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iNathan on 16 December 2016
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Shadow1980 said:
SWORDF1SH said:

If consoles sold for the same price as last year, a 35% drop is would equal about 2.3M consoles. But we know the consoles sold for less so the 35% drop in revenue and consoles selling for cheaper would mean that more than 2.3M consoles were sold.

Sorry if that doesn't make sense, I'm crap at explaining.

Edit - apparently it includes handhelds and they are up  YoY so I'm still non the wiser 

Last year there were 3520k hardware units sold across all main platforms (excluding the Vita). The PS4 & XBO represented about 80.5% of that total, or 2835k units (the 3DS made up just under 10%, leaving about 9.5% for the Wii U, 360, & PS3). At minimum (i.e., assuming a $300 BF price tag), the PS4 & XBO generated $850M in revenue. With the rumored 2100k PS4+XBO total, they would have generated between $525-630M. The 3DS had to have generated at least $56M in revenue. If we assume the Wii U is down by half YoY, that means it generated about $36M. So, assuming Nintendo hardware generated at least $90M in revenue, that leaves at most around $634M for Sony & MS hardware, and with the Vita, 360, & PS3 essentially dead (they probably sold less than 100k units combined), we can probably assume at least $600M of that was just the PS4 & XBO.

With prices for the Slim models ranging from $250 to $300, that gives us anywhere from 2M to 2.4M in unit sales. With the $400 Pro being in the mix, the upper end of that range is unlikely. That rumored 2.1M total is plausible.

Even with both systems having cheaper slim models and the PS4 Pro being released, combined PS4 & XBO unit sales would have to be down year over year by at least 15.3% and, if the rumored 2.1M figure is true, by as much as 26%. Why sales would be down by so much YoY, I don't know. Maybe Black Friday is losing its influence. But in any case, it would be extremely disappointing. It means combined PS4+XBO YTD sales are so far down 8.6% YoY, a marginal improvement of where they were at the end of October, but considering the XBO had been up YoY from August to October and Sony had released the Pro, you would have thought unit sales would have been up a fair amount YoY in November. That doesn't appear to be the case.

December is going to have to see YoY unit sales growth for the PS4 & XBO of at least 24.9% to keep combined Nov.+Dec. sales from being down YoY overall.

FF XV mightn help push 100-200K Ps4s but idk, it helped in Japan sure.

There is no SW bundle or Black Ops 3 pushing HW, next year should be huge and in line with 2015s sales with RdR2, Destiny 2 and a GOOD OLD SCHOOL Call of Duty i can see a 199$ Cod Ps4 and Destiny 2 special White Ps4s with Rdr2 out in Nobember with a special edition, then a Horizon bundle in the Spring with Last Guardian or Mass Effect and Ps4 should have a insane year, plus Ps4 Pro price drop to 349$ and better VR supply.

We know in EMEA it will do huge numbers, let´s see in the US though and Japan, specially Japan since Switch is about to stomp everything over there, i mean Mario, Zelda and Splatoon in the same year will sky rocket Switch to the 4/5M sales in the first year.