Don't forget the excessive and restrictive DRM that downloads have. Forget about movie parties where you take your new Blu-ray to a friend to watch or purchase a movie to keep.
Downloads will only replace rentals and only in the medium to long term. In the short term they are as good as Blu-ray only more restrictive. In the medium term I see blu-ray as the king of movie purchases and share same percentage as downloads for rentals.
PSN ID: T_Gears
End of 2009 ltd sales:
Wii = 67-68m
X360 = 38-39m
PS3 = 34-35m
Prediction: The PS3 will surpass the 360 on weekly sales after it drops to $299 on all regular weeks (no big releases).