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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Miyamoto: Nintendo Waiting to Reveal NX Because of "Idea"

oniyide said:
curl-6 said:

This is Nintendo we're talking about, there's a pretty good chance it'll be bumped from next March to next holiday season. They have a pathological inability to deliver things on time.

it would be more respectable if they just said that. Cause its either that or this statement they are making is pure BS

Wouldn't be the first time.

"Zelda for Wii U is coming in 2015."

"Zelda for Wii U is coming in 2016."

"The Nintendo 64 is coming in 1995."



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DonFerrari said:
MrCkurab said:

For all those asking why they didnt show at E3, I've got another theory:
Its simply not ready yet.
Here is what I believe could have happened:

  • End of 2012: Wii U is released. Sales are mediocre at best, but no one is actually worried. They still have a whole year.
  • Beginning to mid 2013(?): First concepts for the next home console are made, but progress is slow. With the Wii U just out there is no need to hurry.
  • End of 2013: Xbox One and PS4 are released, the latter is a huge success quickly surpassing the Wii U and leaving its competition in the dust, despite possible problems in form of the blue light of death and the playroom scandal.
  • Mid 2014: Crisis at Big N: Despite several well received high profile games like Pikmin 3, Mario 3D World and Mario Kart 8, not to mention a price drop, new bundles, special offers, and a incredibly well received E3 showing the Wii U is hardly gaining any steam. The possible need to release the next console much earlier is considered for the first time.
  • End 2014: Crisis part 2: Despite more great games and other trys to winning over consumer, its become obvious that the Wii U has no chance against the competition. Project NX is accelerated and revised to make sure the mistakes of the Wii U will not be repeated, simultaniously other Buisness opporturnities are sought after to stabilize Nintendo (Mobile, Movies, Theme Parks, etc...)
  • Beginning of 2015: While announcing there partnership with DeNA Nintendo also announces work on NX, at that point probably just past final prototyping.

Let's crunch some Numbers:
In general a console needs at least 4-5 years from concept to product, often longer! Even in the best scenario NX has been in development for just a bit longer than 3 years, likely with several radical revisions and changes along the way. While the schedule was likely revised for the shorter timeframe as well, there are still the games. A good, solid AAA game takes at least 3 years. And we are talking about Nintendo AND new hardware here!
Yes, they probably took some Wii U games and started developing them for NX instead, but in the same time they still needed to make games for Wii U, 3DS and now mobile too, all the while keeping NX as secret as possible.
In case you havent noticed: Thats a ton of work to do in three short years!
Its very likely that there is still lots to do!

All this is even more interesting if you consider one of the Wii U's biggest failures: Its catastrophic first impression upon consumers.
"What is this? Another Wii Add ON? Some HD Handheld? A Nintendo tablet?"
Nintendo is aware of how badly they screwed up back then.

The obvious lesson is to make sure that this time, the first impression is a good one, like the PS4 did it back in 2013!

So the reason why we didnt see NX at E3 was likely that Nintendo still isnt confident that it will deliver a worthwhile first impression, and wasnt ready to risk a repitition of Wii U @ E3 2012.

Errrrr... no way in hell a console take 5 years to be developed and released.

They seem to take 5 years because after release of a console the P&D team start to look at what they want to be their next console. So I would cut it down to less than 2 years for the console developing (with 1 year already having prototypes and specs).

And games for new gen are developed at target specs and only after having dev kit it's optimized for it... so nope, that shouldn't impact that much the release of games for NX or even the console itself.

The only reason for several postpones on the console itself would be wanting technology not mature enough to be part of the console or not knowing exactly what you want to dev.

Ehhm, yes they do.
From the first concepts to final release the standard time is about 5 years, give or take a few.
Yes, if you want/need to be faster that is quite possible, and yes, the first years are very slow with a small team as the new console isnt priority yet. But under normal circumstances you can assume that the work on a new console begins about 6 month after the release of the last. Only notable difference in the last decades was on of the old Xbox-models if I recall correctly.
This process can be accelerated, eg. put more people to it early on, dont experiment that much and specify the prototypes faster, etc...
but the balancing of features, tech, price, specs, software, os, games, etc... still takes a whole lot of time.
At the same time the whole thing must be communicated with third parties, you need to prepare marketing, and you have to take care of your current buisness, as I said a f*ckton of work that needs to be coordinated between a myriad of people and companies and subsidiaries and much more.

There are hundreds of reasons why a console is or can be postponed, same with games, especially if they are developed for new hardware, trust me, I actually work in game development, I know this stuff! Its fun yes, but it sure as hell aint easy!



The new guy.

Sorry for possible mistakes, not a native speaker!

Yeah, I don't buy the whole next idea thing. Last gen was different as both Sony and MS were outdone by Nintendo. Sony lost a lot of money and MS was the underdog who beat the King.

This gen both MS and Sony have beaten Nintendo and have already shown their hand for their next console that will be on the market for at least another 3 years from launch and that hand is 4K and VR.

Neither Sony or MS will stop production and go back to the drawing board just because Nintendo has chosen to go in a different direction. Even if Nintendo release it next year, the "idea" can still be taken for their following console if the "idea" is successful.

If this so called idea is going back to cartridges, MS and Sony won't bother as both are invested in their consoles supporting DVD and BluRay.

If their next idea is streaming, both MS and Sony have their own versions of cross platform play.

I can't think of what this idea is outside of Nintendo doing a Sony and going with them retro feels and releasing a cartridge powered system where the games can be played on the console and on a handheld. A console that will also allow you to play the DeNa games and sync your purchases across devices.

If Nintendo could launch this holiday season they would have, but they couldn't. It's no longer about worries on whether the other two will copy their "idea," but I think it's about ensuring there is content on the system at launch other than Zelda and the system is ready for release. If they don't announce it officially this year, I see another delay where we get a reveal at E3 with an early autumn release.



MrCkurab said:
DonFerrari said:

Errrrr... no way in hell a console take 5 years to be developed and released.

They seem to take 5 years because after release of a console the P&D team start to look at what they want to be their next console. So I would cut it down to less than 2 years for the console developing (with 1 year already having prototypes and specs).

And games for new gen are developed at target specs and only after having dev kit it's optimized for it... so nope, that shouldn't impact that much the release of games for NX or even the console itself.

The only reason for several postpones on the console itself would be wanting technology not mature enough to be part of the console or not knowing exactly what you want to dev.

Ehhm, yes they do.
From the first concepts to final release the standard time is about 5 years, give or take a few.
Yes, if you want/need to be faster that is quite possible, and yes, the first years are very slow with a small team as the new console isnt priority yet. But under normal circumstances you can assume that the work on a new console begins about 6 month after the release of the last. Only notable difference in the last decades was on of the old Xbox-models if I recall correctly.
This process can be accelerated, eg. put more people to it early on, dont experiment that much and specify the prototypes faster, etc...
but the balancing of features, tech, price, specs, software, os, games, etc... still takes a whole lot of time.
At the same time the whole thing must be communicated with third parties, you need to prepare marketing, and you have to take care of your current buisness, as I said a f*ckton of work that needs to be coordinated between a myriad of people and companies and subsidiaries and much more.

There are hundreds of reasons why a console is or can be postponed, same with games, especially if they are developed for new hardware, trust me, I actually work in game development, I know this stuff! Its fun yes, but it sure as hell aint easy!

If in a 5 years you take 2 to 3 years at a very slow pace just throwing ideas and concept you can't really say the development takes 5 year... as I said, it start basically as soon as they release one console up to the release of the next one. Will you say then that Xbox One took 10 years to be developed? Nope... it took they 2-3 years and the others were just concepts and technology assessment.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

If in a 5 years you take 2 to 3 years at a very slow pace just throwing ideas and concept you can't really say the development takes 5 year... as I said, it start basically as soon as they release one console up to the release of the next one. Will you say then that Xbox One took 10 years to be developed? Nope... it took they 2-3 years and the others were just concepts and technology assessment.

concepting, technology assessment and working that into a prototype is what one usually refers to as "developing a console"

The 2-3 years you are talking about are the home-stretch, finalizing the tech, making sure everythings ready at launch, prepping pr, etc...
Its the last part of the development as a whole. Again, I know how easy it is to underestimate the time stuff like this takes, but seriously, this is, just like developing a game, a whole lot more work than one might believe and it often takes much longer than one would expect.



The new guy.

Sorry for possible mistakes, not a native speaker!

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MrCkurab said:
DonFerrari said:

If in a 5 years you take 2 to 3 years at a very slow pace just throwing ideas and concept you can't really say the development takes 5 year... as I said, it start basically as soon as they release one console up to the release of the next one. Will you say then that Xbox One took 10 years to be developed? Nope... it took they 2-3 years and the others were just concepts and technology assessment.

concepting, technology assessment and working that into a prototype is what one usually refers to as "developing a console"

The 2-3 years you are talking about are the home-stretch, finalizing the tech, making sure everythings ready at launch, prepping pr, etc...
Its the last part of the development as a whole. Again, I know how easy it is to underestimate the time stuff like this takes, but seriously, this is, just like developing a game, a whole lot more work than one might believe and it often takes much longer than one would expect.

Man, I also deal with high technology and I'm certain that if my company really had to take 5 years to just implement an evolution in a system they would be out of bussinees... of course the project as a whole could even take some decades but a P&D can't be full going 5 years per product and expect a good profitability.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."