I think it might have a chance to hit 3 billion those are definitely 4 valid reasons why it might. Like I already said in another tread about Avatar 2 too bad that James Horner is no longer around to compose the score for it. Cameron should probably work with Alan Silvestri again and if he hires someone new Hans Zimmer would be a great choice.

You are seriously comparing the nostalgic effects of franchises such as Star Wars or Jurassic to Avatar? A movie that most people went to see for its visuals and 'perfect storm world event' impact? Avatar 2 won't even match the original's unadjusted gross, let alone make 3 billion. Most people who have seen Avatar do not want a sequel.

Also , you should realize from your own post that reason #4 is totally invalid when discussion an Avatar 2 gross projection. Being #2 in Blu-Ray sales means nothing, especially since #1 came 4 YEARS after Avatar and its domestic gross is barely over 1/2 of what Avatar accumulated. If the majority of people actually loved Avatar to the point they would want to see it again or see a sequel, those blu-ray sales should be 2x of that number. I guarantee you, Avatar 2 won't even come close.

Avatar 2 will need a big "hook" or special something if it is even going to do $300+ million US. I don't doubt that it will do $700+ million outside the US, as foreign markets will eat it up...

Another small thing that Avatar had going for it was the currency exchange rate, with the current U.S dollar exchange rate, Avatar would probably have close to 400$ million less in it's foreign total, still monster numbers though. But if the U.S dollar continues to get stronger, than it will be harder for it to match the first ones foreign numbers.

I think your underestimating Cameron as a director by saying it has no chance.  T2 is pretty much the best sequel ever and one of the most success sequels also.  If Avatar 2 comes close to improving upon the first movie like T2 did with the first Terminator movie there is actually a pretty good chance of it making $3 billion.

Well, i for one look forward to another Plinkett review.

You're joking right?

Not going to happen for two reasons. One, the only reason Avatar made that money was because of 3D hype. While 3D is here to stay, no one gets hyped up for it anymore. And two, no one cares about Avatar itself. Its not a cultural phenomenon that people talk about, even when discussing movies. The only thing you hear now is how it ripped off Fern Gully/Dances With Wolves or how it doesn't hold up to multiple viewings. There are very few people who would put it in their Top 50 list, which is strange for the top grossing movie.

I can see 2 hitting 1B+ on name recognition and if they get some new hype going. And 3 will be lucky to hit 900M+.

Nope, no movie will pass the 3 Billions in BO at this points.
Star Wars VII might pass Jurassic World, but it won't ever beat Avatar in Box Office.