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Forums - Gaming Discussion - I'm feeling the Switch will struggle to sell 10 million units.

I think Switch will neither really satisfy the sky-high Nintendo enthusiasts, but nor will it satisfy the "Nintendo is doomed" crowd, lol.

That's because I think it will perform right in the middle.

It won't stop Nintendo's declining hardware numbers nor will be it be a credible "home console" (it will be mainly 3DS owners buying it).

But it won't "flop" either. It's a Nintendo portable, there's still a good 12-15 million people in each of the three major territories willing to buy one I think unless Nintendo make multiple stupid decisions. 



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This is ridiculous. People are failing to realize this is Nintendo's new handheld, not just new console. Nintendo handhelds always sell solid numbers, and the Switch is a handheld. 40m lifetime worst case scenario. The gen 8 pokemon games alone will guarantee 20m units. 



Poojipoo said:
Remember, the Switch is (basically) a handheld, and Nintendo's handhelds tend to do really well. 3DS struggled at first but as soon as enticing games came out for it, it picked up steam quite a bit. If the Switch gets good exclusives, the Switch will do fine.

The 3DS took off after a huge price drop.  



twintail said:
I think all these assumptions on sales potential is somewhat pointless without the Jan event.
That will better allow us to contextualise how we feel the Switch will do.

I don't really expect any mind blowing things at the Jan event. 

It'll have Mario. Pokemon. Splatoon, etc. Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest, a few throw in Western ports that Nintendo gets at the start of every generation cycle before they bail out. Maaaaaaybe something like Final Fantasy VII Remake port. Maaaaaaaaaybe. 

There'll be some funky/gimmicky Joy Con add-ons for specific games. 

$250-$300. 

Nintendo fans will get over excited, "Nintendo is doomed" folkes will be overly critical, reality will end up somewhere in the middle. 

The concept of the Switch was the big mystery, now that we know that we know more or less where it stands. 



Rafie said:
I'm rooting for it to do respectable numbers. Competition is good!

Absolutely.  Nintendo is an important player in the video game business.  They innovate with hardware *and* software.  I hope they kick some ass with this one, so we don't end up with two identical machines playing nothing but open world games.  



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VAMatt said:
Poojipoo said:
Remember, the Switch is (basically) a handheld, and Nintendo's handhelds tend to do really well. 3DS struggled at first but as soon as enticing games came out for it, it picked up steam quite a bit. If the Switch gets good exclusives, the Switch will do fine.

The 3DS took off after a huge price drop.  

It still would have sold well once Pokemon hit. That is always their insurance gold mine. 



Nuvendil said:
spemanig said:
I mean, even with how much I've bashed the Switch for it's rumored space issues, I think that it's guaranteed to sell at least 30m units as long as it has mainline Pokemon.

I don't even think it needs Pokemon for that, so long as it has a lot of great games (and Zelda is an excellent start).  It mainly needs a marketing campaign written by someone who isn't either drunk or suffering from a near-fatal head injury.  The Wii U could have been a 4 by 4 inch cube with the power of 3 PS4s and would have struggled for success with the trainwreck of uninformative, clumsy, generic, sometimes even outright embarrassing adds that the Wii U had.  If Nintendo screws that up again the Switch will struggle.  So far looks like they have that going in the right direction, but we'll see.  

I mean, from what we know, the whole 16/32/128 thing is pretty much the worse news we could hear about the thing, so without a mega franchise like Pokemon, I don't see it selling more than 15m, maybe 20m. Wii U had Mario Kart, and that didn't help it hit 15m. No matter how good Zelda is, I don't see it doing much better without Pokemon.



CGI-Quality said:
VAMatt said:

Absolutely.  Nintendo is an important player in the video game business.  They innovate with hardware *and* software.  I hope they kick some ass with this one, so we don't end up with two identical machines playing nothing but open world games.  

Good thing we don't have that, even now.

The PS4 and XBO are practically indistinguishable aside from the handful of exclusives. Back in the PS3/360 era the 360 set itself apart with incredible forward thinking online feartures before those became the norm for both platforms this gen, and the PS3 set itself apart with a massive lineup of amazing exclusives before most of those went muli-plat this gen. Now you have Forza, Halo, and Gears of War on XBO, and Naughty Dog games, (some) Insomniac games, and God of War on PS4 and that's about the only thing to set the two apart. We sure as hell don't need a 3rd system like them. 



I think fundamentally the basic concept is legit though. Unlike Wii U tablet.
Basically it works, EVERYBODY can see that, and can benefit from it somewhat.
Unless somebody never leaves their home, there is value there and it makes sense.
Now, power, pricing, and of course games are all valid, but it doesn't have a gimped concept like Wii U.

 

Too much of spec analysis IMHO has been focused on comparison to Xbone/PS4.
It's not that, obviously, but once that is out of way, that isn't the issue.
The issue is whether it is sufficient for next gen of NINTENDO games.
For those, the hardware is very likely sufficient for 1080p, 60fps, even higher FX/lighting/materials.
I am of opinion pushing the hardware to max is important for Nintendo to do,
and believe they  should leverage 10nm fabs, dock-mode upclock/core-unlock/RAM, to enable that to happen,
but ultimately it is not about ports from core-gaming duo, but next gen Nintendo experience.



HyrulianScrolls said:
VAMatt said:

The 3DS took off after a huge price drop.  

It still would have sold well once Pokemon hit. That is always their insurance gold mine. 

Maybe so.  But, that's just speculation.  It has been proven time and time again that pricing is hugely important to the success of a system.