PDF said: @everyone - You must read all my post and not jump in at one certain time. I have already stated why Wiisports, Wiiplay, and Wiifit sold. You look at the word gimmick as bad. That is your choice. Gimmick - an ingenious or novel device, scheme, or stratagem, esp. one designed to attract attention or increase appeal. That is exactly what the wii motion sensing device is. So is blu-ray with the PS3. You can tell me that 3rd party games will come in strong but you have not more proof than a prediction. I am sure Nintendo has somthing planned for the future but I bet it is in the form a new motion sensing device. Even if there is another Mario game, by the end of 09 it really wont matter for console sales. People that care about nintendo franchises will have already bought the wii by end of 09. I am not predictinng doomsday for the wii. end of 08 -40M (great year, top games coming out, Wii appeal) end of 09 -55m (Good year, good games, some wii appeal) end of 10 -63m (ok year, ok/good games, not much wii appeal) end of 11 -66m (maby new console launching)

Your talk about Wii Sports does nothing to dispute my claim. It is a system selling new IP. That point is indisputable. Without Wii Sports the Wii would not have sold nearly as well as it has. Your ranting about the "gimmick" that is used to sell the game is irrelevant. My point was to disprove your claim of Nintendo not making a new system selling IP recently which is clearly false. Your usage of gimmick also does not fit the definition you provided. The motion sensing is not something like Blu-ray. It is an entirely new control scheme designed to be less threatening and more appealing to non-gamers. While it was designed to attract attention that is not the only function it serves. It also increases immersion and makes previously PC only genres workable on a console. I would never dream of trying to play a RTS on a game pad, but I am curious to try it on a Wiimote+Nunchuck (though I suspect it will only work limitedly). The initial appeal is just a grab for attention but it offers a great deal of substance in-game. To a certain extent increased storage size does the same, but not on the same scale. A longer or prettier game is an improvement, but it is nothing compared to adding entire genres to your repetoire. I would dare say you should compare Wii FPSers to PCs rather than consoles solely because of the wiimote. I can concede that my prediction about third parties making games for the Wii is a prediciton, but it is not the same as most predicitions on this board. I am basing mine off of historical trends that have never been broken and are already showing signs of starting. Every console that has been in first place has attracted third party developers to it and gotten amazing games as a result. There is no reason to believe this trend is going to stop. Third parties have started to show the shift in development resources that will inevitably come at this rate. Capcom and Square-Enix both see the Wii as the future as they have expressed in press releases recently, and we know some big IPs are coming already. Monster Hunter 3 will be the big test to see if Monster Hunter can be successful on a console or if it is handheld only territory, and Capcom yanked it from the PS3 to the Wii. Resident Evil has been showing up in force on the Wii lately and that kind of noise usually leads to a new game. PES while note lighting up the sales charts (for obvious reasons) is getting a huge amount of praise critically and that means good things for the sequels. Sega had better have realized the Wii is their only hope for making any kind of money at this point or they will end up on the verge of bankrupcy again*. Hudson is firmly in Nintendo's corner and is offering up a new IP with serious potential in Joysound. I see no reason to expect the sales to go down arbitrarily either. The claim that most Nintendo fans will have the console is one that does not hold water. The Wii has outsold the GC in most of the major markets, and is fast approaching it in NA (the last of the major markets). Nintendo claims to have something very nice up their sleeves for core gamers just around the corner, and still have a couple of tried and true IPs to pull out before it is all said and done. Another Zelda game is supposedly coming, and there are certain to be another dozen or so Mario Parties to pop out. Animal Crossing will certainly move systems and god knows what the Mario Sports franchises will do. Factor in another few Wii blah titles that always seems to fly off the shelves and there is enough to maintain the momentum for a long time. If you can give me something more concrete than "I think..." I will be able to take your prediction seriously but until then it is just nonsense. The numbers seem mostly arbitrarily chosen rather than based on any kind of trends or known issues. There just is no proof of the Wii not getting any new games. There is a lot of signs saying third parties are starting to warm up to Nintendo again (I wonder how that will end...) and that means more big name IPs and system sellers as a result. The companies suffering the most financial difficulties right now are also the ones ignoring the Wii the most. That trend will not go unnoticed. *That comment is meant to apply only to Sega who has failed to make a profit on anything for the last decade save some of their recent Wii projects. While most companies can surely find a way to thrive on any system I firmly believe Sega's only hope lies in piggy backing on the Wii's massive success and hoping for the best.

3 million from 2010-2011 for the fastest selling console ever? That IS doomsday.



OH NOES THE WII ARMY IS COMING TO GET ME! QUICK, LET ME PLAY THE VICTIM CARD AS MY HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND VAGUELY SUPPORTED ARGUMENTS ARE THOROUGHLY DEBATED BY PEOPLE THAT DON'T THINK LIKE ME!

Sorry, it gets really old when people use that cop out every. single. day.

Your wall of text makes my eyes bleed red like the color of your reply. I am going to try and make it through it, but next time please keep my paragraph structure intact at the least.

The reason it is irrelevant is because the game is pushing consoles. If the game had been flail your arms to watch the guy flail his arms back everyone would hate it rather than love it. You seem to be under the false impression that motion controls is just some generic term that fully describes a style of play. Nothing could be further from the truth of course since the 5 seperate sub-games of Wii Sports play drastically different. The game isn't popular because it has motion controls. The game is popular because it is the best use of motion controls to date. I have watched people (and a lot of them) play Wii Sports and then decide they wanted a Wii. I have seen few that heard of motion controls and then wanted Wii Sports. I concede this might be a chicken or the egg debate though. Wii Fit is undeniably a system seller in Japan though and a new IP.

What I mean by my gimmick comment is you seem to think it will fade away. As if the appeal is limited because it is just a shiny new toy that will not stand the test of time. The definition provided fits the wiimote, but you use it differently. You use it more in-line with definition 5 (yes I use dictionary.com as well) rather than with what you provide. If this is not the case then you need to reword what you are writing as it is not conveying the right message. As I have learned, it is less about what you intend to say and more about what your audience hears.

The Wii has yet to see major third party success? That is a laughably absurd comment. Resident Evil 4 has tripled expectations. Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles has smashe them and is still rising. Guitar Hero 3 is a great success despite the fact that the game didn't even have stereo sound! Lego Star Wars: The Complete Saga has sold better on Wii than any other system. Rayman Raving Rabbids was a big enough success to warrant a sequel, and that game is about to pop over a million sales as well. Carnival Games is the game that won't stop selling despite everyone's hatred of it, and Mario and Sonic: At the Olympics speaks for itself. Sonic and the Secret Rings sold more than Sonic the Hedgehog sold on both other systems combined. The notion that third parties are having no success on the Wii is silly and dated. Capcom, SE, and Sega have all said they think the Wii is the future.

But again you go off making predictions based on how you feel. Why would the Wii be an anamoly? Why would third parties stop their long history of going with the most popular console? Why will the supply constrained Wii start seeing decline in the US rather than a rise? I am not trying to be high and mighty but show a critical flaw in your analysis. I can show you historical trends that support my predictions. I can show you press releases where the companies are vocalizing more support for the Wii. I can show you sales data where the Wii is outselling its competition combined.

The way it will get an audience out side of the "nintendo boys and casuals" is with new games. Fatal Frame will bring in a few people, and if Monster Hunter 3 is half as succesfull as it is on the PSP that will bring in a ton of hardcore. PES will bring in soccer fans, and the yearly madden releases will keep football fans happy.

If you want a year by year break down of the games that will push the consoles I can't give you that. I can show you how every major console attracts games to it though. I can show you how dominant consoles have a way of stealing game series away from the competition. That is what a good prediction involves. If you can show me why this won't happen with the Wii based on some form of evidence then I will amend my claims. Until then your "prediction" is just a guess based on gut feeling in my eyes.

Oh and appeal will fade away eventually. It has to for whatever reasons. That is why the PS2 isn't and won't be a serious threat to the Wii and why consoles are released together. The older system just isn't as hip and so it won't keep up. I want to say it typically takes 3 years for a systems appeal to top-out before the decline begins if it is the dominant console.

Oh and the way the Wii will attract the core gamer demographic is with good games targeted at them. FPSers feel really good on the Wii, and Nintendo has shown how you can effectively implement 4 different control schemes with no one batting an eye.

Regarding leo-j's signature: wii- 29-33 million
ps3-19-23mllion
Xbox 360-22-26million

The Wii only has to sell 10 million more to get to the 33 million by end of the year. I guess you are out by about 10 million. The Wii will get to a minimum of 42 million by end of the year.
The other two predictions for PS3 and XBox 360 seem about right.

Third parties is off-topic how exactly? We are talking about system sales here, and third party games can sell systems. It in entirly on topic, and most of the reason I mentioned it is because of stuff you said. Are you backing down from your claim that no third parties have had success on the Wii? Anyways the Final Fantasy series used to be exlusive to Nintendo and was stolen by the PS1. Resident Evil was announced to be GC exclusive and we saw how that went down. Megaman was exclusive to Nintendo, and Metal Gear started at Nintendo but both shifted to a new system when it was clear who would be dominant (amongst other issues). Castlevania, Monster Hunter, Culdcept, Devil May Cry, Viewtiful Joe, Disgaea, and many other series have all gone from exclusive to the other guy because the other guy has a huge instal base.

I must reiterate that your intentions are meaningless if your words don't convey them. You are implying the wiimote is simply a fad that will fade away and be forgotten because it has no lasting appeal. That is not in the definition you quoted.

As for the Wii being the exception and not the rule, well I see no proof of that. The rule of the most powerful console winning a generation is one you just made up as well. PS1 was weaker than the N64, 3DO, and a couple other long forgotten systems I think. The PS2 was the weakest of the generation. The PSP is stronger than the DS, and the Gameboy's throne is built by the corpses of its numerous technically superior adversaries. The NES was not the strongest either, though memory fails me as to what was. The SNES is arguably the strongest of its generation, but that is only because the one competitor stronger than it was never aiming at big time success.

I say that after three years it will peak and you say after two years. I am saying 09 will be Wii's biggest year and then slowly fade away. It certainly won't have the harsh drops you seem to predict but closer to a 5-10% drop a year for a while. I am basing this mostly off the PS2 sales of course, but it seems a good indicator over all.

And the reason the franchises will start popping up on the Wii is because publishers don't give two shits about artistic vision or pushing a system to its max. They care about money. Developer may or may not want super hi-def textures and amazingly advanced AI but a publisher literally could not care less. They just want their cut. You won't see dumbed down versions, but very heavily focused if not improved versions. PES, Resident Evil 4, Guitar Hero 3 (after they fixed that stupid mono problem) and those types of games will become the rule, not the exception. The Wii's fanbase is far too large for a publisher not to take seriously. There is gold in those hills, and a publisher will want all of it and will do it at the expense of anything. If a game can go from PS3 exclusive to Wii exclusive then simple processing power is not going to hold back any game that has yet to start development.

PDF said: ClaudeLv250 said: I am not predictinng doomsday for the wii. end of 08 -40M (great year, top games coming out, Wii appeal) end of 09 -55m (Good year, good games, some wii appeal) end of 10 -63m (ok year, ok/good games, not much wii appeal) end of 11 -66m (maby new console launching) 3 million from 2010-2011 for the fastest selling console ever? That IS doomsday.Yes, I stated why I think its only gonna sell 3 million for the year of 2011 because of a new console.  If not change that to another 6-8m and if want change the year of 2010 to 10M if it really bother you that much. Man I thought PS3 and 360 fans were defensive. I always thought most Nintendo fans were pretty much happy but if you doubt there console they will be on you like a pack of wolves. oh OH NOES THE WII ARMY IS COMING TO GET ME! QUICK, LET ME PLAY THE VICTIM CARD AS MY HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AND VAGUELY SUPPORTED ARGUMENTS ARE THOROUGHLY DEBATED BY PEOPLE THAT DON'T THINK LIKE ME!You came after me.  I was fine with us thinking differently.  You seem to be the one with the problem of me thinking differently than you.  I never attacked you, you attacked me.  I stated my opinion and we should be allowed to think differently.  I stated why I think what I think but that doesnt seem good enough for you.  You want be happy till I say Wii will sell 120m units atleast.  A vague arguement.  How vague is my arguement if I clearly state What I think.  The future Wii sales will not be as good as they are in 08.  Reasons - Appeal wont last(never last for any product) The games that will attract most people to the Wii are coming out in 08.  In 2009-2011 the price of the 360 and PS3 will look more attractive allowing budget families take more than just the Wii into consideration.  You have not thoroughly debated anything excpet the fact that Nintendo will come out with more games and new ip. Sorry, it gets really old when people use that cop out every. single. day.I wasnt copping out.  I was just stating that you guys are just are very defensive when anyone thinks badly about your console.  As you wont even let me have my own opinion.

I never "attacked" you. And you talk about Nintendo fans being defensive, you seem to think people questioning your posts is an 'attack' telling you that you're not allowed to think a certain way when that's far from the truth; just another excuse for the victim card. This is a sales site and people are going to debate, and a lot of that is based on facts and sales history. Basically what you 'feel' flies in the face of past trends and most predictions of Wii doom suggest an unprecedented swing and change that goes against the story the numbers tell. Couple this up with vague (YES, VAGUE) and poorly supported arguments revolving around how Nintendo and/or 3rd parties are going to just dry up in the next year for no other inexplicable reason beyond them not having anything else to put out after 20 years and you can see why people would disagree. And I think you're the one that's defensive. You should learn to take the brunt of the arguments when you present an unpopular position on a forum.

FishyJoe said:

 lol @ Fish Joe good illustration of leo-j's sales analysis. Flat line for Nintendo Wii

PDF said:  You attacked my prediction.   I am defending that means your attacking but if you dont like thos words we can call them the negative and affirmative.  I would be affirmative since I am backing up my prediction and you are negative since you are trying to break it down.  I dont have a problem with you debating my point but you implied that I can not tolerate people having different views than me.  When I never had this problem, you do.  You dont like my predicitons because I dissagree with your view.  I am simply trying to defend my point.  Do you not read any of my other post.?   I AM NOT ARGUEING THAT NINTENDO WONT HAVE ANY 3RD PARTY SUPPORT OR ANY NEW IP.  I am just saying that they wont be as big as SSBB or MK.  Do you know the meaning of Vague? Vague:not clearly or explicitly stated or expressed.  Look at my last post to you because I clearly did this.  Poorly supported in your opinion.  You have never prooved me wrong.   You can have your opinion but that all it is. I am defensive now but you guys were defensive as soon as I said somthing bad about the Wii.  I dont see you guys going after Avinash Tyagi for his outragous predictions.  You go after mine because you dont like it.

I don't argue with Avinash because he is at best a blind fanboy who has no interest in reality. If the Wii were losing you would be the first one to claime it was because they systems are in different markets because that what Nintendo would tell him. I have higher hopes for you though.