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Forums - Sales Discussion - PREDICTION: Pokémon moon and sun will sells over 20 million

 

Pokémon Sun and moon predictions

15 million or less 91 39.91%
 
16 million 42 18.42%
 
17 million 19 8.33%
 
18 million 19 8.33%
 
19 million 9 3.95%
 
20 million 24 10.53%
 
21 million 3 1.32%
 
22 million 2 0.88%
 
23 million 1 0.44%
 
24 million or more 18 7.89%
 
Total:228
Barkley on 31 January 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:

The game sold a bit less than expected, so right now my 20 million prediction looks a bit exagerate, but it should still easy surpass 18 million, probabily 19 million.

So whatever it sell at the end, is not like i'll care that much about 20 million or not, all i care is that my prediction will be closer than every 15/16 million predictions.

Well it shipped just 140k units from September 30th to December 31st over the holiday season and now sits at 16.05m

So it's safe to say 15/16m will both be closer then the 20m prediction.



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StarOcean on 31 January 2018

It’ll hit 17/18mil LT. USUM hurt the momentum a bit



Barkley on 31 January 2018
StarOcean said:
It’ll hit 17/18mil LT. USUM hurt the momentum a bit

I'd say that's too much, over the past 3 quarters (so since March 31st) it's shipped just 610k. With the latest quarter (when ultra released) just 140k despite being the holidays.

With the decline of the 3ds and ultra I don't see it shipping much more than another 500k, it could reach 17m but I think it's an outside chance.


Q4 2016 - 14.69m
Q1 2017 - 0.75m
Q2 2017 - 0.23m
Q3 2017 - 0.24m
Q4 2017 - 0.14m

I don't see any reason for it's shipments to increase, nor stop declining
.



tbone51 on 31 January 2018
Barkley said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

The game sold a bit less than expected, so right now my 20 million prediction looks a bit exagerate, but it should still easy surpass 18 million, probabily 19 million.

So whatever it sell at the end, is not like i'll care that much about 20 million or not, all i care is that my prediction will be closer than every 15/16 million predictions.

Well it shipped just 140k units from September 30th to December 31st over the holiday season and now sits at 16.05m

So it's safe to say 15/16m will both be closer then the 20m prediction.

Dont forget to bump some of your predictions now as well ;)



Barkley on 31 January 2018
tbone51 said:
Barkley said:

Well it shipped just 140k units from September 30th to December 31st over the holiday season and now sits at 16.05m

So it's safe to say 15/16m will both be closer then the 20m prediction.

Dont forget to bump some of your predictions now as well ;)

Don't worry I already bumped the Splatoon 2 fuck up. The Switch sales for end of the year I messed up also, original range 12.5-13.5m, in actuality it's probably 13.5-14m, but I gave a 12.4-12.8m range after VGC released more figures. Made the mistake of thinking that if their tracking was spot on for USA/Japan/France they couldn't be that far off on EU+ROW.



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tbone51 on 31 January 2018
Barkley said:
tbone51 said:

Dont forget to bump some of your predictions now as well ;)

Don't worry I already bumped the Splatoon 2 fuck up.

Who F up? I need to see pls!!



Barkley on 31 January 2018
tbone51 said:
Barkley said:

Don't worry I already bumped the Splatoon 2 fuck up.

Who F up? I need to see pls!!

Somehow I got Splatoon 2 mixed up with BOTW... wow.

"Nah I don't think so, it's possible... but I don't think it will. I'm favouring the 7.5m mark."

While we're on the subject of my bad predictions, I think I said 2.5m lifetime for Monster Hunter on PS4 when it was announced.



VGPolyglot on 31 January 2018

It doesn't look like it will reach it now, Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon seemed to have chopped its legs off.



Ryng on 31 January 2018

Yeah, with the most recent numbers, this game will probabily only do 17 million lifetime, maybe 18 million but that's absolutely the best scenario.

A 15m prediction was probabily better than 20m, we'll see i guess.



Barkley on 31 January 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:
Yeah, with the most recent numbers, this game will probabily only do 17 million lifetime, maybe 18 million but that's absolutely the best scenario.

A 15m prediction was probabily better than 20m, we'll see i guess.

How?

Q4 2016 - 14.69m
Q1 2017 - 0.75m
Q2 2017 - 0.23m
Q3 2017 - 0.24m
Q4 2017 - 0.14m

Another 950k would be a stretch, but you're saying maybe 1.95m? o.O

Surely it's quarterly shipments will only decline from here, for it to reach 18m it would have to ship the same as it did in Q4 for  every quarter for another 4 and a half years.