Lol, they already have an HDTV...and were actually talking about getting a blu-ray player, but not until the price drops a little. My parents too.

But anyhow, I see your point, but it takes a lot more "tech savvy" person to download than to put a blu-ray in a player.

An example, my three year old nephew already knows how to put in a dvd and put the tv on the right station. Can you picture a 3 year old downloading and burning movies? Of course a 3 year old won't be buying blu-ray players, but the same applies to everyone--it's more simple to use physical media--AT THIS TIME.

I do think downloading media has a future...but it won't kill blu-ray...in fact, I don't think downloads will dominate for at least 10 years.

I think the real battle for blu-ray is against dvd, not downloads. 

Minimum 5 years untill this could have any chance against BD . And untill then the ground to cover would be so big , that they couldent kill BRD ...

That kind of internet speed is only feasible in the short to medium term in areas with very high population densities.

Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/World_population_density_map.PNG

Countries in Yellow will not have that kind of infrastructure in less dense areas until some kind of satellite internet. Heck if we go by KingOfWales, even internet in Toronto sucks. Will movie companies completely ignore Canada's 22% of rural consumers? Ignore much of Russia, much of Autralia, large parts of the American population because these people are too far from a major city to get good internet? I doubt it.

So until the internet infrastructure can connect all these people, physical media will exist.

Also, it depends on how tech-savvy the consumers are. I am so glad HD-DVD died because I'm sick of explaining the difference between HD-DVD and upscale DVD player.

 A lady insisted on the dvd she bought was faulty because it only has French language. *sighs*

Don't forget the excessive and restrictive DRM that downloads have. Forget about movie parties where you take your new Blu-ray to a friend to watch or purchase a movie to keep.
Downloads will only replace rentals and only in the medium to long term. In the short term they are as good as Blu-ray only more restrictive. In the medium term I see blu-ray as the king of movie purchases and share same percentage as downloads for rentals.

I believe this was posted here previously. This is not really HD because the bit rates are way too low.

http://blogs.zdnet.com/Ou/?p=959

@ KingofWale - Neither, both are not the target for HDTV and movies

@ Dragonlord - Then how is adding an Apple TV box on top and letting them choose a movie to watch that far fetched??

@ Dogsrules - You're right, physical media will still exist, but no way near the way DVD ruled. Yeah, urban density in South Dakota is low, but you're ignoring all the major cities. The places where yuppies who buy movies and HDTV's live. Also who cares if no one in Africa or India has access to high speed internet because they're probably going to be on VHS's and DVD's for the next decade anyways.

Well those people that are gramps and living in rural areas better live another 50 years and willing to buy Blu-Ray cuz HERE IN THE CITIES, where most of the consumption takes place, most people in their 30s and even 40s are pretty aware of the internet, have high speed internet and are more than willing to spent on video downloads.

I think downloading will be EXTREMELY popular within 20 years.....Like Dragonlord said, some ppl don't know how to use computers easily.......

In other news, Blu-ray will be overthrown by the mighty CASSETTE!!!!! It will, just wait

@Fuschia quote.

I would think that the the people from South Dakota would be MORE prone to buy movies for the simple fact that they have less access to various forms of entertainment. You're from Toronto, I've been there. There is tones of entertainment. You can go to the movies, you can go to theatres, you can go to great restaurants, you can go to bars and my choise stripclubs (though for the last two I'm better off here in Quebec city). Watching movies at home has to compete with that. Its not the case in rural areas. Ask DragonLord why he has so many dvd's living in Indiana (no offense DragonLord :) ).

@Green quote.

These are growth markets that should never be ignored. If just the top 1% of those countries want to have High definition movies over what dvd offers, then that is alot of people that would be buying physical HD media.

EDIT: By countries, I mean the countries in Africa and as well as India. Also include China.