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Forums - Sales - The Console Industry is DOOOOOOMMMEEDDDD!!!!

Jumpin said:
tokilamockingbrd said:

I see people making statements like "The Playstation Brand is Shrinking" and references to how even though the PS4 is doing well compared to the XB1 and WiiU sales are way down this gen. That is true, hardware sales are down there are plenty of reasons for that, but it does not mean console gaming is dying. In fact I believe in the end the lower sales will not have too bad of an effect on the health of home consoles and gaming in general.

I am going to list a two huge reasons why console sales are down. They are just based on common sense and most of you already know this.

1. The Wii. This is too obvious. Last gen, Nintendo worked a miracle and had people in the nursing home bowling on the Wii. They had people who did not give a shit about gaming getting caught up in the hype and buy one. It sold some software too, Nintendo made a ton of money. WiiFit, WiiSports, Mario Kart, and the rest all benefitted fromt he userbase. No one else did really unless they were making Cooking Mama 6. (Activision with Guitar Hero was the big exception early in the GEN).    Now, Grandma who was in the nursing home is dead. Those people who did not care about gaming still dont and the Wii is in a closet somewhere. A huge chunk of those lost sales are the difference between the Wii and the Wii U, and Nintendo is left holding the bag. They tried to go after the same audience, but that audience had moved on to the next big thing.

2. This is the 1st GEN since GEN freaking 4 that people are not buying consoles as an alternative to another media device. Back in 1995 the Playstation doubling as a CD player was a big deal. PS2 being a DVD player (cheaper than a standalone DVD for a few years) sold a ton of them, and most recently PS3 had the same scenario with blu-ray.  There is no logical reason to buy and XB1 or a PS4 unless you are interested in games, most of the media services offered (Netflix, Hulu, etc) can be had with most modern TVs or a 40 dollar blu-ray player.

In my opinion neither of these major reasons why hardware is down hurts gaming in the long run, software sales are excellant. Sony saw this trend coming, they saw this GEN was going to be about games and are reaping the benefits, MS tried to continue with Kinect 2 and it set them back but they have recovered very nicely and have clearly adopted an "Its about the games stupid" approach. Attach rates are through the roof.

Another reason I feel good about where gaming is heading is the resurgence of genres that aren't FPS. Maybe its in my head but I feel the variety of games we are getting this GEN of the AAA quality is just wonderful. I think a prime example with GG's Zero Horizon, we have a studio doing nothing but FPS for close to a decade getting greenlit for a huge budget ARPG. You have MS and Sony using games likes Tomb Raider, Final Fantasy, Dark Souls, Shenmue as the big draw to their system, is it just me or does that list send you back in time to the year 2000 or what.

Oh ya and PC gaming is thriving as well.


Do you have any evidence to support either claim? I call bullshit on both.

um..... both of my points are common knowledge. If you dont agree with them you obviously were not around, or paying attention. Google cost of DVD player in 2001, google cost of Blu-ray in 06... then check launch prices.



psn- tokila

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I think the overall problem is people assume last gen saw large increase in users. It most likely saw a mild increase in users. There's probably far more multi console owners last gen than any previous gens. I mean, in the ps2 era, there's 150 million PS2s. Assuming every Gamecube and Xbox owners bought a PS2 (May or may not be the case), that leaves 100 unique gamers (Ignoring multi ps2 purchases, etc, as those are with every gen including the 360.). Can the same be said last gen? I'm sure the console market did grow last gen, but not the amount people think and we're seeing what the true market is now.



Sharu said:
GameMasterPC said:

Compared to 7th gen yes but you are saying it won't eevn sell as well as 5th gen consoles which looks unlikely. PlayStation Vue, Hololens and Project Morpheus might actually expand it even more.

My estimations for this gen are around 150 total maximum. (100 PS4+32X1+18WiiU). More realistical should be 130m. (80+30+20)
I'm amazed that people so sure that VR devices will expand the industry. Its expensive gadgets for geeks, technology fans which will be bigger flop then 3D TVs.


I'd love to see the reasoning behind your XBO numbers, especially in relation to your Wii U numbers.



GameMasterPC said:
Sharu said:

Well, for WiiU+X1 is around 50 mln for me. It can be 20+30 if Nintendo will get some sales (which is unlikely, but who knows?). Or it can be 15+35 in other case. 
And if you sure that during 5 years of its lifespan PS4 will sell more than 100 millions - you're just fooling yourself. We can make a bet on it if you want. 

Why does it have to be 50 million? It looks like you just picked a sales number and decided that these two combined are only going to sell that much. That's random and inaccurate. They could sell 60 or 80 million units combined. I think XB1 would sell over 50 million units.

And how does my PS4 sales estimate considered fooling? It looks like PS4 will sell that much not in 5 years but lifetime.

Not going to happen, XB1 will be lucky if will sell 40 million...



Ryng_Tolu said:
GameMasterPC said:
Sharu said:

Well, for WiiU+X1 is around 50 mln for me. It can be 20+30 if Nintendo will get some sales (which is unlikely, but who knows?). Or it can be 15+35 in other case. 
And if you sure that during 5 years of its lifespan PS4 will sell more than 100 millions - you're just fooling yourself. We can make a bet on it if you want. 

Why does it have to be 50 million? It looks like you just picked a sales number and decided that these two combined are only going to sell that much. That's random and inaccurate. They could sell 60 or 80 million units combined. I think XB1 would sell over 50 million units.

And how does my PS4 sales estimate considered fooling? It looks like PS4 will sell that much not in 5 years but lifetime.

Not going to happen, XB1 will be lucky if will sell 40 million...

I don't think so.



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Home consoles aren't going to die out just like that, but the market is definitely shrinking



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Consoles aren't as up to snuff as they were back then, but I don't think they're gonna completely disappear.



"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."

Platina said:
Home consoles aren't going to die out just like that, but the market is definitely shrinking

Hardware market is shrinking. Software is healthy.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut