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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japans PS3 Nightmare

JDWolf36 said:
Think that's a good point that basically the PS3 is not doomed it will most likely not exit the console market it is a failure in the since that it likely will not sell 100-120 million consoles that its predessors did but overall I think you'd have to wait until at least 2009 before you could call the system down and out. I think the main problem with the system right now is that a lot of its potential early adopters are more interested in the Xbox360 lineup this year as opposed to the PS3 it also hasn't exactly been well recieved by the majority of the gaming community it seems. Also yeah a system like the Wii this christmas is going to be a lot easier for I think parents of kids probably 5-18 to swallow getting at 250 and even the xbox360 at 400 than the PS3 at 600 and no that doesn't say anything about the value you get from the PS3 its just the idea that for those gamers with the funding coming from their parents and they are going to be less concerned I think in the most part about all the extras you get as opposed to just the plain and simple price your paying for the current gen system. So basically for this year you've got the older gamers that don't like a system like the Wii possibly leaning more towards a system that has already given them Gears of War and will deliver Halo later on while the other portion of gamers are more leaning towards the Wii. In the end though all this means and all it should mean for PS3 owners or those that desire to own it is that it won't be the best selling system this year and may not have as many games this year but still has a lot of potential for down the road but then again so did a system like the dreamcast so put up with the bashing for now you've had the number one selling system with some of the best games for the last decade.

 Learn to use paragraphs. I didn't even read your message.



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Pk9394 said:
on another personal opinion, I dont know how much taste others change according to play a golf game, But I dont want to play another golf game without the Wiimote. If Wii have redefined jp consumer's taste on how to play a golf game, then expect HSG 4 to have a low impact on ps3 sales.

That's an excellent point.  To share another personal experience...

I very nearly bought an XBox 360 the other night, because my Wii's in the shop (display glitch, few titles released lately so it seemed a good time to finally get it fixed) and I'm not quite ready to commit to the PS3 yet.  But as I was standing there contemplating the purchase, with my wife's full encouragement (she wants Viva Pinata), I realized the only game I was really itching to play on it was Guitar Hero II.   Then I saw a wireless Guitar Hero controller for the PS2, and further realized what I really wanted was something to play with my hands and body.  Something... Wii-ish?

So I fired up the trusty PS2 and am keeping my videogame time filled being a fantasy rock star this week.  I'll still pick up a 360 or PS3 at some point, but I have no doubt that the Wii has changed my expectations about interactivity.  The traditional controller is feeling very "last gen" all of a sudden.



fooflexible said:
CrazzyMan said:

 What bothers me is how extreme most of the views are. We are not even a year into this generation for Sony, and people are already declaring them dead. While on the other hand Crazzyman here predicts the currnet last place company to OWN everything. Why can't people say, Sony is most likely alright because of the power they wield and the franchises they will be bringing to the table, yet, they clearly have displayed a lack of early dominance showed in the last generation, and seems unlikely to see figures even close to it's predeccessor.

Views that stray far from that on either side are rather upsurd, they are the thoughts more of love and hatred then raw logic, and a level head observation of the current market status. While you can be a fanboy and be right, I just want to urge people to ground themselves a little more in the current situation. 

It's quite hard to call Sony dead, when Nintendo was in a worse position with the N64 and they're clearly doing fine now. And it' hards to pretend Sony will kick everyones butts when no one with sales as low as theirs came back to kick anyones butts. I don't mind a degree of optimism or pesimism, but some people are down right crazy(no pun intend...CrazzyMan)


The main reason people are so doubtful on the long term survivability of the PS3 is that when you extrapolate current trends things get pretty ugly for Sony in Japan.

No matter how you track data, and no matter what statistics you use, it is clear that the Nintendo DS has fundamentally changed how the market works in Japan; this change seems to have made the market somewhat unresponsive to the strategy that creates systems like the PS3. There has been dramatic market growth and a shift in consumer tastes which seems to favour rapid growth for the Wii. Hypothetically speaking, if both the Wii and the Nintendo DS are selling in the 150,000 range how much room does that leave for any other platform?



FishyJoe said:
JDWolf36 said:
Think that's a good point that basically the PS3 is not doomed it will most likely not exit the console market it is a failure in the since that it likely will not sell 100-120 million consoles that its predessors did but overall I think you'd have to wait until at least 2009 before you could call the system down and out. I think the main problem with the system right now is that a lot of its potential early adopters are more interested in the Xbox360 lineup this year as opposed to the PS3 it also hasn't exactly been well recieved by the majority of the gaming community it seems. Also yeah a system like the Wii this christmas is going to be a lot easier for I think parents of kids probably 5-18 to swallow getting at 250 and even the xbox360 at 400 than the PS3 at 600 and no that doesn't say anything about the value you get from the PS3 its just the idea that for those gamers with the funding coming from their parents and they are going to be less concerned I think in the most part about all the extras you get as opposed to just the plain and simple price your paying for the current gen system. So basically for this year you've got the older gamers that don't like a system like the Wii possibly leaning more towards a system that has already given them Gears of War and will deliver Halo later on while the other portion of gamers are more leaning towards the Wii. In the end though all this means and all it should mean for PS3 owners or those that desire to own it is that it won't be the best selling system this year and may not have as many games this year but still has a lot of potential for down the road but then again so did a system like the dreamcast so put up with the bashing for now you've had the number one selling system with some of the best games for the last decade.

 Learn to use paragraphs. I didn't even read your message.


You're not the only one, messages like that are little more than a stream of randomness to my eyes...



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

As always, I think there are two issues at play here:

1/ Can Sony recover to some semblance of sales normality?

I think almost certainly they can - whether they will exceed the 360, or how competitive they are - its up to them.

 

2/ Will Sony win this generation?

No. The Wii has already won IMO. You can't release a console, gather this much momentum, and have *everything* in your favour (including the biggie - largest potential customer base) and lose.

...

At best, PS3 vrs Wii will resemble PSP vrs DS.

A worst, PS3 vrs Wii will resemble GC vrs Wii.

(I don't think Sony can do too much worse than the GC...) 



Gesta Non Verba

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windbane said:
 

Don't see how he missed your point. He showed there is no correlation between only looking at 6 months and the ultimate victor. But you can continue to jump to conclusions if you want.

Ubisoft is going to announce a PS3 exclusive. Is that the sign of the exodous? I guess so...

Ah, the top 50...6 Wii games are there last week. 6 out of 50 isn't very significant either. The top game right now is the PSP FFT remake, another "dead" system. Just shows that when (yes, it WILL HAPPEN) games come out that Japanese games want they will get them.

Now, the major weakness of your statements: what evidence suggests that Microsoft could ever hope to pull ahead in Japan? 341 more software sold this week? I guess we should just ignore that despite terrible hardware numbers for the PS3, it outsold the 360 almost 4 to 1. What software will save the 360? Lost Odyssey and...?

It is obvious that the Wii could continue to pull ahead of the PS3 in Japan in the near term, but to suggest that PS3 is hopeless already I just find shortsighted. The PS3 has far more 3rd party support than the N64 had.

 


I love these back and forths.

He didn't show that. He made the claim that you cannot possibly look at past generations to account for the present. If you look at the constants, you CAN.

I'll count 'em with you.

1st generation- The genesis of videogaming so not much of a contest here. Odyssey was 1st but gave way to Atari's PONG in the infancy of the forming business. The rules for engagement hadn't been formed yet. Odyssey was already on its way out by the time Atari PONG got on its way. Odyssey began the console business; Atari brought Scrooge's money bin to the game. Copycats-a-plenty followed but none could overthrow the reigning king of PONG, Atari. The momentum rule is established. Once hearts and minds of public is won the market is yours. And momentum is won in short time evidenced by the trailing sales of Atari's competitors. Atari became known AS videogaming and all other were imitators of the original. Wannabes.

2nd generation- Atari's momentum from its arcades and dedicated PONG consoles set it up for perfect success with the return of interchangeable cartridge gaming (like Odyssey & Channel F) with the Atari Video Computer System BKA the Atari 2600. Ralph Baer, the father of videogaming, wasn't gonna let Atari steal all the glory and put out the Odyssey 2. The first REAL "console war" for market supremacy had begun. Gaming was young and some people had never even seen the Odyssey in those days. But they saw Atari in the poolhalls and bars. Atari was videogaming to most people so momentum collected around Atari leaving Odyssey 2 with the leftovers. This pecking order was set early on with Atari 2600 launching in 1977 and Odyssey 2 launching in 1978. Also a part of this war was 1976's Fairchild Video Entertainment System or Channel F which preceded Atari and spurred Atari to even put together the VCS/2600 coming off of the declining PONG biz with copycats. Atari edged Channel F & its Channel F II redesign out of the market getting stronger and stronger games on their system. Atari hustled with hit games to crush competitors in this first real console face-off. Odyssey 2 did respectable but it couldn't surpass the building momentum of Atari. Space Invaders laid the smack down on the competition.

Atari victorious from this early 2nd gen battle faced off next against the technological monster known as the Mattel Intellivision. The first 16-bit console with beautiful graphics and sound for the time. Wowed people but Atari had the game rights to the big hit games and ended up edging out another competitor on the sales charts. The rule of 'power doesn't win the game' shows itself here.

After holding down that challenger more and more comers came out of the woodwork like the Vectrex & Colecovision jumped aboard with more and more power which Atari matched with the Atari 5200. All these competitors and the glut of games of dwindling quality bloated the market and soon the industry would face a crash that could doom the whole business to extinction.

3rd generation- Out of the ashes came this Japanese company named Nintendo who would soon restore and rewrite the industry in their own image. Old Atari momentum mattered for naught after the first Armageddon of the videogame industry. Nintendo WAS the 3rd generation and now WAS videogaming. The crown had been passed and Atari would continue the long slow descent. Challenger Sega couldn't stop the rapdily-building momentum of Nintendo and with their powerful games and controlling practices they established their empire.

4th generation- Shaken up from monopoly by government Nintendo faces competition from a renewed Sega hungry to topple the new king. Even more powerful machines like NEC's TurboGrafx-16 & Sega's Genesis found themselves in a battle against the old NES. But Sega hustled like no other said they did what Nintendon't and played upon their differences to be Warner Bros. to Nintendo's Disney. Nintendo answered back with the last of the 4th gen level machines with the SNES and for the first time counter momentums faced off. Sega's jumpstarted one and Nintendo's built-up one. In Japan this wasn't the case but everywhere else around the world Sega became a thorn in Nintendo's side. With Sonic and uncensored games they were ready to put the king down. The only time we saw a real contest between consoles and good games as a result. But in the end Sega sabotaged themselves and Nintendo pulled ahead.

5th generation- Sega unaware that it has short-circuited its momentum with the 32X & Sega CD put out the Saturn in short succession further alienating potential buyers. Newcomer Sony plans on paying Nintendo back for reneging on a deal with the Sony Playstation. PS1 goes after Sega for the initial attack and draws blood. Atari Jaguar, 3DO and other systems of that kind were non-factors in the race becoming over shadowed. Nintendo halts its tremendous momentum with ongoing 3rd party bullying and a controversial decision to stay with cartridges instead of moving to CD's. Sony's platform became THE viable alternative and the power structure shifted. Sony WAS NOW videogaming and Nintendo began the long console revenue underdog routine.

6th generation- Sega aborting its Saturn despite its success in Japan soured more players. In a one last chance effort to remain worthy as a player in the consolemaker's biz they put out the Dreamcast. All other minor players had faded from the scene by now and the competition became few. Sega was reversing its negative momentum while Sony was riding a wave of positive momentum. They launched their PS2 about a year later vampiring all the buzz the Dreamcast had built up in the time headed to launch. By the time the PS2 launched in USA Sega was on verge of exiting the game console biz. Mistakes of the past with money issues reduced the player who challenged the almighty Nintendo to just a publisher/developer. Sony ran unchallenged for virtual a year and a half cementing that momentous dominance. Challengers came too late. Newcomer Microsoft and its emerald onyx of power, the XBox, and negative momentum fighting Nintendo with its Gamecube. Like Atari way back when the rest were Johnny-Come-Latelies compared to the original games-king.

7th generation- Nintendo jumpstarts new momentum with revolutionary ideas. Sony began to see the shift in the handheld fight with their PSP going against Nintendo's DS. They found that it was more to Nintendo's dominance of the field than mere momentum even though that was on the factor. Microsoft built up a small buzz late in 6th generation that they sought to capitalize on with the early-launching XBox 360. Sony seeing a system marking it in its sights (360) and an oddball direction from this old thought-to-be-vanquished foe Sony goes into overdrive for their next console, the PS3. Arrogance has claimed another console champ and they don't see their decision sabotaging their direction. Now we have Wii's revolution restoring momentum to Nintendo's side on its way to dominance, XBox 360 becoming a solid system for a most gamebuyers, and PS3 under a cloud of doom.

Each generation showed a system early on capturing the imaginations of the buying public and capitalizing on it becoming the gen's leader. The generations show short-sightedness by winning company causing its downfall or eviction in some cases from the market. And we saw a clear gen winner by far each time. Only with 4th gen having an actual contest for certain regions like USA. We saw carried momentum and fresh-brewed momentum set the pecking order in the races. We saw fatal mistakes ruining companies' stake in this business.

Details are different but theme remains the same. History CAN show you the present. What a gift that will be!

John Lucas 



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

after seeing NPD result, should there be a new thread: US PS3 Nightmare?



Coming soon, Europe PS3 Nightmare.



People keep comparing the PS3 to the likes of the Gamecube and the N-64 etc. and using this to argue that the "PS3 is gonna be ok." No. That's not a good arguement. Nintendo is a self sufficent company. Nintendo needs no one else. Having 3rd parties making great games on a Nintendo system is great, but Nintendo does not NEED them. They make many of their own games and that is enough to have a userbase. They sell their consoles for a profit from the get-go. Sony is a 3rd party dependent company. They throw away their consoles for a loss to get a large userbase. The 3rd parties follow the largest userbase. This is why Sony and 3rd parties have worked so well together in the past. The problem is that the PS3 will not have 3rd party support. Your arguement:"Well the N-64 and Gamecube didn't have a lot of market share, so if the PS3 has the same market share, they'll survive just like N64 and Gamecube did!" No. It doesn't work like that. Sony is already losing tons of money per PS3 they sell. (This brings another point. A PS3 price drop is FARRRRRR OFFFF. They are already losing an absurd amount of money per PS3. Anymore so and it would just be.... ridiculous?) Anyways, they are losing money from their hardware, and they are NOT getting the software to bring that money back. Nintendo had a bunch of their own great games, and when they sold, they made 100% of the profit. Marketshare is just something us fanboys squabble over on internet forums. I'm sure the bigwigs at Nintendo didn't mind that the Gamecube had like 15% of the marketshare that the PS2 did - the Gamecube was bringing in the profits. What's important to a business is PROFIT. Sony is losing the userbase, which in turn is losing the 3rd parties. They are only making a small percentage of income off of 3rd party games (compared to Nintendos 100% profit from first party games). Nintendo could survive without the 3rd parties. Sony cannot. Sony's business strategy DEPENDS on 3rd parties. Please don't compare the marketshare of the PS3 to the marketshare of the GC/N64. Marketshare is insignificant to profits.



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Avalach21 said:
People keep comparing the PS3 to the likes of the Gamecube and the N-64 etc. and using this to argue that the "PS3 is gonna be ok." No. That's not a good arguement. Nintendo is a self sufficent company. Nintendo needs no one else. Having 3rd parties making great games on a Nintendo system is great, but Nintendo does not NEED them. They make many of their own games and that is enough to have a userbase. They sell their consoles for a profit from the get-go. Sony is a 3rd party dependent company. They throw away their consoles for a loss to get a large userbase. The 3rd parties follow the largest userbase. This is why Sony and 3rd parties have worked so well together in the past. The problem is that the PS3 will not have 3rd party support. Your arguement:"Well the N-64 and Gamecube didn't have a lot of market share, so if the PS3 has the same market share, they'll survive just like N64 and Gamecube did!" No. It doesn't work like that. Sony is already losing tons of money per PS3 they sell. (This brings another point. A PS3 price drop is FARRRRRR OFFFF. They are already losing an absurd amount of money per PS3. Anymore so and it would just be.... ridiculous?) Anyways, they are losing money from their hardware, and they are NOT getting the software to bring that money back. Nintendo had a bunch of their own great games, and when they sold, they made 100% of the profit. Marketshare is just something us fanboys squabble over on internet forums. I'm sure the bigwigs at Nintendo didn't mind that the Gamecube had like 15% of the marketshare that the PS2 did - the Gamecube was bringing in the profits. What's important to a business is PROFIT. Sony is losing the userbase, which in turn is losing the 3rd parties. They are only making a small percentage of income off of 3rd party games (compared to Nintendos 100% profit from first party games). Nintendo could survive without the 3rd parties. Sony cannot. Sony's business strategy DEPENDS on 3rd parties. Please don't compare the marketshare of the PS3 to the marketshare of the GC/N64. Marketshare is insignificant to profits.

to illustrate this point, the Gamecube and the Xbox sold about the same amount. While the Gamecube brought in some money for Nintendo, the Xbox lost Microsoft billions.

same numbers != same success 

 



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