Prediction: Microsoft will launch the Xbox Two in 2017 or 2018

[zorg1000]

Mr Puggsly said:

zorg1000 said:

Bold but not that bold, N64 sold 15 million 1.5 years and 23 million in 2.5 years yet sold less than 33 million in 5 years. It had a very strong start but quickly faded after its big hitters released and PS1 kept gaining momentum. XB1 could very well face a similar fate.

A few things...

N64 had weak 3rd party support. That seperates X1 and N64 in a huge way. That's not gonna change because major 3rd party games do well on Xbox and they will do better as X1's userbase grows.

Significant 1st party support ended in 2000 as Nintendo put its focus on the sixth gen. Hence, N64 had a short life.

Frankly, X1 will receive great support from both MS and 3rd parties longer than N64 did. They will not have a similar fate. X1 has many things going in its favor that N64 lacked.

3rd party support does not guarantee strong legs, as the PS4:XB1 ratio increases so does the ratio between multiplat titles making it easier for Sony to secure exclusive content & timed exclusives, we are already seeing this happen and its going to continue.

N64 & XB1 share a very similar audience, shooter/sports/racing/action are/were very strong on both devices. Also we have no idea if Microsoft is going to supply XB1 with strong 1st/2nd party support after 2017, they will have released pretty much all of their big hitters by the end of this year, 2017 and beyond will likely just be sequels and unproven franchises.

You say XB1 has many things going for it but you really don't list any substantial reasons why its going to have longer legs than N64.  Don't get me wrong, in not saying XB1 will have short legs, just that we shouldn't rule out the possibility.