So far it's on track to beating Awakening in Japan. I believe the same will hold for America and Europe.
So I'm going to say 2.5 million for now.

According to VGC, they're about equal, which is pretty bad for a 2v1. It'll eventually pass it if it didn't already (nothing online I found says it has thus far, but it's a safer bet to assume it did). It is worth noting that sources seem to say that most of the buyers were pre-orders in Japan, which sort of goes to my point of FEnatics being the main audience at this point. It won't be a huge difference in overall sales vs Awakening unless America eats both games up though. Knowing how Nintendo goes by shipped+digital, they're going to overstate the game's numbers either way due to the discount on the second campaign download. It'll probably hit 1.4 or so million in NA alone because of the hardcore fans buying in on both games - which again is a shame since it's just showing Nintendo that fans are okay with them Pokemoning a story-driven franchise even though that's a terrible strategy. 

I'm sure the actual (third) DLC campaign will be counted as DLC, but Nintendo will count each buy of the opposite campaign DLC (Birthright if you buy Conquest first and vice versa) as a separate sale. I'd also be careful not to overestimate and assume everybody is going to pay $80 for one game. Unless the third campaign is necessary as a true ending only the big fans will dive in at $20 a pop; most of the other people will buy one copy, play it for about halfway through and stop like with every video game. If that third campaign is in fact necessary I'm gonna be pissed, since as you can tell I already feel they're milking this franchise too hard

As others have said, Fates seems on track to beat Awakening soon in Japan. This coupled with more visibility for the franchise in the West should allow it to at least get close to the 2 million mark.

As an aside, I'm very excited for the game and to see where the series will go in the future. It seems to be on the upswing ever since Awakening came out.

Its not bad, Fates>Awakening in Japan. Fates is over 530k in sales (just saw it in one of the gaf threads), and another thing you dont realize is the number doesn't include dlc buyout for the second version. So its not 2v1.

If Sales were counted that 530k number would most likely be somewhere between 850k-1mil in sales

Yes it will

Here it is...


1. Nintendo

1. [3DS] Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer # (Nintendo) {2015.07.30} (¥4.320) - 1.150.500
2. [WIU] Splatoon # (Nintendo) {2015.05.28} (¥6.156) - 819.940
3. [3DS] Fire Emblem Fates: Birthright / Conquest # (Nintendo) {2015.06.25} (¥5.076) - 536.121
4. [3DS] Rhythm Heaven: The Best+ (Nintendo) {2015.06.11} (¥5.076) - 511.024
5. [3DS] The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask 3D # (Nintendo) {2015.02.14} (¥5.076) - 446.559

FE over 536k (Famitsu, no MC surperior #s). Imagine how much it is when counting other version as a sale

You expect a 60-90% attach rate for the second campaign download? Lol your bias is showing buddy. I stand slightly corrected on the sales being a whopping 30k higher than previously reported months ago. 

Good job skipping past the rest of my post too. I've outright said I expect it to outsell Awakening slightly physically, with digital sales being the bulk of the difference between the two overall due to the extra campaign DLC bundle; again, it's not very hard to outsell on a higher install base with a more casual-focused set of two games vs. one semi-casual game. Nintendo set this game up to succeed no matter what so it's gonna do well, albeit with an asterisk on final sales when reported officially by Nintendo down the line. 

This is what I said in the last one of these threads we had.
I bought the eShop version and I've since purchased all three lines, so is that 3 sales or just one for Nintendo.

If it counts as three, this game is going over 3 million. If not, It'll still do 2.5 million+. It's better than Awakening and since FE's fanbase has grown, it should sell even better.

The fact that they are selling two (three if you count the DLC) almost guarantees it.

I am going with 2mil.