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Forums - Gaming Discussion - The Nintendo Black Friday Deals are kind of freakin' amazing.

potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

 

A $150 Nintendo console with new releases every month compared to a $300 Nintendo console with new releases every 3-4 months that have similar levels if power, ya I'd say the $150 console with a consistent releases schedule would sell quite a bitter better. 3-4x as much, perhaps not but 2-2.5x as much, ya that sounds reasonable.

As for why I'm comparing it to 3DS, because 3DS proves the amount of people who are interested in Nintendo games is much higher than Wii U, if it's at the right price and the right software output.

Let's assume the NX is the Wii U2, and comes out somehow at $150 (it won't unless Nintendo wants to take a loss), and Nintendo puts out first party games at the rate they do now, but every title they put out is compatible with it, that still wouldn't be a new first party game every month. It would be 5-6 per year rather than 3-4. But even with that, let's assume it sells double the Wii U, or about 25 million in 3 years - That would still be a failure especially if Nintendo is taking a loss on the console, and their attach rate decreases because more causal gamers are buying the console.



 

How do u figure it would only be 5-6 games per year with a unified concept?

February-Majora's Mask 3D, Kirby Rainbow Curse, Pokémon Shuffle

March-Codename STEAM, Fossil Fighters, Mario Party 10, Mario vs DK

April-Boxboy, Xenoblade Chronicles 3D, Pokémon Rumble World

May-Stretchmo, Puzzles & Dragons: Super Mario Edition, Splatoon

June-Dr. Mario: Miracle Cure, Art Academy: Home Studio

September-Super Mario Maker, Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer

October-Chibi Robo: Zip Lash, Yoshi's Woolly World, Triforce Heroes

November-Amiibo Festival, Mario Tennis, Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon

December-Xenoblade Chronicles X, Nintendo Badge Arcade, Pokémon Picross

Thays just this year's lineup of Nintendo franchises in the US and 2013/2014 had similar output as well.

25 million is fine if the handheld sells similar to 3DS, like u said in our discussion in a previous thread, u think if they go with a unified platform than the handheld and console will likely use the same or nearly identical hardware so if they are shipping something like 15+ million total units per year than they will most likely get a much better deal on components compared to Wii U which ships like 3 million per year. That goes for screens as well if they decide to keep the Gamepad, currently they are buying 6 different types of screens (2DS-1, N3DS-2, N3DSXL-2, Wii U-1) if the Gamepad for NX uses the same screen as the handheld counterpart than they can very likely save a lot of money that way as well.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

Let's assume the NX is the Wii U2, and comes out somehow at $150 (it won't unless Nintendo wants to take a loss), and Nintendo puts out first party games at the rate they do now, but every title they put out is compatible with it, that still wouldn't be a new first party game every month. It would be 5-6 per year rather than 3-4. But even with that, let's assume it sells double the Wii U, or about 25 million in 3 years - That would still be a failure especially if Nintendo is taking a loss on the console, and their attach rate decreases because more causal gamers are buying the console.



 

How do u figure it would only be 5-6 games per year with a unified concept?

February-Majora's Mask 3D, Kirby Rainbow Curse, Pokémon Shuffle

March-Codename STEAM, Fossil Fighters, Mario Party 10, Mario vs DK

April-Boxboy, Xenoblade Chronicles 3D, Pokémon Rumble World

May-Stretchmo, Puzzles & Dragons: Super Mario Edition, Splatoon

June-Dr. Mario: Miracle Cure, Art Academy: Home Studio

September-Super Mario Maker, Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer

October-Chibi Robo: Zip Lash, Yoshi's Woolly World, Triforce Heroes

November-Amiibo Festival, Mario Tennis, Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon

December-Xenoblade Chronicles X, Nintendo Badge Arcade, Pokémon Picross

Thays just this year's lineup of Nintendo franchises in the US and 2013/2014 had similar output as well.

25 million is fine if the handheld sells similar to 3DS, like u said in our discussion in a previous thread, u think if they go with a unified platform than the handheld and console will likely use the same or nearly identical hardware so if they are shipping something like 15+ million total units per year than they will most likely get a much better deal on components compared to Wii U which ships like 3 million per year. That goes for screens as well if they decide to keep the Gamepad, currently they are buying 6 different types of screens (2DS-1, N3DS-2, N3DSXL-2, Wii U-1) if the Gamepad for NX uses the same screen as the handheld counterpart than they can very likely save a lot of money that way as well.

I'm talking about notable games that the average Nintendo fan will want to buy. Not mobile games. Not free-to-play estore titles. Not titles that the average Nintendo fan has ever heard of much less would be interested in buying. No one is lining up for the midnight release of Nintendo Badge arcade or Art Academy: Home studio, and no one is passing up on a Wii U because Fossil Fighters only came out for the 3DS and not the Wii U. Splatoon will sell more than most every other game on that list combined.

You know exactly what I meant- notable games that help sell systems. If you really think that a noticable amount og people are going to decide to get an NX Home after passing on the Wii U because they can play Stretchmo 2 on it, well you're in for a surprise.

As for 25 million being "fine", how about you take a moment to consider how many people think the gamecube was a success. That sold 35 million.






potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

 

How do u figure it would only be 5-6 games per year with a unified concept?

February-Majora's Mask 3D, Kirby Rainbow Curse, Pokémon Shuffle

March-Codename STEAM, Fossil Fighters, Mario Party 10, Mario vs DK

April-Boxboy, Xenoblade Chronicles 3D, Pokémon Rumble World

May-Stretchmo, Puzzles & Dragons: Super Mario Edition, Splatoon

June-Dr. Mario: Miracle Cure, Art Academy: Home Studio

September-Super Mario Maker, Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer

October-Chibi Robo: Zip Lash, Yoshi's Woolly World, Triforce Heroes

November-Amiibo Festival, Mario Tennis, Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon

December-Xenoblade Chronicles X, Nintendo Badge Arcade, Pokémon Picross

Thays just this year's lineup of Nintendo franchises in the US and 2013/2014 had similar output as well.

25 million is fine if the handheld sells similar to 3DS, like u said in our discussion in a previous thread, u think if they go with a unified platform than the handheld and console will likely use the same or nearly identical hardware so if they are shipping something like 15+ million total units per year than they will most likely get a much better deal on components compared to Wii U which ships like 3 million per year. That goes for screens as well if they decide to keep the Gamepad, currently they are buying 6 different types of screens (2DS-1, N3DS-2, N3DSXL-2, Wii U-1) if the Gamepad for NX uses the same screen as the handheld counterpart than they can very likely save a lot of money that way as well.

I'm talking about notable games that the average Nintendo fan will want to buy. Not mobile games. Not free-to-play estore titles. Not titles that the average Nintendo fan has ever heard of much less would be interested in buying. No one is lining up for the midnight release of Nintendo Badge arcade or Art Academy: Home studio, and no one is passing up on a Wii U because Fossil Fighters only came out for the 3DS and not the Wii U. Splatoon will sell more than most every other game on that list combined.

You know exactly what I meant- notable games that help sell systems. If you really think that a noticable amount og people are going to decide to get an NX Home after passing on the Wii U because they can play Stretchmo 2 on it, well you're in for a surprise.

As for 25 million being "fine", how about you take a moment to consider how many people think the gamecube was a success. That sold 35 million.




GameCube sold 35 million? U might want to look that up again, it sold just under 22 million. But like I said 25m is fine if they utilize a unified concept where the devices have the same components and share a library. The success of individual devices is no longer as important and it's more about getting the total amount of hardware sales to a high level that allows for their franchises to sell strong numbers and allows them to diversify by no longer needing to make 2 of every major franchise each generation.

Not every game is meant to be or needs to be a system seller, it's about having a steady stream of software releases ranging from small to medium to big games. It could be argued what is considered a "big" release, u would probably say something like Happy Home Designer is a cheap, small game but it's on track to sell over 3 million, clearly a big release that is bigger or on par with the AAA console releases like Bloodborne, The Order, Evolve, DBZ: Xenoverse, Battlefield: Hardline. Another small, casual game like Tomodachi Life has sold on par with games like Dying Light, Arkham Knight, Witcher 3. Mario Party is another game considered to be a small and worthless release by hardcover forum goers yet those games consistantly sell over 1 million. Nintendo is able to release a variety of small/medium/big games each year. Here's 2013/2014 as well for comparison.

2013

February-Fire Emblem: Awakening, Brain Age: Concentration Training

March-Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon, Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Gates to Infinity

April-Dillon's Rolling Western: Last Ranger

May-Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D, Mario vs DK: Minis on the Move

June-Animal Crossing: New Leaf, Game & Wario, New Super Luigi U

August-Mario & Luigi: Dream Team, Pikmin 3, Pokémon Rumble U

September-Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD, Wonderful 101

October-Pokémon X and Y, Wii Party U

November-Super Mario 3D World, The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds, Mario Party: Island Tour

December-Dr. Luigi, NES Remix

2014

January-Chibi Robo: Photo Finder, Wii Fit U

February-DKC: Tropical Freeze, Steel Diver: Sub Wars

March-Yoshi's New Island, Pokémon Battle Trozei

April-Rusty's Real Deal Baseball

May-Mario Kart 8, Kirby: Triple Deluxe, Mario Golf: World Tour

June-Tomodachi Life, Pushmo World

July-Wii Sports Club

September-Hyrule Warriors

October-Super Smash Bros 3DS, Bayonetta 2, Pokémon Art Academy

November-Super Smash Bros Wii U, Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire

December-Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker

This is just games based on Nintendo IP, it doesn't include all the 3rd party releases.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

 

How do u figure it would only be 5-6 games per year with a unified concept?

February-Majora's Mask 3D, Kirby Rainbow Curse, Pokémon Shuffle

March-Codename STEAM, Fossil Fighters, Mario Party 10, Mario vs DK

April-Boxboy, Xenoblade Chronicles 3D, Pokémon Rumble World

May-Stretchmo, Puzzles & Dragons: Super Mario Edition, Splatoon

June-Dr. Mario: Miracle Cure, Art Academy: Home Studio

September-Super Mario Maker, Animal Crossing: Happy Home Designer

October-Chibi Robo: Zip Lash, Yoshi's Woolly World, Triforce Heroes

November-Amiibo Festival, Mario Tennis, Pokémon Super Mystery Dungeon

December-Xenoblade Chronicles X, Nintendo Badge Arcade, Pokémon Picross

Thays just this year's lineup of Nintendo franchises in the US and 2013/2014 had similar output as well.

25 million is fine if the handheld sells similar to 3DS, like u said in our discussion in a previous thread, u think if they go with a unified platform than the handheld and console will likely use the same or nearly identical hardware so if they are shipping something like 15+ million total units per year than they will most likely get a much better deal on components compared to Wii U which ships like 3 million per year. That goes for screens as well if they decide to keep the Gamepad, currently they are buying 6 different types of screens (2DS-1, N3DS-2, N3DSXL-2, Wii U-1) if the Gamepad for NX uses the same screen as the handheld counterpart than they can very likely save a lot of money that way as well.

I'm talking about notable games that the average Nintendo fan will want to buy. Not mobile games. Not free-to-play estore titles. Not titles that the average Nintendo fan has ever heard of much less would be interested in buying. No one is lining up for the midnight release of Nintendo Badge arcade or Art Academy: Home studio, and no one is passing up on a Wii U because Fossil Fighters only came out for the 3DS and not the Wii U. Splatoon will sell more than most every other game on that list combined.

You know exactly what I meant- notable games that help sell systems. If you really think that a noticable amount og people are going to decide to get an NX Home after passing on the Wii U because they can play Stretchmo 2 on it, well you're in for a surprise.

As for 25 million being "fine", how about you take a moment to consider how many people think the gamecube was a success. That sold 35 million.




GameCube sold 35 million? U might want to look that up again, it sold just under 22 million. But like I said 25m is fine if they utilize a unified concept where the devices have the same components and share a library. The success of individual devices is no longer as important and it's more about getting the total amount of hardware sales to a high level that allows for their franchises to sell strong numbers and allows them to diversify by no longer needing to make 2 of every major franchise each generation.

Not every game is meant to be or needs to be a system seller, it's about having a steady stream of software releases ranging from small to medium to big games. It could be argued what is considered a "big" release, u would probably say something like Happy Home Designer is a cheap, small game but it's on track to sell over 3 million, clearly a big release that is bigger or on par with the AAA console releases like Bloodborne, The Order, Evolve, DBZ: Xenoverse, Battlefield: Hardline. Another small, casual game like Tomodachi Life has sold on par with games like Dying Light, Arkham Knight, Witcher 3. Mario Party is another game considered to be a small and worthless release by hardcover forum goers yet those games consistantly sell over 1 million. Nintendo is able to release a variety of small/medium/big games each year. Here's 2013/2014 as well for comparison.

2013

February-Fire Emblem: Awakening, Brain Age: Concentration Training

March-Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon, Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Gates to Infinity

April-Dillon's Rolling Western: Last Ranger

May-Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D, Mario vs DK: Minis on the Move

June-Animal Crossing: New Leaf, Game & Wario, New Super Luigi U

August-Mario & Luigi: Dream Team, Pikmin 3, Pokémon Rumble U

September-Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker HD, Wonderful 101

October-Pokémon X and Y, Wii Party U

November-Super Mario 3D World, The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds, Mario Party: Island Tour

December-Dr. Luigi, NES Remix

2014

January-Chibi Robo: Photo Finder, Wii Fit U

February-DKC: Tropical Freeze, Steel Diver: Sub Wars

March-Yoshi's New Island, Pokémon Battle Trozei

April-Rusty's Real Deal Baseball

May-Mario Kart 8, Kirby: Triple Deluxe, Mario Golf: World Tour

June-Tomodachi Life, Pushmo World

July-Wii Sports Club

September-Hyrule Warriors

October-Super Smash Bros 3DS, Bayonetta 2, Pokémon Art Academy

November-Super Smash Bros Wii U, Pokémon Omega Ruby/Alpha Sapphire

December-Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker

This is just games based on Nintendo IP, it doesn't include all the 3rd party releases.

Okay, sorry. I got the N64 and GC's totals mixed up. But the point remains. Nintendo was flat out embarassed by Sony when the PS1 decimated the N64. No reasonable person considers that console to be a very successful platform, especially considering it marked the beginning of the abandonment by third parties. Third parties were tired of Nintendo's shit, and we no longer forced to work with them to reach their target audience, and many have not been back.

After that you're moving the goalposts. The sales of an NX home doesn't really matter if the NX handheld sells about the same as the 3DS? Really? We don't even know if the NX is actuallty more than one device! We don't actually know if it is more than one device if the software is shared amongst every hardware platform! Just because this platform might have a shared library (which I doubt) suddenly the sales of one of these devices is less significant? What? Well let's say the software libraries aren't shared - what then? We're in a very similar boat to what we're in now with the Wii U and 3DS. Do Wii U sales suddenly not matter much at all? I guess Nintendo can wait to release the NX! If we combine 3DS and Wii U sales it's about twice as high as PS4 sales! Nintendo shouldn't have a care in the world right now by your logic.

Aside from that, you're right, not every game has to be a system seller. But if there aren't enough system sellers on your platform to you know, actually sell systems, then the other lesser, cheaper, "supporting" titles don't really matter much do they? Why do you keep pushing Nintendo's published titles as if it's impressive? As if it actually makes a different. Combine them all you want, it's not going to make the Wii U sell as well as the Wii or the 3DS sell as well as the DS is it? Nintendo is withdrawing back into its shell and trying to find a way to such every spare dime out of the ever decreasing hardcore Nintendo fans they have left.





potato_hamster said:

After that you're moving the goalposts. The sales of an NX home doesn't really matter if the NX handheld sells about the same as the 3DS? Really? We don't even know if the NX is actuallty more than one device! We don't actually know if it is more than one device if the software is shared amongst every hardware platform! Just because this platform might have a shared library (which I doubt) suddenly the sales of one of these devices is less significant? What? Well let's say the software libraries aren't shared - what then? We're in a very similar boat to what we're in now with the Wii U and 3DS. Do Wii U sales suddenly not matter much at all? I guess Nintendo can wait to release the NX! If we combine 3DS and Wii U sales it's about twice as high as PS4 sales! Nintendo shouldn't have a care in the world right now by your logic.

Aside from that, you're right, not every game has to be a system seller. But if there aren't enough system sellers on your platform to you know, actually sell systems, then the other lesser, cheaper, "supporting" titles don't really matter much do they? Why do you keep pushing Nintendo's published titles as if it's impressive? As if it actually makes a different. Combine them all you want, it's not going to make the Wii U sell as well as the Wii or the 3DS sell as well as the DS is it? Nintendo is withdrawing back into its shell and trying to find a way to such every spare dime out of the ever decreasing hardcore Nintendo fans they have left.



 

How am moving goalposts? We have been discussing Nintendo making a theoretical unified platform for 3 days now, no goalposts have been changed. And yes, if Nintendo does indeed go for a unified concept where there are 2-3 form factors for the same platform that share the same  components and software library than the individual sales of the form factors is less of a concern than it currently is now. Let's say NX Console sells 15 million, NX Portable 55 million, NX Tablet 30 million for a total of 100 million, how is that any different than if NX Console sells 30 million, NX Portable 45 million, NX Tablet 25 million for a total of 100 million? Either way that's 100 million of the same components and an install base of 100 million to sell to. Ur right that if Nintendo doesn't go for a unified concept and instead has 2 completely separate platforms with completely different hardware and completely different software than they are in a similar position as 3DS/Wii U with those type of sales, but like I said our discussion has been about a theoretical unified platform for 3 days now so that is irrelevant to the discussion.

Obviously Nintendo has plenty of system sellers, otherwise they wouldn't have sold 65-70 million units of hardware between 3DS/Wii U thus far and on track to surpass 80 million by the time they are done selling. I'm pushing the amount of Nintendo IP per year because u said with a unified platform Nintendo would only have 5-6 releases per year, which the lists from 2013-2015 (each year that 3DS & Wii U have shared an entire year on the market together) show that Nintendo typically releases 20-25 games per year with a mix between small, medium and big releases.

Why do they need to sell like Wii/DS? U have said on multiple occasions that those devices were flukes and their success will never be replicated again. If those devices were in fact flukes than it makes no sense for them to be the threshold for what is considered a success or failure. The 3 previous generations before Wii/DS each sold about 100 million units, 3DS+Wii U are on track to sell about 80 million so not the massive decline that u make it out to be. The decline from 100 million to 80 million may not necessarily be simply because less people are interested in Nintendo. There are many potential factors such as marketing, both 3DS and Wii U had initial consumer confusion with many people thinking 3DS was just a DS revision along with many people thinking Wii U was just a Wii accessory.

Price is another potential issue, 3DS & Wii U are adjusted for inflation much higher priced than any other generation at this point in their lives. Back in 1993, NES cost $129.99 & Gameboy $59.99 for a total of $190, adjusted for inflation that's about $315. Back in 1998, N64 cost $129.99 and GBC $69.99 for a total of $200, adjusted for inflation that's about $290. Back in 2003, GC cost $99.99 and GBA SP $99.99 for a total of $200, adjusted for inflation that's about $260. So each of those 3 generations, it cost about $300 to own both a Nintendo console & handheld while it currently costs $500 to own a Wii U and N3DS XL.

A third potential issue is that Nintendo has a harder time supporting 2 separate platforms at a time than in the past with development time & costs increasing. This has led to both devices suffering from droughts at certain points in their lives. Marketing+price+software output are all legitimate potential reasons why they have had a decline this generation compared to previous ones, if Nintendo improves their marketing along with releasing less expensive devices and has a unified platform that can reduce the amount of droughts than Nintendo can potentially return to their 100 million baseline they had pre-Wii/DS.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.