Don't see how he missed your point. He showed there is no correlation between only looking at 6 months and the ultimate victor. But you can continue to jump to conclusions if you want.
Ubisoft is going to announce a PS3 exclusive. Is that the sign of the exodous? I guess so...
Ah, the top 50...6 Wii games are there last week. 6 out of 50 isn't very significant either. The top game right now is the PSP FFT remake, another "dead" system. Just shows that when (yes, it WILL HAPPEN) games come out that Japanese games want they will get them.
Now, the major weakness of your statements: what evidence suggests that Microsoft could ever hope to pull ahead in Japan? 341 more software sold this week? I guess we should just ignore that despite terrible hardware numbers for the PS3, it outsold the 360 almost 4 to 1. What software will save the 360? Lost Odyssey and...?
It is obvious that the Wii could continue to pull ahead of the PS3 in Japan in the near term, but to suggest that PS3 is hopeless already I just find shortsighted. The PS3 has far more 3rd party support than the N64 had.
I love these back and forths.
He didn't show that. He made the claim that you cannot possibly look at past generations to account for the present. If you look at the constants, you CAN.
I'll count 'em with you.
1st generation- The genesis of videogaming so not much of a contest here. Odyssey was 1st but gave way to Atari's PONG in the infancy of the forming business. The rules for engagement hadn't been formed yet. Odyssey was already on its way out by the time Atari PONG got on its way. Odyssey began the console business; Atari brought Scrooge's money bin to the game. Copycats-a-plenty followed but none could overthrow the reigning king of PONG, Atari. The momentum rule is established. Once hearts and minds of public is won the market is yours. And momentum is won in short time evidenced by the trailing sales of Atari's competitors. Atari became known AS videogaming and all other were imitators of the original. Wannabes.
2nd generation- Atari's momentum from its arcades and dedicated PONG consoles set it up for perfect success with the return of interchangeable cartridge gaming (like Odyssey & Channel F) with the Atari Video Computer System BKA the Atari 2600. Ralph Baer, the father of videogaming, wasn't gonna let Atari steal all the glory and put out the Odyssey 2. The first REAL "console war" for market supremacy had begun. Gaming was young and some people had never even seen the Odyssey in those days. But they saw Atari in the poolhalls and bars. Atari was videogaming to most people so momentum collected around Atari leaving Odyssey 2 with the leftovers. This pecking order was set early on with Atari 2600 launching in 1977 and Odyssey 2 launching in 1978. Also a part of this war was 1976's Fairchild Video Entertainment System or Channel F which preceded Atari and spurred Atari to even put together the VCS/2600 coming off of the declining PONG biz with copycats. Atari edged Channel F & its Channel F II redesign out of the market getting stronger and stronger games on their system. Atari hustled with hit games to crush competitors in this first real console face-off. Odyssey 2 did respectable but it couldn't surpass the building momentum of Atari. Space Invaders laid the smack down on the competition.
Atari victorious from this early 2nd gen battle faced off next against the technological monster known as the Mattel Intellivision. The first 16-bit console with beautiful graphics and sound for the time. Wowed people but Atari had the game rights to the big hit games and ended up edging out another competitor on the sales charts. The rule of 'power doesn't win the game' shows itself here.
After holding down that challenger more and more comers came out of the woodwork like the Vectrex & Colecovision jumped aboard with more and more power which Atari matched with the Atari 5200. All these competitors and the glut of games of dwindling quality bloated the market and soon the industry would face a crash that could doom the whole business to extinction.
3rd generation- Out of the ashes came this Japanese company named Nintendo who would soon restore and rewrite the industry in their own image. Old Atari momentum mattered for naught after the first Armageddon of the videogame industry. Nintendo WAS the 3rd generation and now WAS videogaming. The crown had been passed and Atari would continue the long slow descent. Challenger Sega couldn't stop the rapdily-building momentum of Nintendo and with their powerful games and controlling practices they established their empire.
4th generation- Shaken up from monopoly by government Nintendo faces competition from a renewed Sega hungry to topple the new king. Even more powerful machines like NEC's TurboGrafx-16 & Sega's Genesis found themselves in a battle against the old NES. But Sega hustled like no other said they did what Nintendon't and played upon their differences to be Warner Bros. to Nintendo's Disney. Nintendo answered back with the last of the 4th gen level machines with the SNES and for the first time counter momentums faced off. Sega's jumpstarted one and Nintendo's built-up one. In Japan this wasn't the case but everywhere else around the world Sega became a thorn in Nintendo's side. With Sonic and uncensored games they were ready to put the king down. The only time we saw a real contest between consoles and good games as a result. But in the end Sega sabotaged themselves and Nintendo pulled ahead.
5th generation- Sega unaware that it has short-circuited its momentum with the 32X & Sega CD put out the Saturn in short succession further alienating potential buyers. Newcomer Sony plans on paying Nintendo back for reneging on a deal with the Sony Playstation. PS1 goes after Sega for the initial attack and draws blood. Atari Jaguar, 3DO and other systems of that kind were non-factors in the race becoming over shadowed. Nintendo halts its tremendous momentum with ongoing 3rd party bullying and a controversial decision to stay with cartridges instead of moving to CD's. Sony's platform became THE viable alternative and the power structure shifted. Sony WAS NOW videogaming and Nintendo began the long console revenue underdog routine.
6th generation- Sega aborting its Saturn despite its success in Japan soured more players. In a one last chance effort to remain worthy as a player in the consolemaker's biz they put out the Dreamcast. All other minor players had faded from the scene by now and the competition became few. Sega was reversing its negative momentum while Sony was riding a wave of positive momentum. They launched their PS2 about a year later vampiring all the buzz the Dreamcast had built up in the time headed to launch. By the time the PS2 launched in USA Sega was on verge of exiting the game console biz. Mistakes of the past with money issues reduced the player who challenged the almighty Nintendo to just a publisher/developer. Sony ran unchallenged for virtual a year and a half cementing that momentous dominance. Challengers came too late. Newcomer Microsoft and its emerald onyx of power, the XBox, and negative momentum fighting Nintendo with its Gamecube. Like Atari way back when the rest were Johnny-Come-Latelies compared to the original games-king.
7th generation- Nintendo jumpstarts new momentum with revolutionary ideas. Sony began to see the shift in the handheld fight with their PSP going against Nintendo's DS. They found that it was more to Nintendo's dominance of the field than mere momentum even though that was on the factor. Microsoft built up a small buzz late in 6th generation that they sought to capitalize on with the early-launching XBox 360. Sony seeing a system marking it in its sights (360) and an oddball direction from this old thought-to-be-vanquished foe Sony goes into overdrive for their next console, the PS3. Arrogance has claimed another console champ and they don't see their decision sabotaging their direction. Now we have Wii's revolution restoring momentum to Nintendo's side on its way to dominance, XBox 360 becoming a solid system for a most gamebuyers, and PS3 under a cloud of doom.
Each generation showed a system early on capturing the imaginations of the buying public and capitalizing on it becoming the gen's leader. The generations show short-sightedness by winning company causing its downfall or eviction in some cases from the market. And we saw a clear gen winner by far each time. Only with 4th gen having an actual contest for certain regions like USA. We saw carried momentum and fresh-brewed momentum set the pecking order in the races. We saw fatal mistakes ruining companies' stake in this business.
Details are different but theme remains the same. History CAN show you the present. What a gift that will be!