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Forums - Sales Discussion - October 2016 NPD Thread! Software and hardware estimates up!

SvennoJ on 21 November 2016
hudsoniscool said:
Intrinsic said:
how short of a memory some people seem to have. Its bad enough that they ignore every possible "obvious" reason why the XB1 has won these past 3/4 months. But most importantly they ignore the gap between the consoles just this year alone.

Someone should make a thread showing the NPD numbers for all the months of 2016 and people would be surprised.

It would really be interesting to see how November's numbers pan out. As I've said in another thread, it's possible that in just November or December PS4 can win by such a margin that negates every win MS has had this far. Even tho as it stands the PS4 is still ahead for the year.

And am I the only one that thinks those gears numbers especially considering it was bundled is bad? Scratch that, am I the only one that feels on such a month and with all the bundles MS had and their ogXB1 fire saless a lead of just over 90k is really bad?

I seam to recall a lot of Sony guys saying PS4 would win October. With  psvr and the PS4slim(don't recall when it released, late September/early October). Short memory indead. Also I don't have a big problem with those gears numbers, it's down from judgement a little but digital is much higher, and it had 4 day early play with digital, and play anywhere.

Is there any info on psvr sales? Maybe I missed it.

I expect PSVR is mostly selling to existing costumers and will dampen pro sales a little. Most people can't afford both. So PSVR is likely having more of a negative effect on double dippers, instead of selling more consoles to new customers at this point in time. Especially with zero marketing for PSVR and no complete bundles or anything.
Although it could be the other way around and PSVR early adopters are more likely to get a pro, I did.



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WoodenPints on 21 November 2016
Intrinsic said:
WoodenPints said:

The thing is early in the year everyone expected PS4 to outsell the Xbox One and not jujst by a small margin, Around this site all the Sony side were saying that Xbox One wouldn't win another month after August this year and the users who look at the bigger picture were expecting close margins in either sides favour through September and October which turned out bigger than most people thought in favour of the Xbox One.

It's not really about Xbox beating the PS4 across the entire 2016 as I said it's expected but rather Sony need to answer this November with big numbers pushing 1.8m-2m at a minimum imo to show that the PS4 Pro did infact take a lot of orders away from the PS4 slim in September/October and they are not loosing some of the momentum whilst Xbox is gaining it, If they don't hit them numbers and outsell Xbox One by 500k I'd consider it a big let down for Sony.

I agree with you. If sony doesn't beat MS by at lewst 500k over novemeber and december i would also look at that as a disappointment. 

If you meant 500k in the month of November alone though that's not being very realistic. Especially when you consider that the sales difference over the months of September and October is around just 150k. And those are the months we can say that the PS4pro cannibalized sales. I don't see why Sony needs to sell 500k more in the minth of November alone. 200-300k more would be enough. 

My thoughts behind doing them numbers in November is last year they outsold the Xbox One by 250k which they should want to keep that number around there for pure sales in November and if we say the Pro has took 150k-200k pre-orders in the 9 weeks before it launches away from the slim it needs to push this amount on top of the gap from last November to also show a healthy YoY growth.



Ryng on 21 November 2016
Swordmasterman said:

Sun and Moon will be a big success. I think that it will be able to make up for the difference of sales  between  IWand Black Ops 3 

It will, true, but it won't close the gap with Fallout 4 and Star Wars. Last year November was crazy in term of release. I believe next month we are going to see something like this:

5 million
Black Ops III
4 million
Pokémon SuMo
3 million
Infinite Warfare
Fallout 4
2.5 million
Star Wars Battlefront
2 million
1 million
Watch Dogs 2



Ryng on 21 November 2016

For all users, if you enjoy Claire data you should follow here on twitter, she always like reply to you guys if you want to know something.

Just DM her.



numberss on 21 November 2016
Madword said:
Welfare said:

What? The PS4 is down 14% YoY and XB1 is up 8% YoY. There was no OGXB1 firesale and OGXB1 did not have a major impact on unit sales or revenue this month. A 94k lead is really good for October.

I've seen people say there have been massive sales in stores, certainly thats been the case in the UK. Down to 179 in places. Sure someone can clarify, perhaps trade in's have had a bigger impact that people assumed?

UK =/ US
yes, the UK had firesales for Original Xbox One and Ps4 down to 149 quid including a game....

in the US, tho original Ps4 and XB1 was down to $279
no a fire sale at all, when you can get the new model for less on black friday ;)



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RJ_Sizzle on 21 November 2016

Gears bundle seemed to do well. As for Gears itself... oh boy. Not just to come down on just Gears, but it seems like a lot of games this holiday are either underperforming, or are non-starters altogether. That buyers apathy that was killing devs last gen is starting to return. Except the games are pretty decent this time around.



poklane on 21 November 2016

Even more via Aquamarine (Astronaut Claire): https://twitter.com/AstronautClaire

  • At Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail Software, Madden NFL 17 sold 304K this month (+23% from last year's 248K), but cumulatively it's down -12%
  • At Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW, FIFA 17 sold 301K, up +36% from last year's 221K, reflecting soccer's burgeoning popularity in the USA
  • FIFA 17 has sold 737K in the USA Lifetime-to-date, compared to FIFA 16's 856K, but you can explain this -14% decrease from increased digital
  • NBA 2K17 sold 293K at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW, down -29% from last year's 410K, but lifetime sales of 1599K are still +5%
  • Love it or hate it, the new WWE 2K17 sold 283K in its debut at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW, +26% from WWE 2K16's launch (225K)
  • Nintedo's most popular game at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW was Paper Mario Color Splash which sold around ~100K. OK considering Wii U is dead
  • I thought 's Yokai Watch 2 would have more momentum this month at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW, but apparently not. Below 50K AGAIN
  • Although the real disaster for Nintendo at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW is the abysmal debut of Disney Magical World 2. SUPER low (think 10K)
  • Nintendo's Dragon Quest VII 3DS had poor legs at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW, outsold by ancient SW like Pokemon X/Y, Pokken, Super Smash Bros
  • Remember Just Dance? Ubisoft released Just Dance 2017 at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW and it sold poorly at <30K (even The Division sold more)
  • Guitar Hero Live Supreme Party Edition also released at Oct 2016 NPD USA Retail SW! That's right! More old franchises! Too bad it sold <10K
  • On a more positive note, Bandai Namco's Dragonball Xenoverse 2 sold ~200K this month at Oct 2016 NPD USA SW, despite being launched late Oct

Also personal guess from her: she thinks EA will not produce Titanfall 3. That means Respawn will have to find a new publisher (unless they can self-publish a $60 game which I highly doubt) or they'll have to put the IP away for now.



gcwy on 21 November 2016

Damn I did not expect it to win by such a margin. I think PS4 will take Nov, but there's a possibility it might not. However, I can't say for Dec.



Intrinsic on 21 November 2016
RJ_Sizzle said:
Gears bundle seemed to do well. As for Gears itself... oh boy. Not just to come down on just Gears, but it seems like a lot of games this holiday are either underperforming, or are non-starters altogether. That buyers apathy that was killing devs last gen is starting to return. Except the games are pretty decent this time around.

I don't think there is a buyer's apathy at all.Cause it's obvious some titles did better than most. 

I think the simple issue is that publishers really really really need to space out their game releases better. They literally throw everything at controversial and November and some how expect gamers to go and buy everything in the same month. Just makes zero sense to me. 



barneystinson69 on 21 November 2016
TheGamer95 said:
Battlefield 1 only selling 1.3m in 2 weeks is quite dissapointing. Really curious on how this years cod numbers turn out.

Vgchartz is probably overtracking sales significantly (it did the same with Battlefield 3). Battlefield 3 did around 2 million in its FM, and that is generally considered the peak of the franchise. Keep in mind BF4 did around 15 million but did 50% less than BF1, so that should be the min base line for the game, and probably closer to 20 million that 15.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).