Shadow1980 said:
binary solo said:
Will this be the peak Black Friday for 8th gen console sales? There's a chance Scorpio will cause Xb one to peak on BF 2017, but if it's a premium console at a premium price then it would have to be huge sales for Scorpio to bring a new high in BF sales for Xb one, and if PS4 starts it's decline next year and Switch being in full swing (and Wii U and 3DS being dead) it almost certainly still means that 8th gen as a whole has peaked this year. Unless people are going to cheat and call Switch an 8th gen machine, which I guess depends on how you define a generation. |
Hard to say. Last November the PS4 and XBO took the #3 and #6 spots for all-time best November performances ever:
Combined they sold over 2.8M units. It was the second-biggest November ever for combined PS+Xbox sales, excluding Nov. 2013, which saw the record-setting launches for the PS4 & XBO. Due to the release of slimline models and the Pro, combined PS+Xbox sales should be well over 3 million units for this month.
So, we're already dealing with record-setting Novembers (though we're not seeing record-setting Decembers, likely because of increased emphasis on Black Friday shifting the Nov.-Dec. balance; last December was only the fifth-highest Dec. for combined PS+XB sales). But can we keep breaking those records this generation? Hard to say, really. Temporary price cuts to $250 for slim bundles, plus the launch of the Pro could very well make this the #1 holiday for these systems this year. While we could see the Slim models cut to $200 next year on BF after a likely permanent reduction to $250 in the coming months, it's entirely possible that could fail to generate the level of sales we could see this year. We know from numerous historical examples that over time price cuts have diminished effect on sales, especially after a system has passed its peak. Every system reaches a "sweet spot" price where sales reach their maximum potential. As the system reaches saturation, future price cuts are simply trying to squeeze more sales out of an ever-drying towel. However, while these mid- to late-life price cuts may fail to produce significant long-term growth and reverse the trend of declining sales, they can and often do produce noticeable short-term growth.
So, it's impossible to say if reducing the slim models to $200 next BF will help them any. However, the 4K models are wild cards here. The Pro could see a reduction to $300 next year, and the launch of the Scorpio could be rather big as well if it has a reasonable launch price. They could easily offset any YoY decline in slim sales.
Right now, I'd give next November a flat-out 50/50 chance of surpassing this November. However, I think Nov. 2018 will be down from Nov. 2017 regardless. Next year should definitely be the peak in combined PlayStation & Xbox sales.
Now, if the Switch does well, next November will definitely surpass this one for total console sales across all three brands.
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