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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Blah blah This gen will be the last blah blah Pachter

Michelasso on 15 September 2015
jason1637 said:
Michelasso said:
I've found a great way to be right when talking about video games: I read what the Pachter idiot says and I predict the opposite!


So all consoles will sell zero units?

There is no opposite when talking about Natural numbers.. My statement is that at the end of the generation the PS4/XBone/Wii U will NOT have sold 120/100/20 million. That's the logical negation. Now, would you like to bet? :p



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AZWification on 15 September 2015

I'm glad to see that Pachter hasn't changed at all!



                
       ---Member of the official Squeezol Fanclub---

SWORDF1SH on 15 September 2015
thismeintiel said:
SWORDF1SH said:
He actually can talk sense when talks about the business side of things but his predictions most of the time are embarrassingly wrong. This is no exception. I wonder sometimes if he justs likes to troll.

X1 100 million? Nope, I even doubt PS4 doing that. This gen will be much more front loaded and probably shorter. My guess 50m X1, 90M PS4.

I'll give you the shorter, though, it'll only be by a year or so.  But, front loaded?  How do you come to that conclusion when the PS4 is up YOY without a pricecut after almost 2 years?  This gen will not be more frontloaded than any other.  And sales are going to explode again once the price drops to $299, and then again (though probably to a smaller extent) at $199.

Either you agree with me or we both have different meanings for front loaded. 

PS4 sales are amazing and even the poor selling X1 is outselling the 360. Not saying sales will fall off a cliff in a few years but I feel it will have strong sales at the start but will decline faster in latter years. 



DonFerrari on 15 September 2015
SWORDF1SH said:
thismeintiel said:
SWORDF1SH said:
He actually can talk sense when talks about the business side of things but his predictions most of the time are embarrassingly wrong. This is no exception. I wonder sometimes if he justs likes to troll.

X1 100 million? Nope, I even doubt PS4 doing that. This gen will be much more front loaded and probably shorter. My guess 50m X1, 90M PS4.

I'll give you the shorter, though, it'll only be by a year or so.  But, front loaded?  How do you come to that conclusion when the PS4 is up YOY without a pricecut after almost 2 years?  This gen will not be more frontloaded than any other.  And sales are going to explode again once the price drops to $299, and then again (though probably to a smaller extent) at $199.

Either you agree with me or we both have different meanings for front loaded. 

PS4 sales are amazing and even the poor selling X1 is outselling the 360. Not saying sales will fall off a cliff in a few years but I feel it will have strong sales at the start but will decline faster in latter years. 

Maybe he don't consider having growth YoY on the 2nd year as frontloaded, while you consider Wii frontloaded...



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

SWORDF1SH on 15 September 2015
DonFerrari said:
SWORDF1SH said:

Either you agree with me or we both have different meanings for front loaded. 

PS4 sales are amazing and even the poor selling X1 is outselling the 360. Not saying sales will fall off a cliff in a few years but I feel it will have strong sales at the start but will decline faster in latter years. 

Maybe he don't consider having growth YoY on the 2nd year as frontloaded, while you consider Wii frontloaded...

And that's fine, just wanted a little clarification. It's just my opinion versus another, nice to debate a little.

Wii was a lot more front loaded when compared to the 360 and PS3. I expect this gen to follow a similar pattern to the Wii.



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jason1637 on 15 September 2015
Michelasso said:
jason1637 said:
Michelasso said:
I've found a great way to be right when talking about video games: I read what the Pachter idiot says and I predict the opposite!


So all consoles will sell zero units?

There is no opposite when talking about Natural numbers.. My statement is that at the end of the generation the PS4/XBone/Wii U will NOT have sold 120/100/20 million. That's the logical negation. Now, would you like to bet? :p


Lol yea i was joinking around and i wont bet cuz i know x1 and ps4 wont sell that much lol.



Frogger on 15 September 2015
binary solo said:
-20 million for PS4
-45 million for Xb one
-3 million for Wii U

Unified platform? Yeah, I don't think so. If MS doesn't have its own exclusive platform it won't retain any 1st party studios. Nintendo could go that way, but they are already quite far down the 9th gen path so they will have their own 9th gen no matter what. Sony could welcome in 3rd party hardware if it decided the only real profit is in games and provided all hardware met a minimum standard they could position their hardware at a premium level with more features than base units and thus sell smaller volumes of hardware but at a reasonable profit per unit.

The streaming model isn't ready to take over yet because globally internet speeds and reliability can't yet make Streaming viable in all markets. It's coming though.


There's a real big issue with thinking that internet needs to be fast enought and reliable enough in "all markets" for it to be viable. It only needs to be fast in enough markets, which it already is now, and it definitely will be by 2020-22 when this stuff starts taking over traditional console gaming.



Frogger on 15 September 2015
zero129 said:

Internet speeds will get fast enough where you wont be able to tell the difference. How long that will take? i dont know maybe another 20 years for it to be perfect enough to where you can play a game in the cloud and not be able to tell it apart from playing it localy. But then it doesnt even have to be that perfect or else BluRays would be the top format for watching movies yet more people stream movies online then watching them on bluray. CD'swould still be selling great and MP3's would be the cheapo solution that caters more to the lowest denominator.

Bingo. We have a winner.



Frogger on 15 September 2015
thismeintiel said:

I'll give you the shorter, though, it'll only be by a year or so.  But, front loaded?  How do you come to that conclusion when the PS4 is up YOY without a pricecut after almost 2 years?  This gen will not be more frontloaded than any other.  And sales are going to explode again once the price drops to $299, and then again (though probably to a smaller extent) at $199.


I'd say the opposite. It will definitely as long, if not longer, than last gen, but the sales are definitely front loaded. The sales won't be bad at the twilight of the generation, but it definitely won't be as explosive as its been recently. There will be a very noticable downslide in sales, likely starting the end of 2017, with sales plateauing at the end of next year. Stronge software sales are what will drag out the generation for PS4 and XBO.



ethomaz on 15 September 2015

Wii U seems right because Nintendo will release the NX in less than 2 years.

But what MS will do to hold the actual gap?