Can it happen? | |||
| Yeah. | 252 | 32.43% | |
| Maybe. | 169 | 21.75% | |
| Nope. | 356 | 45.82% | |
| Total: | 777 | ||
Problem with Splatoon is its really handicapped on the Wii U platform that likely will start to wind down next year.
PS4 will probably be around for a long time in Japan and will start getting much more steady software support soon.
The insane thing about this thread is now it looks like Splatoon and FFXV will indeed potentially be in the same league sales wise, with Splatoon well on the way to 1.5mil+ in Japan which is just bonkers when we think that Splatoon was once thought to be a quaint game with potential for a tough total of 1mil worldwide. Crazy.
| PAOerfulone said: Maybe it will. But I'm not too sure. Depends on a variety of factors. 1) When Final Fantasy XV comes out. 2) How big of an opening will it have and its legs. Because XIII had a very, very strong opening. Terrible legs. 3) How much of an install base the PS4 has at that time, which maybe around the same as the PS3. XIII sold close to 1.9 million in Japan (PS3 and 360 versions), and this is just physical. and while the PS4 is doing tremendously well worldwide, its down in its 22nd month compared to the PS3 was in Japan. PS3 in September 2008, its 22nd month in Japan, was at 2.36 million. PS4 as of now,December 2015, is in its 22nd month in Japan, is at 2.08 million. What does this have to do with XV you may ask, because I think this serves as an indicator that XV will most likely finish around the same, better, or worse than XIII, depending on marketing and reception. PS3 got Final Fantasy XIII in December 2009, it's 3rd year. The PS4 has a high chance of getting XV next year. In fact, I think its been all but guaranteed given Square Enix asking fans if they prefer XV or Persona 5, which launches in either Summer or Fall next year. So XV might be closer to releasing than we think. So I'll predict that XV finishes with a little over 2 million in Japan. I'll say 2.15 million (Physical + Digital While this is going on, Splatoon will keep selling. It was confirmed to have reached 1 million copies sold in Japan not too long ago, that was for physical and digital. And it will reach 1 million copies sold, just physical before the year ends. The question remains of how it will perform in Japan throughout 2016. For comparision's sake, lets look at how Mario Kart 8 has done this year in Japan. As of December 13th, 2015, Mario Kart 8 has sold 312,160 copies in Japan in 2015. And this is just for physical. The reason I bring this up is because, if you compare the launches of Splatoon and Mario Kart 8 in Japan, back to back, Splatoon is tracking well ahead of Mario Kart 8. At the end of last year, Mario Kart 8 was at 844,134 copies sold, physically. Splatoon is ending the year at 1 million. And I think that next year, Splatoon will sell considerably more than the 312,160 copies in Japan that Mario Kart 8 did this year. So I'm gonna say that in 2016, in Japan, Splatoon will sell around 500,000 copies. Bring it's lifetime total sales in Japan at around 1.5 million. Final Fantasy XIII did that many copies in just one week. So I expect similar results from XV, an incredibly strong opening, but weak legs. So in the end, it'll come down to how well the PS4 is doing in Japan compared to the PS3. When Final Fantasy XV launches, and the legs of Splatoon. But based off of these estimates... I don't think Splatoon will do it. I think it's too much of an uphill battle, and with NX lurking around the corner as well, that could also effect Splatoon's legs. That combined, with the legacy and power of the Final Fantasy brand, will be too much to overcome. I think Final Fantasy XV will finish with more than Splatoon. |
you got 1.5 million lifetime for splatoon but it will probably in reality be at around 1.3 million at the end of the year because it is at 1 million physical already and there are 2 holiday weeks left and you didn't even include digital. Even if you just add the 500k you are talking about that puts it very close to FF13 lifetime sales.
currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X
Well, the reason I talk just physical is because we have no idea how much XIII really sold overall, when we take digital purchases into the picture. It's probably well over 2 million. That's why I made the 2.15 million prediction for XV, maybe more.
I think Splatoon has a good chance at getting 2 million in Japan with physical + digital. But I don't think it's going to top Final Fantasy XV.
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| PAOerfulone said: Well, the reason I talk just physical is because we have no idea how much XIII really sold overall, when we take digital purchases into the picture. It's probably well over 2 million. That's why I made the 2.15 million prediction for XV, maybe more. |
what do you mean? Was it even released digitally in 2009? How big was the file size? 50 gigs? I don't think at that time even if it was released barely anyone downloaded it in Japan.
currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X
Splatoon can do anything.
| PAOerfulone said: Well, the reason I talk just physical is because we have no idea how much XIII really sold overall, when we take digital purchases into the picture. It's probably well over 2 million. That's why I made the 2.15 million prediction for XV, maybe more. |
i mean i remember in 2009 when i bought my PS3 i thought my 80 gig hard drive was a pretty good size but FF13 would have filled it up instantly. Honestly, I don't think it was even released digitally though.
currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X
| Swordmasterman said: Anyone who want Splatoon, to Surpass Final Fantasy, Want Final Fantasy, to Flop, Final Fantasy, is really one of the Only Games that Can Push the Home Console Gaming on Japan and the whole Year of Splatoon, could not even Match the first Week of Final Fantasy X-2, that in My Opinion was the Worst in the Series. Final Fantasy XV, in Famitsu's Pool is one of the Most anticipated games on Japan is on the top 3, and was Nearly Behind Monster Hunter X, that did More than 2 Millions in the First Week. And Square Enix, is Saying that Final Fantasy XV, will be better than A lot of Previous Final Fantasy games, and will have the Better Vilian of all the Franchise. Final Fantasy, Doing Less than Splatoon, is a Gigantic Floop and the Dead of the Console Gaming on Japan. and you guys want to Compare Games of the Nintendo 3DS, Saying that Final Fantasy, will not sell this much but you Guys Forget that the 3DS, have 20 Millions of Install base on Japan Alone, vs 2.7 and 2.1 Millions of Wii U, and Playstation 4, when Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, and other games start to Launch, the Consoles will Have a Huge Jump, and if one of these games are not on Wii U, so Playstation 4, will Surpass Wii U on Japan. So put it in Mind, a Final Fantasy Flop in Japan, and is the End of the Japanese Console Market. |
FFX did extremely well FW, but had crap legs. The exact opposite is happening with Splatoon.
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ClassicGamingWizzz said:
"Yeah because Final Fantasy XV is looking like a masterpiece just like the XIII" yep ,, its the same shit, one and the other are soooooooooooooooo similar. "we need more pretty graphics" nop, we need more garbage graphics, what gaming needs is bad looking games, cause bad looking games = awsome games and good looking games can never be good games. " ridiculously high value productions " man, if gaming nevver had a AAA game again !!! imagine how much more fun would it be !!! " dumb teen storylines with 10000 cliches " Final fantasy = dumb teen storys !!! OMg you soo right !!! What gaming need is no storys at all and characters like random squid/boy with a random squirt machine gun or a pink blob. Final fantasy characters ? ALL trash both in design and personallity. "innovative and addictive games with superb gameplay" Yep, final fantasy games gameplay was all garbage in all their games, millions played them but had no fun at all. "are so overrated" Completly agree , it is indeed overrated , you had one think right in your comment.
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