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Thunderbird77 said:
outlawauron said:
Thunderbird77 said:

Final fantasy is uncertain, persona is rather niche and dragon quest is 2017 and multiplatform. final fantasy may be multiplatform too and there's the added factor of competition

Final Fantasy is a guaranteed million seller, Persona 5 should finish near 400k (which is quite notable), and Dragon Quest XI isn't confirmed to be 2016, but it won't be far off and DQ: Builders and DQ Heroes 2 are coming for certain in 2016. DQ Heroes sold over 800k on PS3/PS4. These are big titles that will push a lot of hardware.

Not to mention the several titles that will do well throughout year (Star Ocean, Yakuza, Street Fighter V, Attack on Titan, Dark Souls 3, and One Piece Burning Blood will all do 100k+ easily). The games I mentioned are just in the first 4 months too.

Final Fantasy has a good shot at 1 million if it's actually good and exclusive, but it could end multiplatform with NX if it is a home console. Same for dragon quest XI (wich even has a 3ds version). Dragon quest builders doesn't seem like it wil sell much and 800k across two platforms isn't much for DQH. It certainly has a number of releases that will push hardware in different levels but the possibility of a new platform, better and getting the same multis + nintendo exclusives can't be ignored and would affect ps4 sales greatly.

I think you underestimate the impact of an 800k selling title. For reference, there are only two million sellers in Japan for PS3 (Final Fantasy XIII and Resident Evil 5, even though RE6 was very close). The PS3 got large boosts from a bunch of games of the caliber I mentioned. 

DQH only opened to 265k on PS4, and it still doubled HW for the week (in which is cleared top selling platform by 10k, so it was a slower part of the year). A consistent flow of appealing games will do more to help the PS4 than a few very big games.

Now, for the point of the potential NX coming and stealing all of the PS4's market? We'll have to wait and see, but it would be very much not Nintendo to go after the same red ocean as Sony (not to mention that it's very difficult to argue about stealing marketshare away when the market has been dwindled down so much by mobile gaming).



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