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Forums - Gaming Discussion - PS4.XX. There will be NO PS5

Intrinsic said:
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PS4K will bring longer dev time, higher budgets, less innovation.

I dont know how you are arriving at this. Makes zero sense to me....... how can Neo do all that when the core system is still the PS4?

They games are sold to the same user base as before. Except now the games needs to work on 2 hardware specs with some significant differences. This costs more time in testing / QA / patching. Thus it takes longer than before to make a game and the budget goes up.

There is less incentive to squeeze the most out of the console versions. The main difference between PC and console development is that console games are made to utilize the hardware to its full potential. While a PC game is made with many configurations in mind, a console game can make very clear assumptions on how long certain things take and how to fill the gaps. With a PC game you often see you processor sit idle most of the time, not using all cores and threads are constantly waiting on each other. On console there are far fewer, "are you done yet" pauses, that's what developers mean when they say they use the hardware 100%. Not that games can't get better with different code and optimizations, but that all the gaps are filled. Which is alo why it is said that on consoles you can get about double the efficiency out of the hardware.

Now you have 2 hardware specs. The problem is that the more you optimize for ps4, ie fill the gaps, the more unexpected things can happen in NEO mode, the more you need to test the NEO version. With less optimization, less room for innovation. And since the NEO version can't innovate over the ps4 version there will be slower progress overall. That's the difference with PC games. The weaker system still dictates what can be done, while now being more difficult to optimize for since it all has to work better on the NEO version too. Ironically the 2 systems will hold eachother back in areas where it matters, ie gameplay.



And in the end you're actually getting less bang for your buck than before.
Normal cycle, release susidized console, ahead of the curve, sold at slight loss, loss is made back over the years.
Incremental consoles have a much shorter lifespan, thus are already behind the curve at release, must make profit a lot sooner.

no. and you really need to stop doing this. You make it sound like this means that when the Neo is released the PS4 and the 40M+ people that won it seizes to exist. There is nothing affecting the lifespan. If anything the lifespan becomes longer.

Ofcourse it doesn't seize to exist. However the profit is now shared over 2 machines, both with their own R&D and manufacturing costs. Unlike a slim that has a higher profit margin than an incremental model, which simply replaces the older model. Designing a new hardware configuration, new SDKs, new dev kits, it all costs money. All I'm saying is that it is a less efficient system overall with smaller profit margins, which leads to weaker hardware than what was possible at a new console launch.



PS4K is still stuck with the 8 core Jaguar processor, running only 30% faster. It already was a bottleneck. No memory increase, games aren't even allowed to have better gameplay, only improved graphics. What happens in 2019? Another model to code for? Is the base model dropped then? Will the base or the 4K still hold back gameplay improvements?

You really think that the problem with games today is that the CPU is the bottleneck? So how does that explain the PS4 running evey game at a higher rez and framerate thaan the XB1 yet it has the better CPU. And you think the available memory is not sufficient???? lol. ok.

Yes, read my previous paragraph about optimization. There actually are some XBox One games with fps advantage over ps4 and the CPU was pointed at in those cases. The available memory is sufficient now but look ahead, beyond the instant gratification. What happens with the next model, even if the base model is dropped for the NEO.2, it is still stuck supporting NEO with that 8 GB limit with OS taking a big share.

Let me tell you something about a game pipeline. 

CPU receives input > CPU simulates scene > GPU draws scene and sends it to ur TV > user presses button > CpU recieves input

At its heart, every single game engine follows the above principle. Now what do you think happens if you have a GPU that can do all the work in half the time? Think about that for a bit.

What happens when the GPU is twice as fast and the optimized CPU code only runs 30% faster? Remember no overhead / gaps in optimized console games. Well the GPU sits idle waiting for the CPU to chug through it's share, unless that previously optimized CPU code is now moved to GPGPU. Lot of work. Probably not gonna happen for the NEO until NEO.2 More likely is a simple resolution increase on NEO for the GPU to chew on.



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RolStoppable said:
Intrinsic said:

that... and I think you should read the article. :)

Except that what I posted is illogical.

What's more likely to happen with such three year updates is that the PS4 Neo launches, but publishers will hesitate to put much money towards it. At that point there is not much reason for consumers to upgrade, but there always people who'll buy the latest and greatest. Within two years and sales of the PS4 Neo picking up and outpacing monthly sales of the original PS4, publishers will be more willing to make use of the higher processing power, so standard PS4 versions will get worse over time as the active installed base is believed to shift in the PS4 Neo's favor. Sony themselves is also at a point where they will seriously encourage publishers to do that, because they want to phase out the original PS4 as the volume of sales for it has steadily decreased and consequently the cost benefits of massproduction won't be all that great anymore.

Then comes the end of year 3 for the Neo and year 6 for the original PS4; this is the point where Sony launches the third version of the PS4. At that point developers won't be thrilled to create a version for six year old hardware and Sony will give green light to scrap such a version if developers should choose to do so. After all, Sony is not selling the PS4 anymore after the last batch of shipments they have sent out. They want consumers to buy the more profitable versions of the PS4. This cycle repeats every 3 years, so every time a version of the PS4 has had its sixth birthday, it will be more or less be left out of the loop.

Let's compare:

Old console cycle - Buy a new console every 6 years.
New console cycle - Buy a new console every 3 years or skip an iteration and buy every 6 years.

Old - Get roughly 6 years of developers focusing on the console you bought.
New - Get roughly 3 years of focus and another 3 years of decline.

That's for consumers, but developers won't be happy that they basically have to work with a new hardware configuration for every game they make (assuming a three year development cycle which isn't farfetched in today's AAA industry).

So who is going to benefit from this? Sony, as long as they sell the hardware at a profit. Gamers who don't mind to buy new hardware every 3 years because they want the best console graphics.

I am all for it that Sony does hardware refreshes every 3 years.

I agree. I think this is what will happen. 

I think thats why they keep the awefull Jarguar core. I mean, its like a Galaxy S6 core... or an Atom core, but 8th of them and they increase them from 1.6 to 2.1 GHz. The cores will have 30% of more performance, and will keep the 2x graphic card feed, but still , 30% more of a very weak core is a weak core. Some things run single core and 2.1 GHz jaguar is not so good, Physics will not improve, they dont need to , because the game has to run on old PS4. 

Graphics will improve, at 2x the graphical performance it would be close to Geforce GTX 970, a card that can run at 4k medium quality settings or full hd ultra quality settings. 

What I really dont know if how the 2.1 Mhz Jaguar core will be able to sustain 60 fps. The graphic card can do it at 1080p, but I dont know how they are going to keep the minimum fps at 60 fps on games. 

So I guess that the new PS4 neo will behave as a PS4 with better aliasing, shadows and lighting. And handle higher resolutions. Nothing more and nothing less. 

After 3 years it will be replaced by a PS5 and then old PS4 is going to start to fade away. Mabye they keep PS4neo for 3 more years after is replaced by a PS5neo.  



SvennoJ said: snip

 

  1. Costs any more than it already does getting a game to work on tens of different specs on the PC? I dare say that even if the PS4 had four different specs optimizing for them is still far less of a headache than for a PC. But that aside, where are you getting this whole different hardware spec thing? Do you know what an API is? You really think that the work is going to be that much harder for devs such that it breaks the overall end user expericne cause they just won't be able to do it? It's sonys job to make sure that they tools available to the devs to work with are as similar as possible. the benefits of working withing a closed platform are still there. 
  2. This is exactly what I'm saying you need to stop. You are fighting a battle that doesn't even exist. There are two SKUs, there aren't so machines. And sure as hell no profit is being split anywhere. Profits are still profits. And has it crossed your mind that selling at $399 Sony may be making more on the Neo than selling the base PS4 at $299? Ps4.... Neo... when you pay $60 for a game, it's the same thing to Sony. You need to stop making it sound like we are talking about two different platforms. 
  3. Ok. let's pretend that this is the first time new more powerful hardware has been made while running on the same OS or its derivative from much older hardware. Oh wait.... that's been happening since Windows was invented. 
  4. No. let's see..... For a 30fps game. Every frame needs to be spit out every 33ms. That means that the CPU and GPU must all do its thing in 33ms. If the CPU takes up 18ms of that time, then the GPU has only 15ms to do its thing for the same to be ready. With a much more powerful GPU, you can allow the CPU take up as much as 23ms knowing fully well that the GPU can do its required work in the 10ms thas left. 
Look, this is just me loosly answering you. but that's cause I feel you are so outta touch on some of these concepts it makes it really hard for me to explain anything to you. Maybe someone else with more patience than I have will tho. 

 



tak13 said:
spemanig said:

Not even in your dreams.

That was somewhat agressive? :P Wait a second... I might have misunderstood (this happens when  you don't read the whole op) I was thinking that we were talking  about consoles becoming, how to say it, cloud services/digital platforms (Mainly, if I'm not mistaken,  due to trowing that this is your prediction?) I guess we weren't! So it's about small gen cycles/ releasing of upgraded/able hardware often?

This was actually a misquote lmao sorry.



RolStoppable said:

Afterwards I said that it is illogical. In your quote above, you are saying that each hardware refresh will be underutilized during its first three years, so the part "more technological progress" of my quote doesn't hold true. But like I said, it's illogical. If developers aren't supposed to make full use of the hardware refresh's specs until three years later, then wouldn't make it more sense for consumers and developers alike that a hardware refresh doesn't launch in the first place and instead a properly supported update of the hardware launches after six years? The way you describe it, it just creates an unnecessary step in the middle.

But how is that really different from what happens now? And if u read the article you would see that too. 

Now new hardware comes out, and there is a learning process. 3-4yrs into the hardwares life you satrt seeing things that truly take advantage of the hardware. That's basically what will be happening with these mid gen transitions too. just that the learning process years will be shorter cause they are all working with the same tools and/engines just over different specced hardware. 



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Intrinsic said:
small44 said:
This will completely kill consoles.

did you even read anything? 

How will it kill consoles? 

As long as you can buy into a console gaming ecosystem for as little as $299.... it's not going anywhere. 

Because it'll just be a PC except slightly cheaper with poorer running games. You lose all of the benefits of owning a console over a PC.



Interesting concept. That certainly seems to be what's happening on the Xbox/DrirectX side. As it's all DirectX last's gens games are available, as it sounds like the new Xboxes will still play current gen games. (Which I think includes these 360 games I think.)

So why not just make it PlaySation and then different levels of finesse. Might work too.

The thing is, part of the reason people go to consoles is price. So it will always be behind what the best PC's can do. But it's usually good enough to for most people with the price and convenience.

In other new, I don't think this PS4 Neo is going to be the revolution everything is expecting. Thing of a big market - close to 160 million PS3/Xbox 360 consoles out there. Only 40 million PS4/XboxOnes - but this group buys more games (or will at least pay more) right now.

But even if the PS4 Neo sells super well, it will still be only a tiny say 4-6 million market by next year (remember it has to compete with the current consoles too) so I don't see developers putting that much effort into make the games that much better. (Except first party)

So I don't see the PS4 Neo as that much of a big deal. Will mostly just effect a few exclusives.



 

Really not sure I see any point of Consol over PC's since Kinect, Wii and other alternative ways to play have been abandoned. 

Top 50 'most fun' game list coming soon!

 

Tell me a funny joke!

Intrinsic said:
RolStoppable said:

Let's compare:

Old console cycle - Buy a new console every 6 years.
New console cycle - Buy a new console every 3 years or skip an iteration and buy every 6 years.

Old - Get roughly 6 years of developers focusing on the console you bought.
New - Get roughly 3 years of focus and another 3 years of decline.

That's for consumers, but developers won't be happy that they basically have to work with a new hardware configuration for every game they make (assuming a three year development cycle which isn't farfetched in today's AAA industry).

So who is going to benefit from this? Sony, as long as they sell the hardware at a profit. Gamers who don't mind to buy new hardware every 3 years because they want the best console graphics.

I am all for it that Sony does hardware refreshes every 3 years.

Here is how I see it. 

When sony made the PS4. they expected it to be supported primarily for 6yrs. 

The Neo is more future proofing than anything else (for now). But it's also a ay if killing two birds with one stone. They would have done a hardware revision anyway (the slim) but why not do that and future proof in the process. 

the last 3yrs of the PS4 primary console life, the Neo just runs all games marginally better than the stock PS4. And those people that buy it are going to be OK with this. During this period the PS4 gets phased out and the Neo bcomes the primary console. So about 18 months before neo2 is released, you won't even see the PS4 available for sale anymore. 

When neo2 is launched, the cycle changes. Now neo is the primary console. Neo 2 gets games running slightly better since it's hardware is under utilized. and the PS4 is now only aable to run games released at that time at 900p/720p with dialed back effects...etc. But remember, at this point the PS4 is a 6+ year old console. 

By the time the neo3 is released, neo2 becomes the primary and so on. But at this point, due to whatever APIs Sony implents, the PS4 will still be able.o run Neo3 games. 

So under this model if someone buys a PS4 in 2018, 5 years after the original PS4 came out, they should only expect the latest games to support that hardware model for the next year before they can pretty much give up on any major release coming to their console ever again. Meanwhile if someone bought a PS3 in 2011 (5 years after the original PS3) came out, they knew that since the PS4 wasn't announced they would be playing the latest games before Sony even announces a successor, and probably another 2 years after the launch of the PS4.

So, while the PS3 had a proper 10 year lifecycle, and the PS4 has a hard, firm 6 year lifecycle, and you don't see this as a problem to consumers. All of the people that wait for a console to drop under $250 (that is, the majority of console gamers) to buy one will never ever buy a PS4 because the margins on a PS4 will never be so low to be able to reach that price milestone before becoming literally redundant for new games. So, under your model, Sony loses the most profitable years of a console's life and the majority of its customers by keeping margins low and costs high for the duration of a consoles life.

Great job.



potato_hamster said:

So under this model if someone buys a PS4 in 2018, 5 years after the original PS4 came out, they should only expect the latest games to support that hardware model for the next year before they can pretty much give up on any major release coming to their console ever again. Meanwhile if someone bought a PS3 in 2011 (5 years after the original PS3) came out, they knew that since the PS4 wasn't announced they would be playing the latest games before Sony even announces a successor, and probably another 2 years after the launch of the PS4.

So, while the PS3 had a proper 10 year lifecycle, and the PS4 has a hard, firm 6 year lifecycle, and you don't see this as a problem to consumers. All of the people that wait for a console to drop under $250 (that is, the majority of console gamers) to buy one will never ever buy a PS4 because the margins on a PS4 will never be so low to be able to reach that price milestone before becoming literally redundant for new games. So, under your model, Sony loses the most profitable years of a console's life and the majority of its customers by keeping margins low and costs high for the duration of a consoles life.

Great job.

What???????

No. 

With this model, even the PS4 can potentially be supported for 15years. Acrross 5 revisions. 

Year 1-3= PS4(100% support)

yr 4-6= PS4(100%) + Neo (75%)

yr 7-9= PS4(75%) + Neo (100%)

yr 10-12 = PS4(50%) + Neo (100%) + Neo2 (75%)

yr 13-15 = PS4 (25%) + Neo (75%) + Neo2 (100%)

yr 16-18= PS4 (0%) + Neo (50%) + neo 2 (100%) + neo 3 (75%).................etc

support means that whatever games are released can still be played on the SKU. The percentage denotes how much priority is given to the SKU. 

If you read the above scenario well, you will notice that every SKU still gets 6 years of primary support at 100%. meaning that for those years it would be treated as the lead PlayStation hardware by Sony. Difference with this system, is that overall each SKU ends up with around 15yrs of active support. so no. what you are saying doesn't apply at all. 

With this system, you can pretty much wait for the 7th year, buy a PS4 if you can still find one, at least you should be able to getbome used for as little as $100/$150 and at that time you will know you still get support for it for at least another 6-8yrs. But you will also know you are buying into older gen tech and performance. At that time if you want the bleeding edge then you can cough out $300 for the Neo which at the time would have been out for 3yrs. 

Whatever you choose to get, you get support for your console for way more than 10yrs that the previous generational system permitted. 



We can only pray that that is true. Unless Sony starts porting their games on PC. Then screw consoles.



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