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Forums - Nintendo - Opinion: As earlier NX releases, as bigger are the chances it wont be what your waiting for.

dharh on 12 January 2016

Nov-Dec 2016 release for Console-NX is early based on average lifetime of Nintendo consoles.  That would be panic mode dreamcast type scenario stuff.  Going on average of Wii era realease it would be  around August 2017.  Going on trends of longer console release dates NX (Wii3) would release November 2018 (72 months) or later.  I'll predict probably somewhere in 2017 if Nintendo wants a solid release, earlier depending on panic anxiety and/or strategy.

Based on rumor the Handheld-NX is releasing first.  That might be part of the strategy.  My calculation's don't predict handheld release windows.  It could be based on a unified platform that the NX is rumored to be, that they do the handheld first, build up the software, and then later release a console closer in line with my predictions.  Either way, it is absolutely going to be an uphill battle. 

Nintendo does not fall in line with the other two major console producers and thus has their own schedule. Absolutely miss or hit on whether it does Nintendo any good to do so.

For me, regardless, Nintendo 1st party doesn't make games I play and hardly ever attracts 3rd party games I do play so I am only interested in their release dates and have no real opinion on whether those releases will be a success or not, except when they deviate from their normal release schedules.



A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of their first breath to the moment of their last.
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Miyamotoo on 12 January 2016
DolPhanTendo said:
Great points from the original poster and this why Nintendo s President said we are taking our time with it meaning hint hint shut up about NX for this year much isn't going to be said until E3 then just like the WiiU another year and half until release or a year if it's handheld
WiiU after the holidays have plenty user base in the US and Japan to hold steady just because EU isn't supporting doesn't mean it's not going to do well
I agree releasing NX home console this year would be Saturn to Dreamcast

Or Xbox to Xbox 360. People forgetting that original Xbox had also 4 year life span and Xbox 360 was very successful despite that.





OdinHades on 12 January 2016

Welp, Nintendo needs to do something to please investors. They don't care if they still make money. They wanna see growth. It's actually more important than money. A growing company that doesn't make any money whatsoever? Totally fine! Just look how investors supported Amazon and Facebook for years!

That being said, I don't think Nintendo seriously expects to outsell the PS4 or anything. They'll bei fine if they can double Wii U sales or something. The console doesn't need to be über successful, there are a lot of grey areas between total failure and best selling console of all time.

I also don't see the point in hanging a pretty much dead platform on life support. Just let it go and bring on the next system rather sooner than later.



唯一無二のRolStoppableに認められた、VGCの任天堂ファミリーの正式メンバーです。光栄に思います。

Thunderbird77 on 12 January 2016
Soundwave said:
Miyamotoo said:

Nintendo itself said they can effectively support two totally different platforms any more. Thats why they merged they handheld and home consoles divisions and teams, thats why NX is probably integrated platform, they will develop one game in same time for handheld and home console. That doesnt mean evry Nintendo single game will be shared for handheld and home console, but probably majority of them. We alredy saw few similars project like that even this gen, like Smash Bros. or Mario vs. Donkey Kong Tipping Stars.

 

I guess the other question is why would want to not share games? 

A game like Splatoon could have double or triple the sales if it had been available to 3DS owners. Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze would have done much better too.

It's not just about sharing small games for the sake of sharing a few games, there are business considerations here too ... keeping your best games away from the majority of your consumer base is simply a terrible business strategy. 

Seeing as how a Nintendo console has never outsold a corresponding Nintendo handheld (not even the Wii could do it) ... I wouldn't count on the next Nintendo console being able to outsell the portable counterpart.

Unified library is simply a net win for Nintendo in just about every way. 

The platform gets more consistent support, Nintendo has a much larger audience for all their games and the main audience isn't cut off from their bigger games, and Nintendo's dev teams are free to work on more original or fringe projects rather than being tied down to having to make basically the same franchise over and over again (because the portable needs one, then the console needs one, and once you're finished, the hardware generation is coming to an end). IE: Instead of the Mario Kart team having to do Mario Kart 7 and then go straight into Mario Kart 8, they could just make one Mario Kart game and maybe do something else like a Wave Race game or an original IP. This would be great. 

Also I think most people simply do not want to pay $500+ to play Nintendo franchises. The proposition that Nintendo is asking for right now which is this -- you pay us $500 (Wii U + 3DS) to play basically the same franchises, give or take a few different ones ... is one that overwhelmingly is being rejected by the market. Even by Nintendo fans, many of them do not buy both. People don't want to buy two different hardware pieces to get Nintendo franchises (even when a GCN + GBA was a net $200, most people opted just for the GBA), nowadays Nintendo will be lucky to get them to even buy one

Stop alienating/dividing your own fanbase this way, let them play all your games regardless of which NX model they use. iPhone and iPad have all the same apps no matter which one you buy (99% of the same ones anyway) ... this is how NX should work and then the consumer has the choice of which ever model suits their lifestyle -- this is a much more progressive model and would make the NX a much more innovative platform made for 2016, not stuck to the 1980s model.

Because yet again it's not possible or intelligent. Wii U games would already need time for downgrading and optimization in order to fit a handheld slightly above ps360 power. Now imagine games pushing graphics on the far more powerfull wii u successor. It's feasible for smaller 3d games and all 2d titles, while games like splatoon, MK, smash and animal crossing have enough mainstream multiplayer/social appeal to be worth the effort. the 2d and smaller 3d games also benefit more than big titles from a larger userbase, because those aren't big sellers.

Meanwhile, large projects like open world 3d zelda, 3d metroid, big 3d mario would take a lot of effort, more people on team and might take even longer to have two versions running. But it would still be smarter to get those as exclusives, to increase the value of the system.

A few examples: 3d mario like 64 or galaxy goes exclusive to home console. 3d mario like 3d land/world goes exclusive to handheld. 2d mario is shared.

huge 3d zelda exclusive to home console. 3d zelda in similar scope to the ones before zelda u exclusive to handheld. 2d zeldas are shared.

3d metroid exclusive to home console. 2d metroid shared. pokemon main games exclusive to handheld, stadium/coliseum/battle revolution to home console. Some smaller 3d titles and 2d games selected for being exclusives from one system or the other, if needed to increase the number of exclusives.

On other posts you talk about needing $500 to play all nintendo software is too much but you're also the one saying gamers can buy more expensive things because they're grown up now. You also ignore that most people don't buy things at launch. One year ofr two after release, the HH + HC could cost $399 or less.





bdbdbd on 12 January 2016
Thunderbird77 said:You need far better understanding of hardware. Unless the home console's power is completely wasted, the games made for it will need downgrades and optimization to fit the handheld. it's not as expensive as making two games but it costs considerably more than making a single game. Then there are  huge games (like a 3d mario/zelda/metroid) that would cost much more to downgrade and would be stupid to do so anyway, since all platforms need their exclusives.

 

NX is supposed to be a platform, not a console. NX exclusives would be exclusive to NX, whether there will be one or ten NX devices.

You don't get it do you? Nintendo needs games for all its hardware. If it is cheaper than two distinct games, that's the way they're going.

 There are two things: scalability and optimisation. Why would you think Nintendo needs to optimise it's hardware when nobody else isn't. If you have multiplat games PC/X1/PS4, the games aren't optimised a bit. If they have shared everything in game development and hardware side, the middleware should be able to handle the scaling.

Thunderbird77 said:

Because yet again it's not possible or intelligent. Wii U games would already need time for downgrading and optimization in order to fit a handheld slightly above ps360 power. Now imagine games pushing graphics on the far more powerfull wii u successor. It's feasible for smaller 3d games and all 2d titles, while games like splatoon, MK, smash and animal crossing have enough mainstream multiplayer/social appeal to be worth the effort. the 2d and smaller 3d games also benefit more than big titles from a larger userbase, because those aren't big sellers.

Meanwhile, large projects like open world 3d zelda, 3d metroid, big 3d mario would take a lot of effort, more people on team and might take even longer to have two versions running. But it would still be smarter to get those as exclusives, to increase the value of the system.

A few examples: 3d mario like 64 or galaxy goes exclusive to home console. 3d mario like 3d land/world goes exclusive to handheld. 2d mario is shared.

huge 3d zelda exclusive to home console. 3d zelda in similar scope to the ones before zelda u exclusive to handheld. 2d zeldas are shared.

3d metroid exclusive to home console. 2d metroid shared. pokemon main games exclusive to handheld, stadium/coliseum/battle revolution to home console. Some smaller 3d titles and 2d games selected for being exclusives from one system or the other, if needed to increase the number of exclusives.

On other posts you talk about needing $500 to play all nintendo software is too much but you're also the one saying gamers can buy more expensive things because they're grown up now. You also ignore that most people don't buy things at launch. One year ofr two after release, the HH + HC could cost $399 or less.

But the scaling would still be a better option, as the game would be available on all NX devices. The same game would run on lower settings on weaker hardware.

 

Thunderbird77 said:

Multiple times I said it's not feasible or intelligent to share all games for HH and HC. Some games are good for that, others are not. Nintendo's software output will already be better than the 8th either way, thanks to the same architeture on future systems and HD development experience they aquired. Done here, bye.

 

Why not? If it should the customer to decide which device would fit them better.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

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Soundwave on 12 January 2016

The more research I do the more I'm convinced Nintendo could have a very high end portable that could handle even PS4 ports at 960x540 or even 1280x720 in some cases without it costing a huge amount. It would be more like a return to the N64-GameCube era of powerful but affordable. 

The Apple A9X chip is about 600 GFLOPS and it's *not* an expensive chip, the 16-core (higher end) PowerVR 7900 versions of it (which is 800 GFLOPS) is being designed for budget/low cost Android set-top boxes.

Likewise the Tegra X1 which is Nvidia's kinda opponent to the A9X/PVR7900 is 500 GFLOP and has been in a $199.99 console for like a year already, and that device is sold at a fat mark up too.

If Nintendo could combine their 3DS userbase size with a modern chip like the Power VR 7900 or Apple A9X type processor (which I'm projecting costs about $50-$60 at cost), a lot of developer support would follow because developers could port their PS4/XB1 engines over.

That's probably still their best bet. The portable is should sell at least OK (50m-60m) even with erosion from mobile and this would differniate their portable from mobile much moreso too by being able to run real console games on the go. The console would then be more like just a bonus.



Thunderbird77 on 12 January 2016
bdbdbd said:
Thunderbird77 said:You need far better understanding of hardware. Unless the home console's power is completely wasted, the games made for it will need downgrades and optimization to fit the handheld. it's not as expensive as making two games but it costs considerably more than making a single game. Then there are  huge games (like a 3d mario/zelda/metroid) that would cost much more to downgrade and would be stupid to do so anyway, since all platforms need their exclusives.

 

NX is supposed to be a platform, not a console. NX exclusives would be exclusive to NX, whether there will be one or ten NX devices.

You don't get it do you? Nintendo needs games for all its hardware. If it is cheaper than two distinct games, that's the way they're going.

 There are two things: scalability and optimisation. Why would you think Nintendo needs to optimise it's hardware when nobody else isn't. If you have multiplat games PC/X1/PS4, the games aren't optimised a bit. If they have shared everything in game development and hardware side, the middleware should be able to handle the scaling.

But the scaling would still be a better option, as the game would be available on all NX devices. The same game would run on lower settings on weaker hardware.

 

Thunderbird77 said:

Multiple times I said it's not feasible or intelligent to share all games for HH and HC. Some games are good for that, others are not. Nintendo's software output will already be better than the 8th either way, thanks to the same architeture on future systems and HD development experience they aquired. Done here, bye.

 

Why not? If it should the customer to decide which device would fit them better.

A platform = a console = single hardware. Nintendo specifically said the NX is a gaming hardware. Sure, the codename could refer to the projects of both the next handheld and home console, wich will still be two products. By optimizing, it's obvious I mean each game would have to be adjusted for the two hardwares. There's no such thing as making a game and magically run it on different systems with a huge power gap, unless it's pushed back by the handheld power.I already explained too much about why the sharing idea doesn't work for every game and wouldn't be smart even if it did, I won't repeat myself.





bdbdbd on 12 January 2016
Thunderbird77 said:
bdbdbd said:

 

Why not? If it should the customer to decide which device would fit them better.

A platform = a console = single hardware. Nintendo specifically said the NX is a gaming hardware. Sure, the codename could refer to the projects of both the next handheld and home console, wich will still be two products. By optimizing, it's obvious I mean each game would have to be adjusted for the two hardwares. There's no such thing as making a game and magically run it on different systems with a huge power gap, unless it's pushed back by the handheld power.I already explained too much about why the sharing idea doesn't work for every game and wouldn't be smart even if it did, I won't repeat myself.

Nintendo said it's DEDICATED gaming hardware, and described it as platform that will have multiple form factors.

How huge the power gap would be? Bigger than PC/X1? Why does PC games manage to have high settings and low setting. Hardware shares the same architechture, but the hardware specs differ. If we have 7 NX devices with different HW specs, why couldn't the games just have different settings for different graphical fidelity?





Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

Thunderbird77 on 12 January 2016
bdbdbd said:
Thunderbird77 said:

A platform = a console = single hardware. Nintendo specifically said the NX is a gaming hardware. Sure, the codename could refer to the projects of both the next handheld and home console, wich will still be two products. By optimizing, it's obvious I mean each game would have to be adjusted for the two hardwares. There's no such thing as making a game and magically run it on different systems with a huge power gap, unless it's pushed back by the handheld power.I already explained too much about why the sharing idea doesn't work for every game and wouldn't be smart even if it did, I won't repeat myself.

Nintendo said it's DEDICATED gaming hardware, and described it as platform that will have multiple form factors.

How huge the power gap would be? Bigger than PC/X1? Why does PC games manage to have high settings and low setting. Hardware shares the same architechture, but the hardware specs differ. If we have 7 NX devices with different HW specs, why couldn't the games just have different settings for different graphical fidelity?

NO, nintendo never ever described NX as a platform with multiple form factors. This is factual, just read the official words.

Yes, the power gap will be bigger than x1 and pc, probably a 15x difference. PC games running on different spec ranges certainly gives devs problems to achieve and sometimes the end result isn't amazing. However, there are still minimun requirements for PC games to run, and I don't think there's a 15x+ difference between minimum requirements and what it takes to run the game at max settings.



Kennel83 on 12 January 2016
Soundwave said:
Kennel83 said:
Soundwave said:

 

3 TFLOPS is as powerful as a PS4 + XBox One combined. It would have the best 3rd party ports for two years at least, enough time for Nintendo build a comfortable userbase in their ecosystem. 

Once you have those people in, you simply offer an easy upgrade path for people who really want 4K graphics (a lot of people won't even have a 4K TV) later on. 

Like I said NX should not be a single console or any single device. It's a platform. Like STEAM. Your library simply just goes with you when ever you choose to get a better hardware setup (same thing happens with iPhone or Android). 

 

The only problem I see about this is, would it be cheap? I honestly have no idea. If it's cheap then I don't see why they wouldn't do it. But I'm expecting xbox one levels of power. Hope it's more powerful though.

It could be affordable. 

"Cheap" is a different thing, and I think people need to differniate here between "cheap" (as in largely junky, crap hardware) and "affordable" (as in what the SNES, GameCube, N64, etc. were, powerful yet affordable). 

I think people need to understand too that just like with soft drinks, chocolate bars, and virtually every other consumer product known to man, inflation happens. 

The Super Nintendo was $199.99 at launch, that's equivalent to $350 today, so really the PS4 is basically what the SNES used to be. 

Also I say let the portable NX be the affordable/budget option. The console should be aimed at a different. Why have two hardware devices aimed at the same exact audience? NX should be a platform and then they should able to make different hardware models aimed at different audiences. 

 

Well, I have no problem with NX console being 350€, I just meant cheap because it seems to me that Nintendo is likely going for a budget price this time. If it was as powerful or more than a ps4 I will buy it for that price.

And yeah, now that you say it, snes was very expensive back in the day, mostly its games, which were like 70€ 20 years ago, crazy! I'm really happy with Nintendo prices these days haha.