I don't know about launch window, but for the 1st year I'm guessing they'll have Zelda (U, optimized for NX ala Twilight Princess for Wii), a new 3D Mario, a Pokemon game, the next full-on Animal Crossing, some casual Wii Sports/Nintendoland-like game, whatever Retro's working on (probably some more mature-oriented title for diversity, not another DKC), as well as some Wii U ports and remakes.

A 2D Mario, probably with a Mario Maker, Zelda U, a Mii game (probably something like NX sports, this time with online multiplayer)...

Of Course, we don't know anything for sure on what game Retro is doing, but I think it will be launch in NX 1st year what ever it is.

That's certainly possible! I just hope they aren't working on anything DK-related! That's my only wish.

Pilotwings, an amiibo game, maybe SNES Remix or another console remix, 2D Mario, Mario Party, Kirby (maybe Air Ride) and Splatoon.

Buy the Super Monkey Ball franchise and launch NX with a new Amazing Monkey Ball game, similar to 1-2 and Banana Blitz.

But seriously, something Mario is the only safe bet.

I predict lots of mario and mini games.

To be honest I hope nobody buys it so ninty can go 3rd party.

Let's see...

October:
Mario 3D (Hopefully Galaxy 3);
Zelda U porting;
Pokken Porting;
Nintendoland Like game showing off new gimmiks;
New IP.

November:
Animal Crossing NX;
Smash 4 Premium Edition;

December:
Mother 4 (making impossible calls over here but I neded a HUGE game for Christmas :v)

January:
Metroid NX

February:
Kid Icarus NX (best gift ever for S.Valentine)

March:
Xenoblade spin-off cuz Nintendo

June:
Codename S.T.E.A.M. sequel, possibly with different graphics because that was the problem with the game...
F-Zero NX announcement at E3 releas date TBD (I know it isn't a release but with all these big names in the first year people would be upset if I didn't name F-Zero)

August:
Splatoon 2

September:
Kirby NX (special game in memory of Mr. Iwata)

So this is how you build a good instal base imho, keep in mind that if Nintendo follows this list NX will sell so much that they won't even have the problem of having used most of the main IPs in the first year

Half Life 3 getting released is more likely to happen than that.

Since Super mario galaxy there has been a home console 3d mario every 3 years, so there will probably be one due in 2016. A port of zelda wii u is looking likely and hopefully a new metroid game some when in mid 2017, that's my main wish at the moment anything else is just a bonus. For me the 3d iterations of zelda, metroid and mario are the holy trinity of gaming. To have my three favourite franchises during the launch window would be incredible (even if zelda is just a port).