If you look at sales from last year(January through December) for the Wii you will notice that its lowest sales for the entire year was the week ending April 1st at about 150K, which is the the equivelant to this week with 240K. Nintendo went on to sell an average of around 250K over the summer while PS3 and 360 were both flat/down over the summer. I think that Nintendo will be more aggresive this year with increasing production so who knows how high sales could be this summer. 

Nintendo also plans to launch the Wii in China and South Korea this year. Those two countries combined will likely increase sales by an additional 50-100k per week minimum. I think the reason Wii sales have been so low for the past 3 months is because Nintendo is stock piling for the launch.

If you look at the sales so far this year, it is similar to last year except week to week sales are less consistant. The trend so far has been downward since Nintendo knew they would meet their forecast this quarter and are saving them for a big start to the new Fiscal Year. 

Since PS3 and 360 sales will probably be flat or down over the next 6 month with the exceptions of big game releases I think 50% market share is definitely reachable but not likely. Nintento will certainly reach 50% market share by mid 2009 in my opinion. 

Last year Wii achieved slightly over 50% marketshare for the year, this year so far it's been at 46.7% so it doesn't seem at all like it is making progress toward the 50% target....

I would disagree about Xbox360 and PS3 sales being flat for the next 6 months, they have big titles coming in the next 2 months that should help sales nicely...( but even if they stayed flat I don't think it would change things much).

We'll see what happens in the coming month, it will be critical. Show us how much Ninty has stockpiled for '08-'09 fiscal, April releases, WiiFit + Mario Kart, and more.

Also shows how GTA will affect hardware sales of PS3/360.

It may not 50% this year - but it should be close. Every 1% now is getting harder and harder - esp. with the increased PS3 sales.

 yeah - Ninty has got to step up production to make 50%

I think that a Wii Fit and Mario Kart will push gangbuster Wii numbers in Europe, although they might not have that long term of an effect in America or Japan.

Actually, Wii Fit was already released in Japan and performed that goal perfectly. But that's the exception.

What are your figures for install bases at end of fiscal '08-09? The Wii will probably lose some share over Xmas, but make it back in the quarter directly after that.

If my end '08 predictions come true (Wii looking doubtful for just 9 months though?), then Wii will squeak in with a 50% ratio:

Wii - 45m
PS3 - 19m
360 - 25m

Wii does need to sell 20m in 9 months though, which is almost an average of 500k/week. Might need to sell 10m over Nov/Dec to hit this (average 1m/week over 10 weeks).

IF Nintendo can make them, people will buy them. It's all a matter of whether or not Nintendo can meet the demand.

45 %

"With the current sales it won't even reach 45% in the next year or so......"
Posted 5 days ago

"45 %"
Posted Today

Fail

who doesnt believe that wii will hit 50 % now that the wii beated the ps3 and xbox360 on the week of the gta 4 launch