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Forums - Politics Discussion - The Canadian economy is doing terrible...

 

How are these numbers?

Beyond awful! I thought C... 8 33.33%
 
Awful, but no surprise at... 12 50.00%
 
Better than I expected! 4 16.67%
 
Total:24
Soundwave on 05 August 2016
barneystinson69 said:
Soundwave said:

Because the economy is not a video game, certain things take longer to impact an economy for example, the bulk of manufacturing being down is in Alberta and BC which is expected because everything is down in Western Canada. People are spending less in those provinces too which is expected but it's not good for the economy. 

The days in Alberta of people blowing big money on luxury SUVs on a whim and all that have definitely ground to a halt and other industries in those areas are shutting down too. 

The low price of oil will dog Canada through 2017 at minimum and there is no government policy that will change that ... that's the reality of it. Canada's economy centers mainly around natural resource exports chiefly oil, you cripple that industry and the economy is simply not going to grow at the same rate, no way. It would be like being stunned that Saudi Arabia's economy is performing lower. Russia has been walloped hard by low oil prices too, worse than Canada actually. Is Putin too Trudeau like? Nope, lol. Oil is a big deal. 

The economy is not down because of transgender washrooms or whatever group you want to scapegoat it on. 

So the fall in Ontario's economy must be because prices are low in Alberta? That makes sense. And consumer spending must be spending must be lower in all of Canada because of Alberta. Yup, I totally get it. Now yes, my jab at Trudeau may have been a bit unfair, but then what exactly is he doing? He put us 30 billion in a hole, so what is he doing with the money? Consumer spending is falling in Canada because of the low Canadian dollar, which leads to higher prices. The dollar was devalued to help manufacturing, but they're leaving in droves because of just how high expenses are in Ontario. What are we going to do? Yes, I will remove that Trudeau jab in my post, but he is responsible for this country. People would've betrated Harper if the economy was doing this bad (as would I), and he would've deserved it. 

Well actually in the article that you linked to, several parts of the economy are actually up (public sector, finance sector, wholesale, retail even).

 

The huge drop is mainly from oil production and manufacturing and I suspect there is a link there, as the main drop in manufacturing apparently is on the West Coast, which would make sense because I don't think anyone is eager to invest in Western Canada when the oil industry is this bad. Construction being down makes sense too as there are huge construction projects in Alberta which has become famous for construction cranes dotting the landscape, a lot of those projects have probably been shelved or put on hold. 

A big chunk of that manufacturing is from Alberta's drop because many manufacturing industries tie in to the oil industry:

https://www.albertacanada.com/files/albertacanada/SP-Commentary_01-18-16.pdf

Ontario has had long seated issues with manufacturing for a long time now too, at least a decade, they are simply not competing well enough to boot. 

But if you flip the oil from above, the economy would be pretty good. 



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barneystinson69 on 05 August 2016
Acevil said:
barneystinson69 said:

Alright, you got me there. I'm not an economist, so my knowledge only goes so far. But since you brought it up, how about you start with the first shot.

Lagging indicator of downturn or an upturn in economic sense is unemployment (one of the indicators, but that was the one of the key thing you first brought up). Usually decisions made in 2014, will reflect late early 2014 to all of 2015. Decisions made in early 2015 will reflect late 2015 and 2016 and so on. So the downturn in Canadian economics right now is based on various factors, but most importantly in purely you must blame a government (which is totally unfair, because it really is downturn of Oil that is effecting everything, but I want to again take this step by step, and not jump into two or three economic theories ahead), it would be the people in charge of 2015 policy decisions. 

Well unemployment (officially) isn't doing all that bad. But participation rate is falling. Either way, the Liberals already pushed out their budget in March, meaning they should already have influence on the economy. The budget you produce only has an effect on that fiscal year. While it could have an effect on the future, you can't tell me what was the produced last year with effect the entire year, because those were all impletmented last year. But I see your point, and obviously forming an argument is becoming harder. But they're the ones in power, they produced their first budget, so they should take responsibility for what happens this fiscal year.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

barneystinson69 on 05 August 2016
Soundwave said:
barneystinson69 said:

So the fall in Ontario's economy must be because prices are low in Alberta? That makes sense. And consumer spending must be spending must be lower in all of Canada because of Alberta. Yup, I totally get it. Now yes, my jab at Trudeau may have been a bit unfair, but then what exactly is he doing? He put us 30 billion in a hole, so what is he doing with the money? Consumer spending is falling in Canada because of the low Canadian dollar, which leads to higher prices. The dollar was devalued to help manufacturing, but they're leaving in droves because of just how high expenses are in Ontario. What are we going to do? Yes, I will remove that Trudeau jab in my post, but he is responsible for this country. People would've betrated Harper if the economy was doing this bad (as would I), and he would've deserved it. 

Well actually in the article that you linked to, several parts of the economy are actually up (public sector, finance sector, wholesale, retail even).

 

The huge drop is mainly from oil production and manufacturing and I suspect there is a link there, as the main drop in manufacturing apparently is on the West Coast, which would make sense because I don't think anyone is eager to invest in Western Canada when the oil industry is this bad. Construction being down makes sense too as there are huge construction projects in Alberta which has become famous for construction cranes dotting the landscape, a lot of those projects have probably been shelved or put on hold. 

A big chunk of that manufacturing is from Alberta's drop because many manufacturing industries tie in to the oil industry:

https://www.albertacanada.com/files/albertacanada/SP-Commentary_01-18-16.pdf

Ontario has had long seated issues with manufacturing for a long time now too, at least a decade, they are simply not competing well enough to boot. 

But if you flip the oil from above, the economy would be pretty good. 

Really? Because Ontario lost 36,000 jobs. While I can't find numbers of where the lost came from, we could assume that the majority of that came from manufacturing, because of how much the sector shrunk. And as far as I know, Ontario has ALWAYS been the manufacturing heart of Canada. Alberta produces a small amount, but it doesn't have nearly the same effect.

What also worries me is that everything that went up was SERVICES! This is an extremely worrying trend, as it means we don't actually produce anything. What you've shown doesn't make me feel better, it just makes it clear the economy will soon totally rely on consumer spending just to see growth.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Acevil on 05 August 2016
barneystinson69 said:
Acevil said:

Lagging indicator of downturn or an upturn in economic sense is unemployment (one of the indicators, but that was the one of the key thing you first brought up). Usually decisions made in 2014, will reflect late early 2014 to all of 2015. Decisions made in early 2015 will reflect late 2015 and 2016 and so on. So the downturn in Canadian economics right now is based on various factors, but most importantly in purely you must blame a government (which is totally unfair, because it really is downturn of Oil that is effecting everything, but I want to again take this step by step, and not jump into two or three economic theories ahead), it would be the people in charge of 2015 policy decisions. 

Well unemployment (officially) isn't doing all that bad. But participation rate is falling. Either way, the Liberals already pushed out their budget in March, meaning they should already have influence on the economy. The budget you produce only has an effect on that fiscal year. While it could have an effect on the future, you can't tell me what was the produced last year with effect the entire year, because those were all impletmented last year. But I see your point, and obviously forming an argument is becoming harder. But they're the ones in power, they produced their first budget, so they should take responsibility for what happens this fiscal year.

Again, the effects of whatever he is doing won't be felt until late this year or next year (If Unemployment rate jumps above 7.0%, come call me up, we can blame the liberals (even if it isn't their fault), but which brings as point number 2, read soundwave completely, word for word, he showcases reflection of the decline of Oil and how industries can be linked to one another. 

Codependence of industry, to form the magical buzzword Synergy. 

(This will be good time, to actually do some work, before I get back either). 



 

barneystinson69 on 05 August 2016
Acevil said:
barneystinson69 said:

Well unemployment (officially) isn't doing all that bad. But participation rate is falling. Either way, the Liberals already pushed out their budget in March, meaning they should already have influence on the economy. The budget you produce only has an effect on that fiscal year. While it could have an effect on the future, you can't tell me what was the produced last year with effect the entire year, because those were all impletmented last year. But I see your point, and obviously forming an argument is becoming harder. But they're the ones in power, they produced their first budget, so they should take responsibility for what happens this fiscal year.

Again, the effects of whatever he is doing won't be felt until late this year or next year (If Unemployment rate jumps above 7.0%, come call me up, we can blame the liberals (even if it isn't their fault), but which brings as point number 2, read soundwave completely, word for word, he showcases reflection of the decline of Oil. 

But I'm not totally blaming the liberals. Yes, I understand the Conservative's are partly responsible, but they're the ones in power federally. If we really want to play the blame game, we blame the Alberta NDP and Ontario liberals for how poorly they're managing their economies. 



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

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Acevil on 05 August 2016
barneystinson69 said:
Acevil said:

Again, the effects of whatever he is doing won't be felt until late this year or next year (If Unemployment rate jumps above 7.0%, come call me up, we can blame the liberals (even if it isn't their fault), but which brings as point number 2, read soundwave completely, word for word, he showcases reflection of the decline of Oil. 

But I'm not totally blaming the liberals. Yes, I understand the Conservative's are partly responsible, but they're the ones in power federally. If we really want to play the blame game, we blame the Alberta NDP and Ontario liberals for how poorly they're managing their economies. 

Not really to the first one, I don't have time to explain that (given they are not going to help, NDP never truthfully helps anyone). Yes, you can blame the Ontario Liberals, however a lot of bad decisions are being felt from Bob Rae (early 90s), but again I cannot go into history either, and how it plays to into this either. Just listen to Soundwave's lesson on Oil. 

Also one last thing before I focus directly on work for an hour or so. As much as we can do, we are also codependent on the world's economy more so than a lot of countries. Again this is very complex issues that you literally have to spend time doing research to fully grasp it. 



 

Soundwave on 05 August 2016

Canada isn't a production economy really, never has been. It gets by on its wealth of natural resources and the most valuable resource by far is obviously oil. That's just the way it is and there is no quick fix to that.

Russia is in the same boat but they are getting absolutely wrecked, Canada is weathering the storm reasonably well all things considered (going from oil at 100+ for several years to crashing back down to as low as the 30s this year).



Leadified on 05 August 2016
barneystinson69 said:
Acevil said:

Again, the effects of whatever he is doing won't be felt until late this year or next year (If Unemployment rate jumps above 7.0%, come call me up, we can blame the liberals (even if it isn't their fault), but which brings as point number 2, read soundwave completely, word for word, he showcases reflection of the decline of Oil. 

But I'm not totally blaming the liberals. Yes, I understand the Conservative's are partly responsible, but they're the ones in power federally. If we really want to play the blame game, we blame the Alberta NDP and Ontario liberals for how poorly they're managing their economies. 

Ontario has been making a string of bad decisions since the 90s, it's just something we're good at. To be fair, things aren't that bad outside of manufacturing so it could be a lot worse.

Going to move this thread to politics since this is more political than just general discussion.



barneystinson69 on 05 August 2016
Leadified said:
barneystinson69 said:

But I'm not totally blaming the liberals. Yes, I understand the Conservative's are partly responsible, but they're the ones in power federally. If we really want to play the blame game, we blame the Alberta NDP and Ontario liberals for how poorly they're managing their economies. 

Ontario has been making a string of bad decisions since the 90s, it's just something we're good at. To be fair, things aren't that bad outside of manufacturing so it could be a lot worse.

Going to move this thread to politics since this is more political than just general discussion.

I'm not allowed to post in the political thread. You may as well lock this...



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Acevil on 05 August 2016
barneystinson69 said:
Leadified said:

Ontario has been making a string of bad decisions since the 90s, it's just something we're good at. To be fair, things aren't that bad outside of manufacturing so it could be a lot worse.

Going to move this thread to politics since this is more political than just general discussion.

I'm not allowed to post in the political thread. You may as well lock this...

I think I know the reason why that rule as was made, this sort of is bit different, I don't think the mods should close this. Also one more thing I will say, Oil prices might rebound actually almost scarily (If it happens it will happen really fast), no one can truthfully predict it, but if it does. I fear for our dollar (It should never be too high and that close to the USD).