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Forums - Sales Discussion - What kind of impact will Forza 2 have in Japan?

your mother said:
rocketpig said:
larry said:

GTHD looks miles better than FORZA 2.

it would sell around 10 000 copies at best.

what a dreamer????????????????

30 000 copies of a game that is on x360 and looks like a ps2 game graphically.

there would be no impact on hardware sales for x360.

others ,note NGS and MK are both coming on ps3 in june.

so expect a big jump on the other side of the tunnel.


Ah, so Larry finally chimed in with his expert opinion.

You've obviously never played Forza 2. I have. The graphics are nothing like anything on the PS2, and I own one. I've played all the GT games. Forza 2 is loads better.

And comparing GTHD is a joke. It's one car, one track, no AI, no physics, no damage. It's not hard to make a game like that look pretty. Add in 8 cars, damage, MUCH better physics and you have to cut down on those pretty visuals a bit.

Could Forza look better? Yeah, it could. But Turn 10 decided to lock the physics engine at 360 fps and the visuals at 60 fps. They made a decision to make sure gameplay is solid at the sacrifice of graphics.

...

I don't even know why I'm arguing with you. You're never right about anything.

Really? Do you have a link to that or is that a typo? Just curious (and not doubting you) - I've never heard of locking the frame rate for a physics engine, but it can make sense (although it kinda defeats the purpose of locking the visual frame rate, but that's another topic really).

 

Physics engines are generally locked at a particular "frame rate". I've done some programming with Open Dynamics Engine, and I've found nasty things happen when you don't lock the physics engine at a particular rate. The basic idea is that a physics engine will work out the forces on a particular object, and then work out their accelleration, from that work out their velocity (based on their previous accelleration and the timestep) and then work out their position based on the velocity and their previous position. The accelleration is only applied at one point and the velocity is the same for the entire timestep.

Therefore a large timestep will mean that a large accelleration applied over a short time (such as being hit with a baseball bat) will be stretched over the entire time period, causing a disproportionate amount of accelleration. So not only does fixing the timestep make sense (otherwise the physics behaves differently when there are more items on the screen, definitely not something that we want), but also a small timestep will see a benifit even when the graphics are locked into a much lower framerate. Basically, smaller timesteps will mean much smoother curves for velocity, accelleration, and displacement, and much more realistic movement.

As for the 360 steps per second number, I have no idea where that comes from

@larry: thank you for saying that Forza won't even make 10k in Japan. This means it will be the first of your completely ridiculous predictions that will be proven false. Can't wait for the numbers!

 



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

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rocketpig said:
ckmlb said:
Very little impact, less than Blue Dragon.

Considering that when speaking in percentages, Blue Dragon had a large impact on 360 sales, that's a pretty vague statement. Here's the charts... I'm sure you can figure out when Blue Dragon launched for the 360.

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=XB&reg1=Japan&cons2=X360&reg2=Japan&cons3=XB&reg3=Japan&align=1

Before Blue Dragon, the 360 was moving about 1k a week in Japan. It was completely dead in the water. Now it's merely on life support.


 Big for 360 sales but in the larger scheme of things a small impact and this one will have a smaller one...



Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!

omgwtfbbq said:

Physics engines are generally locked at a particular "frame rate". I've done some programming with Open Dynamics Engine, and I've found nasty things happen when you don't lock the physics engine at a particular rate. The basic idea is that a physics engine will work out the forces on a particular object, and then work out their accelleration, from that work out their velocity (based on their previous accelleration and the timestep) and then work out their position based on the velocity and their previous position. The accelleration is only applied at one point and the velocity is the same for the entire timestep.

Therefore a large timestep will mean that a large accelleration applied over a short time (such as being hit with a baseball bat) will be stretched over the entire time period, causing a disproportionate amount of accelleration. So not only does fixing the timestep make sense (otherwise the physics behaves differently when there are more items on the screen, definitely not something that we want), but also a small timestep will see a benifit even when the graphics are locked into a much lower framerate. Basically, smaller timesteps will mean much smoother curves for velocity, accelleration, and displacement, and much more realistic movement.

As for the 360 steps per second number, I have no idea where that comes from

@larry: thank you for saying that Forza won't even make 10k in Japan. This means it will be the first of your completely ridiculous predictions that will be proven false. Can't wait for the numbers!

 

Thanks for the explanation. I wasn't sure about it but I remembered reading it was locked at 360fps.

BTW, it's been repeated several times by Turn 10 that the physics engine is running at 360fps. They felt it was necessary since the speeds will be so high at tracks like Nurburgring, anything less would mean that your car was travelling too far in between physics cycles.

Here's one example where they state the 360fps claim:

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/766/766507p1.html




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rocketpig said:
omgwtfbbq said:

Physics engines are generally locked at a particular "frame rate". I've done some programming with Open Dynamics Engine, and I've found nasty things happen when you don't lock the physics engine at a particular rate. The basic idea is that a physics engine will work out the forces on a particular object, and then work out their accelleration, from that work out their velocity (based on their previous accelleration and the timestep) and then work out their position based on the velocity and their previous position. The accelleration is only applied at one point and the velocity is the same for the entire timestep.

Therefore a large timestep will mean that a large accelleration applied over a short time (such as being hit with a baseball bat) will be stretched over the entire time period, causing a disproportionate amount of accelleration. So not only does fixing the timestep make sense (otherwise the physics behaves differently when there are more items on the screen, definitely not something that we want), but also a small timestep will see a benifit even when the graphics are locked into a much lower framerate. Basically, smaller timesteps will mean much smoother curves for velocity, accelleration, and displacement, and much more realistic movement.

As for the 360 steps per second number, I have no idea where that comes from

@larry: thank you for saying that Forza won't even make 10k in Japan. This means it will be the first of your completely ridiculous predictions that will be proven false. Can't wait for the numbers!

Thanks for the explanation. I wasn't sure about it but I remembered reading it was locked at 360fps.

BTW, it's been repeated several times by Turn 10 that the physics engine is running at 360fps. They felt it was necessary since the speeds will be so high at tracks like Nuremburgring, anything less would mean that your car was travelling too far in between physics cycles.

Here's one example where they state the 360fps claim:

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/766/766507p1.html

OK, the explanation was pretty self-explanatory, and the article states 360 refreshese per second, which makes enough sense. Thanks for the explanation and link.

What I can't understand is the following: If the physics is refreshed 360 times per second to make the simulation more subtle and realistic, the output (feedback) is still rated at 60fps, because that is what the visuals refresh at.

In other words, even though physics-wise you get 6x the refresh rate than that of the visuals, you can only react to what you see onscreen, so your response time cannot be anywhere close to 360x per second, and should be lower than 60x per second.

?



Forza is going to have little to no impact and sell 10-40k.



currently playing: Skyward Sword, Mario Sunshine, Xenoblade Chronicles X

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your mother said:
rocketpig said:
omgwtfbbq said:

Physics engines are generally locked at a particular "frame rate". I've done some programming with Open Dynamics Engine, and I've found nasty things happen when you don't lock the physics engine at a particular rate. The basic idea is that a physics engine will work out the forces on a particular object, and then work out their accelleration, from that work out their velocity (based on their previous accelleration and the timestep) and then work out their position based on the velocity and their previous position. The accelleration is only applied at one point and the velocity is the same for the entire timestep.

Therefore a large timestep will mean that a large accelleration applied over a short time (such as being hit with a baseball bat) will be stretched over the entire time period, causing a disproportionate amount of accelleration. So not only does fixing the timestep make sense (otherwise the physics behaves differently when there are more items on the screen, definitely not something that we want), but also a small timestep will see a benifit even when the graphics are locked into a much lower framerate. Basically, smaller timesteps will mean much smoother curves for velocity, accelleration, and displacement, and much more realistic movement.

As for the 360 steps per second number, I have no idea where that comes from

@larry: thank you for saying that Forza won't even make 10k in Japan. This means it will be the first of your completely ridiculous predictions that will be proven false. Can't wait for the numbers!

Thanks for the explanation. I wasn't sure about it but I remembered reading it was locked at 360fps.

BTW, it's been repeated several times by Turn 10 that the physics engine is running at 360fps. They felt it was necessary since the speeds will be so high at tracks like Nuremburgring, anything less would mean that your car was travelling too far in between physics cycles.

Here's one example where they state the 360fps claim:

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/766/766507p1.html

OK, the explanation was pretty self-explanatory, and the article states 360 refreshese per second, which makes enough sense. Thanks for the explanation and link.

What I can't understand is the following: If the physics is refreshed 360 times per second to make the simulation more subtle and realistic, the output (feedback) is still rated at 60fps, because that is what the visuals refresh at.

In other words, even though physics-wise you get 6x the refresh rate than that of the visuals, you can only react to what you see onscreen, so your response time cannot be anywhere close to 360x per second, and should be lower than 60x per second.

?

yes there is still a difference, because the movement will follow realism more closely.

imagine someone throws a ball, the movement of the ball follows a parabola (assuming no air resistance)

now imagine that instead of a smooth parabola, it follows a straight line at the tangent of the parabola for a small amount, then another straight line, and so on. This is how the simulation works. Obviously in this case, the ball won't land in the same place, the path of the ball will only be an approximation to the actual ball's path.

Now if you make the lines 1/6 as long, but only draw to the screen every sixth position, although the ball will move the same speed and it will look the same, the ball will actually be following a different (more accurate) path.

that's why the speed of the simulation is important even if not every frame is drawn.



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

Im wondering how many days it'll take before I ban Larry. 1 week? Maybe a Prediction League game will be in order. At any rate, there are alot of valid opinions on sales for the game. IMO, famitsu giving a western game all 9s, is great. Famitsu giving it 9s could help the game out a bit, IF the Japanese will buy into it being a good game. Despite this, Forza 2 should have no problems garnering 2m+ sales worldwide, or more.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

ckmlb said:
rocketpig said:
ckmlb said:
Very little impact, less than Blue Dragon.

Considering that when speaking in percentages, Blue Dragon had a large impact on 360 sales, that's a pretty vague statement. Here's the charts... I'm sure you can figure out when Blue Dragon launched for the 360.

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=XB®1=Japan&cons2=X360®2=Japan&cons3=XB®3=Japan&align=1

Before Blue Dragon, the 360 was moving about 1k a week in Japan. It was completely dead in the water. Now it's merely on life support.


 Big for 360 sales but in the larger scheme of things a small impact and this one will have a smaller one...


Everyone keeps saying the Blue Dragon sales are nothing to be impressed about but between the PS3 and the 360, Blue Dragon is 2nd in sales only to Gundam Musou.

 

Side note for Wii Fans - yeah, I know that those sales are nothing compared to Wii software sales.

Edit: 150k in Japan in the first 2 weeks!!!



Proud Member of GAIBoWS (Gamers Against Irrational Bans of Weezy & Squilliam)

                   

mrstickball said:
Im wondering how many days it'll take before I ban Larry. 1 week? Maybe a Prediction League game will be in order.

 we should add that to prediction league. forum prediction league. guess who will be banned next and when... 



Help! I'm stuck in a forum signature!

your mother said:
konnichiwa said:
your mother said:
konnichiwa said:
SpaceJase said:
your mother, If there's one thing we've learned in the past 6 months it's that there is no such thing as brand loyalty in Japan, otherwise the PS3 would be doing swimmingly.

@Your mother 'SpaceJase' is right about that.


@both:

Agreed. My comment about loyalty was more referring to Legend11's post about the Japanese and their brand loyalty towards Japanese consoles, but yeah, it's a narrow window, but Microsoft may be able to pull up to the PS3 (inversely, the PS3 may dwindle to 360 sales numbers in Japan).

I should've reworded it as SpaceJase said: "They are both clearly on the wrong side of Japanese gaming trends though. " That says it very well IMO.


I guess in Japan their is no thing like being loyal to a console = fanboy I think the japanese are more loyal to their country. X360 is an American console with good Japanese games on it if PS3 would have those games the sales would skyrock to heaven.

It is just a thought but in fact I never heard something like Japanese nintendo and sony fanboys.

What I've never heard of a Japanese Xbox fanboy!


 Haha XD;