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Forums - Movies & TV - ‘Warcraft’ Fever Hits China as Advance Sales Reach $20.4 Million

binary solo on 07 June 2016
Lawlight said:
binary solo said:

Good to have a more or less confirmed financial benchmark for profitability. If it manages a worldwide box office of >$300 million then we are looking at a break even movie. It's already made $70 million overseas and with China adding about $30 million it's 1/3 of the way there. If USA opening weekend is $25 million I don't expect it to get much more than $50 million as I expect fans to see it at the opening, but most of the general audience being swayed by the general scepticism towards video game movies along with the low review scores. So we have $150 million pretty much guaranteed, which means it needs solid openings in the remaining significant markets and reasonable legs to get to $300 million.

Personally I think the opening weekends will need to be pretty good because I don't see the movie having legs.

That's not how it works. $100M grossed in China equals about $25M grossed in the US. It will need closer to $450M to break even if China is a huge chunk of the grossings. Not counting marketing.

So in China only about 12% of the gross goes back to the producer? Man, that's harsh.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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Lawlight on 07 June 2016
binary solo said:
Lawlight said:

That's not how it works. $100M grossed in China equals about $25M grossed in the US. It will need closer to $450M to break even if China is a huge chunk of the grossings. Not counting marketing.

So in China only about 12% of the gross goes back to the producer? Man, that's harsh.

25%. Yeah, my maths is wrong. $100M in China equals $50M in the US.



binary solo on 07 June 2016
Lawlight said:
binary solo said:

So in China only about 12% of the gross goes back to the producer? Man, that's harsh.

25%. Yeah, my maths is wrong. $100M in China equals $50M in the US.

That makes a bit more sense. Though I guess for PR purposes $100 million in China is $100 million added to the worldwide gross which would help it to look impressive. If they need $400 million to break even I think that is going to be a tough ask. I don't know that it's possible with a US boxoffice of only about $50 million.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Slimebeast on 07 June 2016

Fantastic news! Do we dare to hope for $100 million in China and $350 million worldwide?

I loved the move. This will be seen as such a classic fantasy movie in the future. Truly loved it.

If we're optimistic and the movie finishes at $350 million at the boxoffice worldwide, a conservative estimate would give the studio 40% of that, which means $140 million, which is close to the totalt budget of the movie at $160 million.

But with DVD, Netflix and TV revenues (probably around half of the $140 million) it should make a nice profit!


EDIT: Damn it, I didn't take marketing budget into account when I saw the $160 million budget of the movie. Judging from sources on the internet marketing doesn't seem to be included in that number, sadly. So the total actual cost for the movie could be $160 million plus another $80 million for marketing = a whopping $240 million.

We really need amazing China boxoffice numbers to make this lovely movie succeed!



binary solo on 08 June 2016

Boxoffice Mojo is reporting China as having $46 million from Warcraft, so that's a really big opening week making the worldwide gross $121 million.

I think if it does get to $350 million gross then a sequel is reasonably possible.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

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greencactaur on 08 June 2016

Warcraft is huge in China!



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Nem on 08 June 2016

Good! Cause i really want to watch the sequal/s. The origin story is the most boring thing. It gets more interesting from here onwards.
Next movie will start with the warcraft 3 story.



Ultr on 09 June 2016
Nem said:
Good! Cause i really want to watch the sequal/s. The origin story is the most boring thing. It gets more interesting from here onwards.
Next movie will start with the warcraft 3 story.

Do you think so? I guess they will continue exactely where the first movie ended. The story of durotan's son story



I officialy know too much now.

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HeavenlyWarrior on 09 June 2016
Ultr said:
Nem said:
Good! Cause i really want to watch the sequal/s. The origin story is the most boring thing. It gets more interesting from here onwards.
Next movie will start with the warcraft 3 story.

Do you think so? I guess they will continue exactely where the first movie ended. The story of durotan's son story

They can't do it, they have to tell the story of the second war, and they need two movies to do that



HeavenlyWarrior on 09 June 2016

WARCRAFT earned est. ￥302M ($46M) on Thursday, China's 2-day total is now ￥603M ($91.9M).