If you look at sales from last year(January through December) for the Wii you will notice that its lowest sales for the entire year was the week ending April 1st at about 150K, which is the the equivelant to this week with 240K. Nintendo went on to sell an average of around 250K over the summer while PS3 and 360 were both flat/down over the summer. I think that Nintendo will be more aggresive this year with increasing production so who knows how high sales could be this summer.
Nintendo also plans to launch the Wii in China and South Korea this year. Those two countries combined will likely increase sales by an additional 50-100k per week minimum. I think the reason Wii sales have been so low for the past 3 months is because Nintendo is stock piling for the launch.
If you look at the sales so far this year, it is similar to last year except week to week sales are less consistant. The trend so far has been downward since Nintendo knew they would meet their forecast this quarter and are saving them for a big start to the new Fiscal Year.
Since PS3 and 360 sales will probably be flat or down over the next 6 month with the exceptions of big game releases I think 50% market share is definitely reachable but not likely. Nintento will certainly reach 50% market share by mid 2009 in my opinion.
^Guy pissing on Microsoft Sign
