I think its quite unlikely. Final Fantasy XV might as well be THE game of the generation in Japan. We're talking about a Main Entry being released at least six years after XIII, a game that has (and will) get overwhelming amounts of coverage and hype from the media and gaming community in general. And I don't care what the haters say, Japan still loves Final Fantasy.
I do believe Splatoon will break the 1 million mark by year's end though. Smash U better be ready to be the third best selling Wii U game in Japan.