8.6% YoY, a marginal improvement of where they were at the end of October, but considering the XBO had been up YoY from August to October and Sony had released the Pro, you would have thought unit sales would have been up a fair amount YoY in November. That doesn't appear to be the case.

December is going to have to see YoY unit sales growth for the PS4 & XBO of at least 24.9% to keep combined Nov.+Dec. sales from being down YoY overall.

FF XV mightn help push 100-200K Ps4s but idk, it helped in Japan sure.

There is no SW bundle or Black Ops 3 pushing HW, next year should be huge and in line with 2015s sales with RdR2, Destiny 2 and a GOOD OLD SCHOOL Call of Duty i can see a 199$ Cod Ps4 and Destiny 2 special White Ps4s with Rdr2 out in Nobember with a special edition, then a Horizon bundle in the Spring with Last Guardian or Mass Effect and Ps4 should have a insane year, plus Ps4 Pro price drop to 349$ and better VR supply.

We know in EMEA it will do huge numbers, let´s see in the US though and Japan, specially Japan since Switch is about to stomp everything over there, i mean Mario, Zelda and Splatoon in the same year will sky rocket Switch to the 4/5M sales in the first year. 



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3sexty said:
                            

Indeed!! but the best performing current gen console over the last 24 months overall has always been PS4..And now with the PS4 Pro launch -Nov should have been a breeze for Sony (like as in a huge sales gap).  Especially on the back of the PS4 Pro Nov launch combined with PSVR as well as PS4 Slim (and at a lower price!!) which are also very recent releases.  We should have seen a smashing November...But instead we are seeing a month down on hardware and possibly an almost tied position with Xbox (rumour seems to be gathering momentum [or support at least by other posters here] on this thread). That has to be concerning for Sony's future position in the U.S. I mean after all the PlayStation is still their main money maker there.  December should be very interesting indeed. Maybe Sony should have included the 4k upscaler and player on their slim model after all! add to this I think MS are well prepared to pour  even more money into gaming now especially with the latest news that Windows 10 has seen success with taking business away from Steam and their Surface line of products has seen the best month ever in terms of sales which generates even further cash for their services and devices business.

Shouldn't MS be worried about the usefulness of launching Scorpio next year? Why would a mid gen refresh do wonders for MS as it seems less and less likely that ps4 pro is revitalizing sales. The XBox One S is doing great because it's seen as the best value, best deals and a great upgrade to the original XBox One. While the ps4 slim is more expensive and doesn't have the same hype around it as the even more expensive pro is taking the spotlight.

Next year the pro is likely down a lot in price and the roles could be reversed. Scorpio will be taking the shine of the XBox One S, while the pro is the cheaper alternative seen to be just as good for 4K HDR experiences. It looks like the mid gen refresh is having the opposite effect atm, slowing down overall sales. That is if the rumored numbers are correct.

Btw 4k upscaler is kinda pointless if you look at input lag stats of current 4K tvs. The input lag is lower for many 4K tvs when receiving a 1080p signal and upscaling that themselves, compared to receiving a 4K signal and displaying that. Counter intuitive, yet for gaming it's better to leave the XBox One S in 1080p output mode. But true, it would have been better for marketing if ps4 slim could boast 4K upscaling as well. I guess Sony wanted to give the Pro a bigger advantage over the slim by making a clear distinction between 1080p slim and 4K pro. MS has made a bigger hurdle for themselves next year to promote a true 4K console over a 4K upscaled console. The XBox One S is already advertised as a 4K console here, more so than the ps4 pro even...



Great to see IW and BF1 take the top 2 spots. No doubt cod helped by cod4.

Fifa showing big growth in the US.



Kerotan said:
Great to see IW and BF1 take the top 2 spots. No doubt cod helped by cod4.

Fifa showing big growth in the US.

Just to let you kno that the charts are revenue. Pokemon took the top spot in units sold without digital (2.7mil+)



tbone51 said:
Kerotan said:
Great to see IW and BF1 take the top 2 spots. No doubt cod helped by cod4.

Fifa showing big growth in the US.

Just to let you kno that the charts are revenue. Pokemon took the top spot in units sold without digital (2.7mil+)

I know what they are and I'm delighted to see two series I like at #1 and #2.



ZhugeEX said:
The top 10 rankings are based on revenue, not units.

Oh so this has been the case ever since the recent reform?