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Forums - Sales Discussion - Early Nintendo Switch Sales Predictions

Xen on 20 October 2016

25-30mln LTD. Even at that, I am feeling like I am significantly overrating it.



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Nautilus on 20 October 2016

100+ million lifetime.Im going to make a thread today to explain myself.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Darwinianevolution on 20 October 2016

I believe that, if Nintendo manages a good launch and keeps droughts in check, it coud reach 50m units. 60m at best. The bulk of the profits are going to be the software sales.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Lawlight on 20 October 2016

20M. This topic reminds me of the WiiU one where 60M was about the consensus.



Luke888 on 20 October 2016

I'm going to say 70M lifetime



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Jizz_Beard_thePirate on 20 October 2016

Its impossible without knowing the price. If its $250, 70 million, if its $300, 55 million. Anything higher... RIP. Provided Nintendo doesn't have any other device in the works.



                  

PC Specs: CPU: 7800X3D || GPU: Strix 4090 || RAM: 32GB DDR5 6000 || Main SSD: WD 2TB SN850

Lawlight on 20 October 2016
trunkswd said:
Lawlight said:
20M. This topic reminds me of the WiiU one where 60M was about the consensus.

These are just early guesses. I expect most of us to be way off. 

Sure but it'll be great for people to explain why they think it'll be that number. Mine is because of the general Nintendo console trend.



Volterra_90 on 20 October 2016

I think that this is it, Nintendo handheld + home console. So, maybe about 80M, which is more or less the current user base. And I think it's a safe bet, if they're not planning on releasing another handheld, which I think it's pretty much pointless right now. It's obvious that it won't sell 20M like some people are claiming. 80 might be a bit too much, but I think it's realistic. 50M minimum. C'mon, Pokémon games, Mario games, will all come in the same console. No way this could sell that quantity. I'll eat crow gladly if that happen though XD.



h2ohno on 20 October 2016

It'll do great in japan, less so in the rest of the world.

As a hybrid it can tap into the handheld market which has always been bigger for Nintendo than the home console market. Plus with the combined approach development won't be split between 2 systems, meaning more games for the switch, and more games means more sales.

So depending on the price, battery life, and marketing it could be anywhere from 30-60 million in total sales. If everything plays out right I could see it rivaling the 3DS in sales.



Lawlight on 20 October 2016
Volterra_90 said:

I think that this is it, Nintendo handheld + home console. So, maybe about 80M, which is more or less the current user base. And I think it's a safe bet, if they're not planning on releasing another handheld, which I think it's pretty much pointless right now. It's obvious that it won't sell 20M like some people are claiming. 80 might be a bit too much, but I think it's realistic. 50M minimum. C'mon, Pokémon games, Mario games, will all come in the same console. No way this could sell that quantity. I'll eat crow gladly if that happen though XD.

Here's what you're not taking into consideration:

1. These userbases overlap. So, how many WiiU owners don't own a 3DS?

2. Multiple revisions. The 3DS has had so many revisions that there's a bit overlap between buyers.

3. Price. You can get a 2DS for than $100 and 3DS XLs for less than $150. Keep in mind that the 3DS sales only took off when the price was cut to $169. Will the Switch go for those prices?