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Forums - Sales Discussion - January 2016 NPD Thread! PS4 #1

TheBlackNaruto on 11 February 2016
JRPGfan said:
TheBlackNaruto said:
So pretty much everything is over tracked. Still wow YOY growth for the PS4 is a great way to start what SHOULD be it's peak year imo.

Could be 2017... depends on when they cut prices & slim model release, if both happend in 2016, that might be the peak, else I think 2017 will be bigger.

Really? I could see that but with the games coming out this year starting with SFV then UC4, R&C, Horizon etc. I can see them doing another $50 price cut aroundAug/Sep. I think this year will be huge. I just can't see 2017 being bigger than this year. THey will be close if you ask me but I think 2016 will edge it out.



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binary solo on 11 February 2016
poklane said:
Teeqoz said:

Lego series has usually sold better on xbox I think, but iirc, Marvel Avengers had Playstation marketing. Might be a smart move by Sony to get more of the younger market, so perhaps they'll continue these marketing deals for Lego games.

Not only do they have marketing, they also have exclusive content. The upcoming Star Wars lego game will also have exclusive content for PlayStation platforms.

And of course we have a month where PS4 saw "impressive YoY growth" and Xb one looks to have had a YoY decline. So there's a large enough gap for this month alone to incluence the sales of games nt he bottom half of the top 10.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

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Roronaa_chan on 11 February 2016
Boutros said:
binary solo said:

Aye? The Jan 2015 NPD thread says 192K. Sure it's only 3K but where's 189K from?

Apparently it's a more accurate estimate that someone on GAF got from a PM that wasn't shared at the time.

I don't think it's a matter of being more accurate. Didn't I once read that not all distributed numbers are exactly the same, so as to make it easier to track leaks? A few ks difference between different sources would be normal then



binary solo on 11 February 2016
DonFerrari said:
Seems like VGC really made crazy prediction for the month. And we say it's reliable because LTD is close. To think that on the crazy months of the holidays they got it right.

For PS4 VGC has been constantly undertracking. Perhaps ioi has adjusted up his sales coefficient for PS4 in his prediction model but has no overshot a bit. Dunno why all the others would be overtracked though.



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

Teeqoz on 11 February 2016
jason1637 said:
ratchet426 said:

The NPD numbers only count sales of standalone physical copies of games, NOT copies that are part of a console bundle or downloaded. 

So it actually makes sense that there would be a higher number of phyiscal  copies sold on the platform that DIDN'T have a console bundle for that game.

How does that sense? In most cases the physical copies of a game would sell better on the platform with a higher userbase. 

The difference in userbase between the two is pretty small. At the same time, if someone were to buy a console now to play Black Ops 3, if they bought a PS4 they would just pick up the bundle, and so that Black Ops 3 purchase wouldn't be counted for NPD, while if they bought an XBO they would have to purchase the game separately and thus it would be counted for NPD. Same goes for Fallout 4 and the XBO.



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jason1637 on 11 February 2016
Teeqoz said:
jason1637 said:

How does that sense? In most cases the physical copies of a game would sell better on the platform with a higher userbase. 

The difference in userbase between the two is pretty small. At the same time, if someone were to buy a console now to play Black Ops 3, if they bought a PS4 they would just pick up the bundle, and so that Black Ops 3 purchase wouldn't be counted for NPD, while if they bought an XBO they would have to purchase the game separately and thus it would be counted for NPD. Same goes for Fallout 4 and the XBO.

I understand that they would need to buy an extra copy of the game but I can see why CoD sold more without digital and bundles becauset CoD still has a massive following on Xbox.

Also Rainbow Six would have to be an exception to the situation. 



tbone51 on 11 February 2016

Mario and luigi at 10 for single sku!



Teeqoz on 11 February 2016
jason1637 said:
Teeqoz said:

The difference in userbase between the two is pretty small. At the same time, if someone were to buy a console now to play Black Ops 3, if they bought a PS4 they would just pick up the bundle, and so that Black Ops 3 purchase wouldn't be counted for NPD, while if they bought an XBO they would have to purchase the game separately and thus it would be counted for NPD. Same goes for Fallout 4 and the XBO.

I understand that they would need to buy an extra copy of the game but I can see why CoD sold more without digital and bundles becauset CoD still has a massive following on Xbox.

Also Rainbow Six would have to be an exception to the situation. 

Obviously it won't always be like that, it depends on other specifics too. Like you said, Cod has had Xbox marketing for like a decade, and that still shows its mark. As for Rainbow Six, wasn't that bundle exclusive to only one retailer? That could explain why the impact was more limited than the widely available bundles like Cod and (I think) Fallout 4.



poklane on 11 February 2016

“After a record-breaking holiday, 2016 is off to a great start with continued growth in Xbox Live on the strength of the unmatched lineup of games available on Xbox One. In January, the total number of hours spent gaming in one month on Xbox One worldwide surpassed 1 billion hours. Looking ahead to this spring, fans can enjoy more great games with the upcoming releases of ‘Quantum Break,’ ‘Rocket League’ and ‘Tom Clancy’s The Division.’ We can’t thank our fans enough for their continued support and passion for Xbox, and we’re looking forward to bringing more of the games and experiences our fans want most in 2016.” – Mike Nichols, Corporate Vice President, Xbox Marketing, Microsoft

Bolded part =



Teeqoz on 11 February 2016
poklane said:
“After a record-breaking holiday, 2016 is off to a great start with continued growth in Xbox Live on the strength of the unmatched lineup of games available on Xbox One. In January, the total number of hours spent gaming in one month on Xbox One worldwide surpassed 1 billion hours. Looking ahead to this spring, fans can enjoy more great games with the upcoming releases of ‘Quantum Break,’ ‘Rocket League’ and ‘Tom Clancy’s The Division.’ We can’t thank our fans enough for their continued support and passion for Xbox, and we’re looking forward to bringing more of the games and experiences our fans want most in 2016.” – Mike Nichols, Corporate Vice President, Xbox Marketing, Microsoft

Damn, ZhugeEX is savage.