Assuming that TT gets only $5 from each download (but reports say they could get it ALL), they would get $10 million from 2 million downloads. If they get it all, it would be $30 million.

Does anyone actually believe the DLC will cost more than $10 million to produce? Add to this the fact TT got a $50 million loan when they needed it, and the fact that MS has guaranteed they wont lose cash on the deal, and it starts to look like a good deal for TT.

Why do people think GTA will do so well on xbox, since when is it a FPS ?

I could have told you this...

Uhhhhh, probaby the same reason non-FPS games like Rock Band, Guitar Hero, Mass Effect, Marvel Ultimate Alliance, Assasins Creed, Devil May Cry, Forza and Oblivion did pretty well.

I think it'll be around 1.5 : 1 and best case for 360 2 : 1 looking at DMC4 split (only real evidence of a former PS game going across both consoles) and allowing for a boost on 360 side from the DLC plus US swinging things in 360 favour somewhat more as well.

I think GTA IV on 360 will outsell PS3 GTA IV by 2:1 but only in america, ww I expect them to be nearly equal. If a GTA IV bundle came that would be a huge blow to MS, especially give n the strength of th Sony/Playstation name in europe.

Its not an idiotic prediction.  He is right - alot of GTAIV fans won't care about downloadable content, and the 9 million figure is within one fiscal year, i.e. only through Spring 09', it isn't lifetime sales.  Halo 3, the defining 360 experience has been out for half a year and its not at 8 million yet, and sales are not going to perk up again for months.  GTAIV will see a lower first week than Halo 3 in terms of attach rate for each system but have better legs going forward, and then get a massive boost late in the fiscal year for Take Two when the holidays.

Reasonable, I don't think you should make conclusions because of DMC4. Remember that DMC4 (PS3 version) got 1/3 of its sales from Japan, and that won't be the case on GTA IV.

I expect it to be close call in Europe, could go either way, but pretty equal. In US, the 360 version will dominate, just because the install base of 360 is 2,5 times as big as PS3's.

Then you have to consider the effect of price difference between the two. Some people will surely buy a new console just for GTA, and there the price may get it to 360's favour.

At this point the install bases (US and Others):

Xbox 360: 17,17 M
PS3: 9,07 M

When you look at that, it is very unlikely that the PS3 version would sell equal with 360 version ww, like some people think. It will propably go like 2:1 or at least 1,5:1.

I don't bloody think so. Oblivion sold much better on the 360 than it did on the PS3. Why would they make Fallout 3 PS3 exclusive? That would be sheer stupidity.

GTA is a to big title in Europe for this to happen ... hell , the PS3 version could even get a 400k lead from Japan ...