Thats a bold prediction considering X1 sold over 8 million last year. X1 could surpass Genesis in 2 years.

You genuinely believe X1 wont have exclusives which is highly unlikely. And after 2 years, X1 might be under $299.

And already got a YOY Drop,  in the first month of the year, on the country that cont for more than 60% of the sales, and will have to face 2 other competitor that is Playstation VR, and Nintendo NX, to eat the Cake of the Holidais, plus Microsoft, is sending exclusives that were moving Hardware, to PC, so this  also have impact on Xbox One's sales.

I Still think that they had 16-17 Millions units sold on the end of Year, EA'S Predictions is really strange, they said that Xbox One, shipped more than 9 Millions on the last 2 Quarters of the year (wtf).

So because of all those factors, Xbox One, might be down YOY, this year, And because Xbox, is not popular worldwide, just something to change the Spotlight on USA, already doom the console for the Whole generation.

Bold but not that bold, N64 sold 15 million 1.5 years and 23 million in 2.5 years yet sold less than 33 million in 5 years. It had a very strong start but quickly faded after its big hitters released and PS1 kept gaining momentum. XB1 could very well face a similar fate.

I'm not sure there will be another traditional Xbox. I think a Windows 10 steambox equivalent is an option. Allowing them to transition to full PC mode and finally give Steam a run for it's money in the process.

Nintendo 64, also got Out-sold by Sega's Saturn on Japan Isn't ?, even selling multiple times the total numbers of Sega's Saturn, it got out-sold on Nintendo's Homeland.

A few things...

N64 had weak 3rd party support. That seperates X1 and N64 in a huge way. That's not gonna change because major 3rd party games do well on Xbox and they will do better as X1's userbase grows.

Significant 1st party support ended in 2000 as Nintendo put its focus on the sixth gen. Hence, N64 had a short life.

Frankly, X1 will receive great support from both MS and 3rd parties longer than N64 did. They will not have a similar fate. X1 has many things going in its favor that N64 lacked.

More importantly, the X1 was up YOY. VR isn't a proven success at its price yet and NX another uncertain thing. The exclsives MS has announced for PC are exclusives to WIndows Store and won't have a significant if any impact on X1. I know this because many best selling X1 and PS4 games are on PC.

I'm gonna be conservative and say X1 might do 8 million again this year. Especially if they are competitive with price and its exclusives are good.

Already Doom the console? No, Doom is out later this year.

But hey, we can end this conversation. I get it, you think everything is going wrong for Xbox and its on a downward spiral. Understood...

3rd party support does not guarantee strong legs, as the PS4:XB1 ratio increases so does the ratio between multiplat titles making it easier for Sony to secure exclusive content & timed exclusives, we are already seeing this happen and its going to continue.

N64 & XB1 share a very similar audience, shooter/sports/racing/action are/were very strong on both devices. Also we have no idea if Microsoft is going to supply XB1 with strong 1st/2nd party support after 2017, they will have released pretty much all of their big hitters by the end of this year, 2017 and beyond will likely just be sequels and unproven franchises.

You say XB1 has many things going for it but you really don't list any substantial reasons why its going to have longer legs than N64.  Don't get me wrong, in not saying XB1 will have short legs, just that we shouldn't rule out the possibility.

VR, is something that will eat sales of someone that have a PS4, and was thinking of geting a second Machine, it can be sucessful like Wii, but no one knows, NX, of course will be a Strong competitor, of course more than Wii U, Nintendo, will not do the same mistakes twice.

And About Nintendo 64, Nintendo 64, had Tons of Third Party Support, Had Tony Hawk Pro Skater, the best of genre, and maybe one of the best games of all times, had Resident Evil, one of the biggest revelations of the Generation, and had a good ammount of Exclusives, on 2000, still release Perfect Dark, Majora's Mask, and Kirby 64.

The Playstation 1, Had Exclusives, because of that the Console sold so well, Sony, was not binding the Developers for the PS1, just like Nintendo, did with Sega, they only wanted to make the game Exclusive for Playstation, but Nintendo 64, had a lot of games.

What games did Nintendo 64, did not got ?, Final Fantasy 7 ?, Xbox One, also is not geting this tittle, Dragon Quest ?, Xbox One, also is not geting those tittles, Ace Combat ?, Xbox One, also will not get those tittle, You say that Exclusives does not move Sales, but now they move ?, and Nintendo 64, had over 80 Game launchs on the year of 2000, so the game indeed had Third Party Support.

The Wii U, have over 688 Titles, most Re-releases of games from previous consoles.

Xbox One, have 499 games acording to Wikipedia, and 355 is Multiplataform, 71/31 Timed, or Console Exclusive, Microsoft Exclusive 7, Exclusive 37.

Playstation 4, have 956 Games acording to Wikipedia, and 527 is Multiplataform, 200 Console Exclusive, 32 Timed, 98 Sony Exclusive, 99 Exclusive.

So Exclusives is what sell consoles, People know that Multiplataform, will still be Multiplataform, because of That, Exclusives are what Matters.

And how do you know that Xbox One, will have much more Support Than Nintendo 64 ?, Nintendo, had 4 Years of Supports with Big Releases, here we are at Xbox One's Second year, Microsoft, is sending everything from their studios for PC, and  even if all were exclusives, would still have less exclusives than Playstation, and Microsoft, abandoned the Xbox 360, late on the Life-cicle, only releasing Halo, and Forza, now they can Release Halo, Forza, and Gears, but seems that they will support the PC, over the Console.

3rd party support is crucial part of strong legs. Notable exclusives on top of having the big 3rd party games found on the competitor is important. I think you're ignoring X1's exclusives and timed exclusives. I assume X1 will get more as well. Some people just assume the market leader gets all the support.

Hypothetically, if 1st party support on X1 ends on 2017 the console will continue to get notable 3rd party games longer than N64 because X1 can easily share games with PS4 and X1 does a great job moving 3rd party games.

I've give you substantial reasons. Most importantly, X1 gets better 3rd party support.