A new main entry in Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, and Persona are a pretty sure bet. PS4 will very easily outdo 2015's sales in 2016.

Just want to say thanks for providing these charts.

I think one graph that would be interesting is aligned launch cumulative sales of 7th and 8th gen consoles to see how the PS4 is performing in comparison to the PS3 and the Wii U at the same point in time. I don't know if it would be easy to do based on the data you have but don't trouble yourself if it's too complicated.

Final fantasy is uncertain, persona is rather niche and dragon quest is 2017 and multiplatform. final fantasy may be multiplatform too and there's the added factor of competition.

You are in luck, Carl, I know the perfect place to express your appreciation.

Final Fantasy is a guaranteed million seller, Persona 5 should finish near 400k (which is quite notable), and Dragon Quest XI isn't confirmed to be 2016, but it won't be far off and DQ: Builders and DQ Heroes 2 are coming for certain in 2016. DQ Heroes sold over 800k on PS3/PS4. These are big titles that will push a lot of hardware. Whether they're multiplatform or not doesn't really matter, especially in the case of PS4/X1. The only ones you can really argue is something like DQ Heroes or Builders where the PS4 version won't be primary (Same with XI, but even then, PS4 version is certain million seller).

Not to mention the several titles that will do well throughout year (Star Ocean, Yakuza, Street Fighter V, Attack on Titan, Dark Souls 3, and One Piece Burning Blood will all do 100k+ easily). The games I just mentioned are just in the first 4 months too. 

Final Fantasy has a good shot at 1 million if it's actually good and exclusive, but it could end multiplatform with NX if it is a home console. Same for dragon quest XI (wich even has a 3ds version). Dragon quest builders doesn't seem like it wil sell much and 800k across two platforms isn't much for DQH. It certainly has a number of releases that will push hardware in different levels but the possibility of a new platform, better and getting the same multis + nintendo exclusives can't be ignored and would affect ps4 sales greatly.

I think you underestimate the impact of an 800k selling title. For reference, there are only two million sellers in Japan for PS3 (Final Fantasy XIII and Resident Evil 5, even though RE6 was very close). The PS3 got large boosts from a bunch of games of the caliber I mentioned. 

DQH only opened to 265k on PS4, and it still doubled HW for the week (in which is cleared top selling platform by 10k, so it was a slower part of the year). A consistent flow of appealing games will do more to help the PS4 than a few very big games.

Now, for the point of the potential NX coming and stealing all of the PS4's market? We'll have to wait and see, but it would be very much not Nintendo to go after the same red ocean as Sony (not to mention that it's very difficult to argue about stealing marketshare away when the market has been dwindled down so much by mobile gaming).

I'm sorry but selling over 8m in a country where home console market is supposedly dead is exceptional.  If it stays on market as long as ps3 it will do even more.  

The Wii and ps3 did just over 10m so getting 80%+ of their sales is very good. 

I simply don't see ps4 having an easy time outselling it's 2015 numbers. Going for the same market as sony and more is what nintendo always did, I don't get what you meant.