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Miguel_Zorro said:
Wonktonodi said:

Where do you get the 10% at 31 days from? 

That would be worse legs than The Avengers or Jurassic World.



 

Jurassic World at Day 31 = 590,689,565.. at Day 161 = 652,198,011 = 10.4%

Age of Ultron at Day 31 =427,551,447.. at Day 77 = 455,530,367 = 6.5%

The First Avengers at Day 31 = 552,950,398.. at Day 133 = 621,623,219 = 12.4%

Of course, all of those movies came out in the summer, so there's that.

So 10% was an approximation.  The Force Awakens might have longer legs.. then again, it might not.  Maybe it could do 12% more after day 31.  I project it to be at $850 million after day 31.  But I think we all agree it's not going to do another 50% after the first month like Avatar did.  My estimate is that it will fall short of $1 billion, and by more than a few percentage points.  It will hit about $935 Million domestically.

 

Also there is quite a range between 10% and 50% of the last 3 star wars movies, episode 1 was over 27% episode 2 well under 10% and episode 3 just shy of 10%. Considering how well this one is recieved compared to the prequels I think guessing only 10% is a little conservative.

Though we still need almost 2 weeks of data before we'll even know what it will be on the 31st to compare.