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Forums - Sales Discussion - What kind of impact will Forza 2 have in Japan?

SpaceJase on 16 May 2007
mrstickball said:

Sim racers are pretty friggin' big in Japan.

The GT series is pretty big over there. Ridge Racer 7 has sold around 125k units on the PS3. RR6 on 360 has sold 72.8k, and is the 3rd highest selling 360 game in Japan. There are alot of factors that make it very difficult to predict where Forza 2 will end up.

Factor 1: Forza 1 didn't have alot of exposure in Japan. This can translate into a meaningless brand name (but for that matter, BD didnt have a brand associated with it, nor Dead Rising, or half of the major selling 360 games).

Factor 2: There are no major racing games to compete with. Motorstorm is long gone and dead, and so is RR7 for PS3. With no racers coming up, Forza could fill a huge void. Only TDU is the most recent racer out there.

Factor 3: This game is the finest racing sim ever created (ever play Forza 1? Far better than GT). If Famitsu gave it a 36/40, thats pretty dang good.

Factor 4: With Trusty Bell coming out merely 2 weeks afterwards, with quite a few projected new adopters for the 360, they could pick up Forza 2 as well.

Forza is a TOTAL toss-up. One one hand, it could do as low as 40k. On the other, it could nearly topple, or beat BD due to the obvious lack of next-gen racers. TDU is upto 20k, and that's a friggin' budget title (incredibly good game tho).

Range given: 40k (10% chance) upto 250k (10% chance). I'll go ahead and say 95k based on the following factors: The game will launch with sales of 52.5k or so O/W, drop to around 20k the week after. When TB launches, it will manage to hover in the 5-10k area for awhile. It's anyones guess as to how it sells systems. I'll put Forza in the "major system seller" catagory of which N3, Dead Rising, DOAX2 and DOA4 were in. It will move around 15k systems over it's lifetime. 7k first week (nearly beating, or even beating the PS3), then maybe 6k next week before TB takes over. But again, it could be the "thing" like the BD/LP combo we had in Christmas, and manage to move 50k-100k systems along with TB, or better. It's possible. It's also possible the sales only spike to 3,750 units too.


Okay, first off Ridge Racer is about as far away from a sim as you can get!
  1. Factor 1: A meaningless brand name that hasn't changed.
  2. Factors 2 and 3: you make a good point so long as the appetite is still there in Japan - I guess there must be enough of a market to at least drive the 360 sales up by a few thousand.
You reckon 95K for Forza 2 in Japan? That would be relatively respectable, we shall have to wait and see.

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gebx on 16 May 2007

Forza 2 - 150k in Japan in the first 2 weeks.



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Bodhesatva on 16 May 2007
rocketpig said:
ckmlb said:
Very little impact, less than Blue Dragon.

Considering that when speaking in percentages, Blue Dragon had a large impact on 360 sales, that's a pretty vague statement. Here's the charts... I'm sure you can figure out when Blue Dragon launched for the 360.

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=XB&reg1=Japan&cons2=X360&reg2=Japan&cons3=XB&reg3=Japan&align=1

Before Blue Dragon, the 360 was moving about 1k a week in Japan. It was completely dead in the water. Now it's merely on life support


I have seriously never seen a system chart like that. I'm aware we're talking percentages -- that in terms of consoles sold, I'm sure some systems have seen more dramatic upswings simply because they were dealing in the millions or even tens of millions instead of in the hundred thousands -- but I highly doubt that any single game has ever produced a more dramatic and visible upswing in system sales. Seriously, ever, for any market. Can anyone find a graph on the site that shows a more dramatic effect than that?



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

konnichiwa on 16 May 2007
rocketpig said:
Wait, let me change that console estimate: I predict that MS will sell 16k units in the TWO weeks after Forza hits. The third week is Trusty Bell. That will blow up the 360.

 I am not sure about it but Trusty bell will release also on PS3.






your mother on 16 May 2007
SpaceJase said:
mrstickball said:

Sim racers are pretty friggin' big in Japan.

The GT series is pretty big over there. Ridge Racer 7 has sold around 125k units on the PS3. RR6 on 360 has sold 72.8k, and is the 3rd highest selling 360 game in Japan. There are alot of factors that make it very difficult to predict where Forza 2 will end up.

Factor 1: Forza 1 didn't have alot of exposure in Japan. This can translate into a meaningless brand name (but for that matter, BD didnt have a brand associated with it, nor Dead Rising, or half of the major selling 360 games).

Factor 2: There are no major racing games to compete with. Motorstorm is long gone and dead, and so is RR7 for PS3. With no racers coming up, Forza could fill a huge void. Only TDU is the most recent racer out there.

Factor 3: This game is the finest racing sim ever created (ever play Forza 1? Far better than GT). If Famitsu gave it a 36/40, thats pretty dang good.

Factor 4: With Trusty Bell coming out merely 2 weeks afterwards, with quite a few projected new adopters for the 360, they could pick up Forza 2 as well.

Forza is a TOTAL toss-up. One one hand, it could do as low as 40k. On the other, it could nearly topple, or beat BD due to the obvious lack of next-gen racers. TDU is upto 20k, and that's a friggin' budget title (incredibly good game tho).

Range given: 40k (10% chance) upto 250k (10% chance). I'll go ahead and say 95k based on the following factors: The game will launch with sales of 52.5k or so O/W, drop to around 20k the week after. When TB launches, it will manage to hover in the 5-10k area for awhile. It's anyones guess as to how it sells systems. I'll put Forza in the "major system seller" catagory of which N3, Dead Rising, DOAX2 and DOA4 were in. It will move around 15k systems over it's lifetime. 7k first week (nearly beating, or even beating the PS3), then maybe 6k next week before TB takes over. But again, it could be the "thing" like the BD/LP combo we had in Christmas, and manage to move 50k-100k systems along with TB, or better. It's possible. It's also possible the sales only spike to 3,750 units too.


Okay, first off Ridge Racer is about as far away from a sim as you can get!
  1. Factor 1: A meaningless brand name that hasn't changed.
  2. Factors 2 and 3: you make a good point so long as the appetite is still there in Japan - I guess there must be enough of a market to at least drive the 360 sales up by a few thousand.
You reckon 95K for Forza 2 in Japan? That would be relatively respectable, we shall have to wait and see.

 Honestly, anyone who also considers Gran Turismo a racing sim has never ever driven a car.



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Bodhesatva on 16 May 2007
konnichiwa said:
rocketpig said:
Wait, let me change that console estimate: I predict that MS will sell 16k units in the TWO weeks after Forza hits. The third week is Trusty Bell. That will blow up the 360.

I am not sure about it but Trusty bell will release also on PS3.


 Still listed here: http://www.gamingtarget.com/article.php?artid=6876 as an XBox360 exclusive (the Japanese name is now Eternal Sonata). Do you have evidence of this? 



http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a324/Arkives/Disccopy.jpg%5B/IMG%5D">

rocketpig on 16 May 2007
konnichiwa said:
rocketpig said:
Wait, let me change that console estimate: I predict that MS will sell 16k units in the TWO weeks after Forza hits. The third week is Trusty Bell. That will blow up the 360.

 I am not sure about it but Trusty bell will release also on PS3.


It was rumored awhile back but nothing has come of it. They haven't even announced a PS3 version and the game releases in less than a month. Namco wouldn't kill their sales like that. They won't announce a PS3 version for at least a few months, if at all.




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DKII on 16 May 2007

I think even if Forza 2 sells well in Japan it'll mostly be to the current 360 owners and won't push much hardware, racers just aren't that kind of killer app imo.



konnichiwa on 16 May 2007
Bodhesatva said:
konnichiwa said:
rocketpig said:
Wait, let me change that console estimate: I predict that MS will sell 16k units in the TWO weeks after Forza hits. The third week is Trusty Bell. That will blow up the 360.

I am not sure about it but Trusty bell will release also on PS3.


 Still listed here: http://www.gamingtarget.com/article.php?artid=6876 as an XBox360 exclusive (the Japanese name is now Eternal Sonata). Do you have evidence of this? 


Oh on gametrailers it was stated like this:  Platforms: X360/PS3.

 When I search for it now it is stated like this: Platforms X360.

 Sorry my bet ^^''

In fact I am not up to date about this game I only downloaded the trailer last week and it was stated like that it was

not exlcusive.

 

 






konnichiwa on 16 May 2007
rocketpig said:
konnichiwa said:
rocketpig said:
Wait, let me change that console estimate: I predict that MS will sell 16k units in the TWO weeks after Forza hits. The third week is Trusty Bell. That will blow up the 360.

 I am not sure about it but Trusty bell will release also on PS3.


It was rumored awhile back but nothing has come of it. They haven't even announced a PS3 version and the game releases in less than a month. Namco wouldn't kill their sales like that. They won't announce a PS3 version for at least a few months, if at all.


 Okay if you say so, maybe a Timed exclusive? in fact I don't care about this lol.

I just thought it was multiplatform my bet again.