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Forums - Movies & TV - Star Wars :TFA - Avatar gap thread- Updated Daily! Post your predictions! - $2,064,018,389 as of 11th April 2016! - The GAP is in the OP

 

Can TFA make it to a Billion domestically?

Yes, explain below 35 31.53%
 
Maybe, but just barely 30 27.03%
 
No 38 34.23%
 
other post below 0 0%
 
see results 8 7.21%
 
Total:111
Wonktonodi on 05 January 2016
Shadow1980 said:
Well, TFW will likely have officially passed Avatar domestically once we get the final Monday numbers in. Now the only question remains "How much will it make?" At the very least it should surpass $900 million by a comfortable margin, but whether it hits a billion or not depends on how strong its legs are. Comparing it to how other movies performed after their third weekend, if Star Wars has legs like Jurassic World (proportionally speaking) it might only reach $925-950M, but if it has legs closer to The Avengers, it could squeak past the $1 billion mark.

I might have done some math wrong but for the other thread I was doing a calculation and if TFA have the same percentage of it's total after it's 17th day in theaters as JW it would be about $967M while for the Avengers it would be $1,010M and while it's not likely to have it be like Avatar but just for perspective if TFA has the same percentage of it's total gross at 17 days as Avatar(the $749M figure not the $760M) it would make $1,580M or more than all movies adjusted for inflation and rereleases except Gone with the Wind.

Personally I'm expecting it's legs to get it to get it bwteen 1.1 and 1.2 billion dollars so better than the Avengers but still much more frontloaded than Avatar



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Azhraell on 05 January 2016
Soundwave said:
Yeah this box office run is historic. Domestically I don't VIII or IX will top this, just because sequels rare topple the original without the pent up demand.

I don't think Avatar 2 will either, every streak runs out, Cameron's is just more pronounced because he makes such few films, but you could have said the same thing about Steven Spielberg circa 1982 (every movie he makes is the biggest movie evar!).

Titanic is really the one phenomenon that I don't think will ever be repeated in terms of ticket sales. That was just a monster of the pre-DVD age when people still went to see the same movie 4, 5, even 6+ times at the theater. Our culture just isn't like that anymore, too much entertainment, too many options, etc. nowadays.

Yup. I bet that Cameron can make the best film of the year with A2 and still wouldn't be enough to surpass the original, or even 2B





Wonktonodi on 06 January 2016
Miguel_Zorro said:
Wonktonodi said:

Where do you get the 10% at 31 days from? 

That would be worse legs than The Avengers or Jurassic World.

 

Jurassic World at Day 31 = 590,689,565.. at Day 161 = 652,198,011 = 10.4%

Age of Ultron at Day 31 =427,551,447.. at Day 77 = 455,530,367 = 6.5%

The First Avengers at Day 31 = 552,950,398.. at Day 133 = 621,623,219 = 12.4%

Of course, all of those movies came out in the summer, so there's that.

So 10% was an approximation.  The Force Awakens might have longer legs.. then again, it might not.  Maybe it could do 12% more after day 31.  I project it to be at $850 million after day 31.  But I think we all agree it's not going to do another 50% after the first month like Avatar did.  My estimate is that it will fall short of $1 billion, and by more than a few percentage points.  It will hit about $935 Million domestically.

 

Also there is quite a range between 10% and 50% of the last 3 star wars movies, episode 1 was over 27% episode 2 well under 10% and episode 3 just shy of 10%. Considering how well this one is recieved compared to the prequels I think guessing only 10% is a little conservative.

Though we still need almost 2 weeks of data before we'll even know what it will be on the 31st to compare.





brute on 08 January 2016

Yeah, 1 re-release with extra footage should do the trick to push it over 1 billion domestically.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Lawlight on 09 January 2016

Lol, was the poll updated?



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Lawlight on 10 January 2016
spurgeonryan said:
Lawlight said:
Lol, was the poll updated?

 


Yes sir! The old one was if it would pass avatar domestically. It did!

 

Wasn't the old one about passing Avatar worldwide? Or something like passing $3B?



COX on 10 January 2016

If Sw6 has the same kind of legs than SW 1 or SW2 I don't see why it wouldn't be able to reach 1B in USA.



Lawlight on 12 January 2016
spurgeonryan said:
COX said:
If Sw6 has the same kind of legs than SW 1 or SW2 I don't see why it wouldn't be able to reach 1B in USA.

 


Well with another 40 million this weekend, with its biggest challenge until the Panda movie now behind it, TFA could very well make it. I guess we will have to see what critics think of Ride alone 2, but it is bound to get at least 30 million. Of course, TFA does not need to be 1st place to make a sizeable dent in that billion goal. Then we have what it makes during the week as well.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars7.htm

 

The gap is now close to only 1 billion dollars! See OP.

So, you think it will drop less than 5% next week to $40M when it dropped 40%, 40% and 53% in the past 3 week-ends?





brute on 12 January 2016
Lawlight said:
spurgeonryan said:

 


Well with another 40 million this weekend, with its biggest challenge until the Panda movie now behind it, TFA could very well make it. I guess we will have to see what critics think of Ride alone 2, but it is bound to get at least 30 million. Of course, TFA does not need to be 1st place to make a sizeable dent in that billion goal. Then we have what it makes during the week as well.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=starwars7.htm

 

The gap is now close to only 1 billion dollars! See OP.

So, you think it will drop less than 5% next week to $40M when it dropped 40%, 40% and 53% in the past 3 week-ends?

 

I think he meant 40 million for this past weekend, he mentions TFA doesn't need to be first to do good while saying that Ride Along will probably get 30 mil, so he thinks TFA will get less than 30 mill.

 

I think it can get around 37 million including MLK Monday. 



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

LipeJJ on 15 January 2016

I can't see Star Wars not reaching Avatar anymore. So I bet it will!



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won