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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2016 NPD Thread! PS4 #1

OneKartVita on 13 February 2016
OttoniBastos said:
OneKartVita said:

Have you a source that backs that up?  NeoGAF traffic down 50% YOY I mean 

Someone on reddit compared the january 2015 vs january 2016 post number using web.archive.org.

The result was something like ~28k posts per day in jan 2015 vs ~15k in jan 2016.(yes i rounded up the 50% :P)

I can't find the original post of this but you can check web.archives.org

http://web.archive.org/web/20160101044123/http://www.neogaf.com/forum/

Oh you mean just for the NPD thread.  Well the current one will get more posts still but even with a decline that thread is a drop in the pond compared to gaf as a whole.  The guy who owns it still makes like 20k a month and he only puts minimum non intrusive adverts on the site.  He could sell it for 5-10 million aswell so trust me he won't lose any sleep. 



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Aura7541 on 13 February 2016
Aquamarine said:

NeoGAF mods knew they really fucked up by banning my friend George, and now they're flatout lying to save face.

Admin Nirolak:

"George was a many-times permanently banned member who you guys didn't seem too sad about losing the last few times their alts were discovered."

This right here is a flatout lie. An absolute, complete lie that doesn't make any sense. I know I certainly did not make "many alts." I gave up NeoGAF after trying to get unbanned for months with radio silence from the mod team even though my ban was self-requested.

NeoGAF members are getting restless that their only source of data was banned for a bullshit reason. There are even calls to unban him, which I find really sweet. And now, just as I expected, the mods are trying to spin a new story to get them to calm down instead of doing the right thing and admitting their mistake and unbanning him.

These blatant lies are unconscionable and should not be tolerated.

It's quite unfathomable that the mods really think GAFers are that dumb to believe that. The alts in which Nirolak mentioned had common characteristics of rudeness and being over their heads when it came to understanding the video game market. George did not exhibit these types of behavior, which contradicts Nirolak's comment. In fact, this post of his was absolutely fantastic.



Boskabo on 13 February 2016

People trying to get George to post here seem misguided. This is a site that incorporates NPD numbers directly into its own pretend numbers, and we've seen numerous outlets take these numbers as belonging to a proper research group. VGC is making money and notoriety (which leads to traffic) through these numbers, which is strongly against NPD policy and quite probably illegal. The NPD can't be seen to indulge such a site.

As such, a twitter account seem like a decent option. NPD could also give informal PR bits to outlets long after the initial data is released. The problem is that as the reach of those message increases so does the need to clear the data released with proper channels. The rumour was that hardware data ceased being released at Sony's request, so it'd be odd Muclair's data releases wouldn't be discouraged or outright forbidden by privies, either in the present or future.



Farsala on 13 February 2016
Boskabo said:
People trying to get George to post here seem misguided. This is a site that incorporates NPD numbers directly into its own pretend numbers, and we've seen numerous outlets take these numbers as belonging to a proper research group. VGC is making money and notoriety (which leads to traffic) through these numbers, which is strongly against NPD policy and quite probably illegal. The NPD can't be seen to indulge such a site.

As such, a twitter account seem like a decent option. NPD could also give informal PR bits to outlets long after the initial data is released. The problem is that as the reach of those message increases so does the need to clear the data released with proper channels. The rumour was that hardware data ceased being released at Sony's request, so it'd be odd Muclair's data releases wouldn't be discouraged or outright forbidden by privies, either in the present or future.

1:The US numbers would get to VGchartz anyways.

2: ioi probably has NPD himself

3: NPD only does US, Canada, and Australia publically it seems, and 20 countrys in total to people who get NPD. While VGC is worldwide, pretty much every country.

The only thing NPD wouldn't want to do it is to simply save face. So while your reasons make sense, I don't think they are as sound.



Boskabo on 13 February 2016
Farsala said:

1:The US numbers would get to VGchartz anyways.

2: ioi probably has NPD himself

3: NPD only does US, Canada, and Australia publically it seems, and 20 countrys in total to people who get NPD. While VGC is worldwide, pretty much every country.

The only thing NPD wouldn't want to do it is to simply save face. So while your reasons make sense, I don't think they are as sound.

1. Doesn't matter, it still can't be encouraged by the NPD for third parties to resell their private data. If NPD was seen as engaging the VGC community in a positive way future lawsuits could be affected. Inability to retain this data as private dooms the coperation, when the numbers are fair game their analysis and predictions are easily challanged by other firms.

2. Probably not. As far as I know, practically only NPD leaked numbers and conslusions based thereon (ranking implications) are altered post-NPD, not more general information. Beside, the agreement NPD subscribers have to sign would explicitely forbid the operation of VGC in a non-compete clause and a clause forbidding the general disclosure of numbers. Breaking this would have extremely serious legal repurcussions. We've seen how fast newegg folded despite their great legal reputation/standing.

3. NPD subscriptions is available on a per-country basis.

In general I don't think the points in your post attempt to reflect the way a cooperation would be expected to operate.



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Boskabo on 13 February 2016

 

PIE time!



Boskabo on 13 February 2016
cs said:

ML ~ 71

FF ~ 53

RE ~ 38 (4 ~ 73%)

LIS ~ 27 (4 ~ 74.8%)

 

Mario&Luigi, Final Fantasy Explorers, Resident Evil, Life is strange for anyone wondering.

Note that despite the delicious key lime pie we don't have a hardware number to anchor ourselves to.

 

(Sorry for the triple post but sudden info drop!)



Normchacho on 13 February 2016

So, looks like the PS4 was up by a good bit over last year and the Xbox One and Wii U were down by quite a bit. According to GAF at least.



Bet with Adamblaziken:

I bet that on launch the Nintendo Switch will have no built in in-game voice chat. He bets that it will. The winner gets six months of avatar control over the other user.

thismeintiel on 13 February 2016
hunter_alien said:
thismeintiel said:

Sad.  All we had is Sony saying PS4 YOY growth was impressive, which leads me to believe it's at 215K or more.  And for MS to bust out the hours of gameplay WW for a statement about US sales, leads me to believe sales are down quite a bit YOY.  Possibly 115K or less.  We already know Nintendo consoles are down, so probably means 65K for 3DS and 40K for Wii U.  It also means New 3DS was a failure at stopping the decline of 3DS sales.  Doesn't bold well with Nintendo banking on combining their HH and home markets when both are doing poorly.

Its a bit early to call the 3DS and Nintendo's handheld segment a de facto failure with no future prospect, when the system is 5 years old, underpowered and managed to sell 60 million units already. That said they need something and fast if they want to remain profitable and a seriosu player in the console race, this year. 2017 is way to late IMO.

 

OT: The PS4 is dominating. No real surprise here. Microsoft officially lost their last stronghold on a global scale IMO. With U4, PSVR and a dozen mid-tier exclusives this year, there is simply not much they can do to get back to #1 in the US IMO.

3DS will be their lowest selling HH ever.  That's not to say it's a failure, just that the HH market is on the decline and there's little Nintendo can do to stop it.  I mean, last gen we had 2 HHs that did really well.  The DS, with 154M, and the PSP, with 82M.  This gen, we have the Vita, which might make it to 20M, and the 3DS, which might make it to 75M.  The casuals have just moved on to phone and tablet gaming.  That's why I just don't see a console that appeals to the HH market of old will make a dent in the industry.  Especially when it'll be going against a PS4, a system it most likely won't be on par with powerwise, that is probably in its peak year(s), and will be $299 later this year.



 

Boskabo on 13 February 2016

Does anyone remember where the statement of hardware being essentially flat came from? With the old 2015 data we could solve with the percentages given. Given that cream didn't post more, we can probably conclude data was complete, so in turn 'hardware being flat' should refer to Wii U + XB1 + PS4. That statement could also contain the percetage increase/decrease. 

Never mind, the statement is "consoles declined by 8 percent".


Last year:
PS4 ~189k
XBO ~150k
3DS ~74k
Wii U ~62k

So assuming 3DS had a baseline decline of 8% like the total market, the rest is 401k. After 8% decline, 368.92k.

Then:

PS4: 211k (401*.92*.5718)

XB1: 121k

Wii U: 36.9 k

However, the 3DS is likely to be down more than 8%. Without that number we can't compute the exact numbers. They should all only be off by a few k, however.

 

The most interesting results are true regardless of the 3DS decline:

The PS4 practically outsold the XB1 2:1.

The Wii U declined by about 50% YoY.