By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Politics Discussion - The Canadian economy is doing terrible...

 

How are these numbers?

Beyond awful! I thought C... 8 33.33%
 
Awful, but no surprise at... 12 50.00%
 
Better than I expected! 4 16.67%
 
Total:24
barneystinson69 said:
Acevil said:

He doesn't understand the lagging effect of economic downtown and how economic reform happens. He most likely thinks it is the current government's felt for not having Alberta more diversified and nothing to do with Harper putting all the eggs in one oil basket. 

What you aren't realizing is that oil isn't the only thing leaving in droves. Manufacturing is also falling, which produces roughly 10% of our GDP. You can't also explain how the loss of 71,000 jobs (the majority outside Alberta) with just the fall in oil. That excuse only gets you so far.

Do you know what lagging indicators are in economic sense? 



 

Around the Network
barneystinson69 said:
Soundwave said:

The price of oil is still horrific in 2016, so how does that magically make things better if it was bad in 2015 too? 

Other sectors being affected in an economy that's being rocked with its main economic engine being down isn't terribly surprising. Alberta is the economic engine of Canada and it is getting killed by these oil prices.

Even so, the economy wasn't performing this bad throughout 2015. Q1 and Q2 was bad, but the second half actually improved. This year has been awful throughout. 

Because the economy is not a video game, certain things take longer to impact an economy for example, the bulk of manufacturing being down is in Alberta and BC which is expected because everything is down in Western Canada. People are spending less in those provinces too which is expected but it's not good for the economy. 

The days in Alberta of people blowing big money on luxury SUVs on a whim and all that have definitely ground to a halt and other industries in those areas are shutting down too. 

The low price of oil will dog Canada through 2017 at minimum and there is no government policy that will change that ... that's the reality of it. Canada's economy centers mainly around natural resource exports chiefly oil, you cripple that industry and the economy is simply not going to grow at the same rate, no way. It would be like being stunned that Saudi Arabia's economy is performing lower. Russia has been walloped hard by low oil prices too, worse than Canada actually. Is Putin too Trudeau like? Nope, lol. Oil is a big deal. 

The economy is not down because of transgender washrooms or whatever group you want to scapegoat it on. 



Acevil said:
barneystinson69 said:

What you aren't realizing is that oil isn't the only thing leaving in droves. Manufacturing is also falling, which produces roughly 10% of our GDP. You can't also explain how the loss of 71,000 jobs (the majority outside Alberta) with just the fall in oil. That excuse only gets you so far.

Do you know what lagging indicators are in economic sense? 

Yes, I do. We've been trending steadily down, but are you to tell me that loses in other sectors in OTHER provinces is also to blame for the drop in oil? Is Edmonton the new capital of this country, because you're certainly making is sound like that. Oil only produces 2% of our GDP, meaning that much of the fall should've been felt last year. Even if Alberta is doing bad, the rest of the country should be more than able to push the country up. Our dollar as been devalued significantly in order to get manufacturing, but it hasn't worked. Consumer spending is also falling because everything is becoming so expensive, not because of the price of oil (except for in Alberta). And we're losing investment because the provincial governments in Alberta and Ontario are doing a terrible job at retaining investment. Look, I understand how bad the effect is (I am from Calgary after all), but we only make up 2% of this country's GDP. There should be another piece that picks us up. We're also facing a huge deficit, yet that has seemed to have done nothing to push us up a little.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

barneystinson69 said:
Acevil said:

Do you know what lagging indicators are in economic sense? 

Yes, I do. We've been trending steadily down, but are you to tell me that loses in other sectors in OTHER provinces is also to blame for the drop in oil? Is Edmonton the new capital of this country, because you're certainly making is sound like that. Oil only produces 2% of our GDP, meaning that much of the fall should've been felt last year. Even if Alberta is doing bad, the rest of the country should be more than able to push the country up. Our dollar as been devalued significantly in order to get manufacturing, but it hasn't worked. Consumer spending is also falling because everything is becoming so expensive, not because of the price of oil (except for in Alberta). And we're losing investment because the provincial governments in Alberta and Ontario are doing a terrible job at retaining investment. Look, I understand how bad the effect is (I am from Calgary after all), but we only make up 2% of this country's GDP. There should be another piece that picks us up. We're also facing a huge deficit, yet that has seemed to have done nothing to push us up a little.

First explain to me what lagging indicators are and how it reflects the current government. I want to deal this step by step. Don't jump two arguments ahead, I want to go step by step. 



 

barneystinson69 said:
Soundwave said:
Expected, the price of oil is way down, Canada relies heavily on the price of oil as their big export and money maker, it's why half of Canada went to work in Alberta the last decade.

The Canadian dollar moves almost 1:1 with the price of oil.

Most of the effect should've came throughout 2015, not 2016. And BTW, we're also facing a shrinking in our manufacturing too. In fact, that a look at this: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/08/02/real-estate-gdp-canada_n_11309192.html

Some sectors can suffer a delayed affect due to contracts running out that were in place through 2015 or beyond.  The new normal of lower oil prices has a knock on effect to all aspects of the economy.  Be interested to see how exports adjust and tourism growth given valuation of Canadian dollar in coming years.



Around the Network
spurgeonryan said:
If they get low enough will they go to war with America?

Nation wide suicide pact?



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

barneystinson69 said:
Acevil said:

Do you know what lagging indicators are in economic sense? 

Yes, I do. We've been trending steadily down, but are you to tell me that loses in other sectors in OTHER provinces is also to blame for the drop in oil? Is Edmonton the new capital of this country, because you're certainly making is sound like that. Oil only produces 2% of our GDP, meaning that much of the fall should've been felt last year. Even if Alberta is doing bad, the rest of the country should be more than able to push the country up. Our dollar as been devalued significantly in order to get manufacturing, but it hasn't worked. Consumer spending is also falling because everything is becoming so expensive, not because of the price of oil (except for in Alberta). And we're losing investment because the provincial governments in Alberta and Ontario are doing a terrible job at retaining investment. Look, I understand how bad the effect is (I am from Calgary after all), but we only make up 2% of this country's GDP. There should be another piece that picks us up. We're also facing a huge deficit, yet that has seemed to have done nothing to push us up a little.

Not sure where you're getting 2% from, Alberta is the 2nd highest GDP producer of all of Canada, and if the oil industry goes down it impacts the rest of Western Canada in all sectors. These aren't industries that sit in seperate vaccums. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Canadian_provinces_and_territories_by_gross_domestic_product

Canada's dollar is not something a government can control exactly, it goes up and down largely with the price of oil. Low oil price, low dollar, low dollar means expensive to import certain food items and other items (like you may have noticed video games are $69.99+ in Canada). 



Soundwave said:
barneystinson69 said:

Even so, the economy wasn't performing this bad throughout 2015. Q1 and Q2 was bad, but the second half actually improved. This year has been awful throughout. 

Because the economy is not a video game, certain things take longer to impact an economy for example, the bulk of manufacturing being down is in Alberta and BC which is expected because everything is down in Western Canada. People are spending less in those provinces too which is expected but it's not good for the economy. 

The days in Alberta of people blowing big money on luxury SUVs on a whim and all that have definitely ground to a halt and other industries in those areas are shutting down too. 

The low price of oil will dog Canada through 2017 at minimum and there is no government policy that will change that ... that's the reality of it. Canada's economy centers mainly around natural resource exports chiefly oil, you cripple that industry and the economy is simply not going to grow at the same rate, no way. It would be like being stunned that Saudi Arabia's economy is performing lower. Russia has been walloped hard by low oil prices too, worse than Canada actually. Is Putin too Trudeau like? Nope, lol. Oil is a big deal. 

The economy is not down because of transgender washrooms or whatever group you want to scapegoat it on. 

So the fall in Ontario's economy must be because prices are low in Alberta? That makes sense. And consumer spending must be spending must be lower in all of Canada because of Alberta. Yup, I totally get it. Now yes, my jab at Trudeau may have been a bit unfair, but then what exactly is he doing? He put us 30 billion in a hole, so what is he doing with the money? Consumer spending is falling in Canada because of the low Canadian dollar, which leads to higher prices. The dollar was devalued to help manufacturing, but they're leaving in droves because of just how high expenses are in Ontario. What are we going to do? Yes, I will remove that Trudeau jab in my post, but he is responsible for this country. People would've betrated Harper if the economy was doing this bad (as would I), and he would've deserved it. 



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

Acevil said:
barneystinson69 said:

Yes, I do. We've been trending steadily down, but are you to tell me that loses in other sectors in OTHER provinces is also to blame for the drop in oil? Is Edmonton the new capital of this country, because you're certainly making is sound like that. Oil only produces 2% of our GDP, meaning that much of the fall should've been felt last year. Even if Alberta is doing bad, the rest of the country should be more than able to push the country up. Our dollar as been devalued significantly in order to get manufacturing, but it hasn't worked. Consumer spending is also falling because everything is becoming so expensive, not because of the price of oil (except for in Alberta). And we're losing investment because the provincial governments in Alberta and Ontario are doing a terrible job at retaining investment. Look, I understand how bad the effect is (I am from Calgary after all), but we only make up 2% of this country's GDP. There should be another piece that picks us up. We're also facing a huge deficit, yet that has seemed to have done nothing to push us up a little.

First explain to me what lagging indicators are and how it reflects the current government. I want to deal this step by step. Don't jump two arguments ahead, I want to go step by step. 

Alright, you got me there. I'm not an economist, so my knowledge only goes so far. But since you brought it up, how about you start with the first shot.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).

barneystinson69 said:
Acevil said:

First explain to me what lagging indicators are and how it reflects the current government. I want to deal this step by step. Don't jump two arguments ahead, I want to go step by step. 

Alright, you got me there. I'm not an economist, so my knowledge only goes so far. But since you brought it up, how about you start with the first shot.

Lagging indicator of downturn or an upturn in economic sense is unemployment (one of the indicators, but that was the one of the key thing you first brought up). Usually decisions made in 2014, will reflect late early 2014 to all of 2015. Decisions made in early 2015 will reflect late 2015 and 2016 and so on. So the downturn in Canadian economics right now is based on various factors, but most importantly in purely you must blame a government (which is totally unfair, because it really is downturn of Oil that is effecting everything, but I want to again take this step by step, and not jump into two or three economic theories ahead), it would be the people in charge of 2015 policy decisions (again they cannot control the market or demand of a product, but they could have diversified when things were good). 

Added a bit more: So the Decline of West overall (Leading Factor) leads to unemployment (Lagging Factor)

By the way, in purely economic standpoint I am conservative by the way (that doesn't mean Conservertaive or Liberal party or NDP party, all three fail at conservative side of economics). The closest party that fill my conservative side, would have been the now dead Progressive Conservative Party or Liberal Party of the 90s.