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Forums - Sales - The Console Industry is DOOOOOOMMMEEDDDD!!!!

GameMasterPC said:
Sharu said:

Well, for WiiU+X1 is around 50 mln for me. It can be 20+30 if Nintendo will get some sales (which is unlikely, but who knows?). Or it can be 15+35 in other case. 
And if you sure that during 5 years of its lifespan PS4 will sell more than 100 millions - you're just fooling yourself. We can make a bet on it if you want. 

Why does it have to be 50 million? It looks like you just picked a sales number and decided that these two combined are only going to sell that much. That's random and inaccurate. They could sell 60 or 80 million units combined. I think XB1 would sell over 50 million units.

And how does my PS4 sales estimate considered fooling? It looks like PS4 will sell that much not in 5 years but lifetime.

You have your opinion. I have mine. Its perfectly fine to have different opinions. 
LT sales are hard thing for bets since losing side can always say that the LT sales are not here YET. So if soeaking about some bets I'd prefer to have some fixed date of finishing it. But if you're not sure enough in your position and not ready for some betting - its also perfectly fine.



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Sharu said:
GameMasterPC said:

Why does it have to be 50 million? It looks like you just picked a sales number and decided that these two combined are only going to sell that much. That's random and inaccurate. They could sell 60 or 80 million units combined. I think XB1 would sell over 50 million units.

And how does my PS4 sales estimate considered fooling? It looks like PS4 will sell that much not in 5 years but lifetime.

You have your opinion. I have mine. Its perfectly fine to have different opinions. 
LT sales are hard thing for bets since losing side can always say that the LT sales are not here YET. So if soeaking about some bets I'd prefer to have some fixed date of finishing it. But if you're not sure enough in your position and not ready for some betting - its also perfectly fine.

This is not about opinion. Picking some random sales number for XB1 + Wii U sounds unreasonable. We know XB1 will do very well this fall and next fall and Microsoft would bring better deal for it.

I consider LT sales to be the sales ofa  product till its discontinued. PS2 didn't sell 150 million in 6 years. PS4 won't sell 100 million in 5 years. But I'm sure it will sell more than that LT. I'm not gonna go fora  bet which would last for many years. I don't know if I would even remember it or care for it that long.



GameMasterPC said:
Sharu said:

You have your opinion. I have mine. Its perfectly fine to have different opinions. 
LT sales are hard thing for bets since losing side can always say that the LT sales are not here YET. So if soeaking about some bets I'd prefer to have some fixed date of finishing it. But if you're not sure enough in your position and not ready for some betting - its also perfectly fine.

This is not about opinion. Picking some random sales number for XB1 + Wii U sounds unreasonable. We know XB1 will do very well this fall and next fall and Microsoft would bring better deal for it.

I consider LT sales to be the sales ofa  product till its discontinued. PS2 didn't sell 150 million in 6 years. PS4 won't sell 100 million in 5 years. But I'm sure it will sell more than that LT. I'm not gonna go fora  bet which would last for many years. I don't know if I would even remember it or care for it that long.

OK! Thanks for your clear position! In the end of our talks I just like to add that I'm still very pessimistic about this gen and about the future of gaming industry in general. I'd like to be optimistic on it but I just can't. 



Sharu said:
GameMasterPC said:

Compared to 7th gen yes but you are saying it won't eevn sell as well as 5th gen consoles which looks unlikely. PlayStation Vue, Hololens and Project Morpheus might actually expand it even more.

My estimations for this gen are around 150 total maximum. (100 PS4+32X1+18WiiU). More realistical should be 130m. (80+30+20)
I'm amazed that people so sure that VR devices will expand the industry. Its expensive gadgets for geeks, technology fans which will be bigger flop then 3D TVs.

I am amused that you think VR is an expensive gadget for geeks and technology fans. I have seen more hate from gamers over VR than anywhere else. VR is a huge deal for nearly every single thing in life. VR is a world changer. The way people learn, the way we train, the way we practice, the way we view, the way we observe, and the way we play are all elevating to a new level with this tech. 

VR is not just about games, it is so much more, and everyone involved is welcoming any and every form of VR software. Once everybody gets to try on Oculus and Morpheus, the momentum is going to be unstopable. It is something that many are not going to be able to understand untell they try it for themselves, this is the next gereation of technology.



Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

Kevyn B Grams
10/03/2010 

KBG29 on PSN&XBL

Sharu said:
GameMasterPC said:

This is not about opinion. Picking some random sales number for XB1 + Wii U sounds unreasonable. We know XB1 will do very well this fall and next fall and Microsoft would bring better deal for it.

I consider LT sales to be the sales ofa  product till its discontinued. PS2 didn't sell 150 million in 6 years. PS4 won't sell 100 million in 5 years. But I'm sure it will sell more than that LT. I'm not gonna go fora  bet which would last for many years. I don't know if I would even remember it or care for it that long.

OK! Thanks for your clear position! In the end of our talks I just like to add that I'm still very pessimistic about this gen and about the future of gaming industry in general. I'd like to be optimistic on it but I just can't. 

You're being way too pessimistic about PS4 and XB1. PS4 is selling well at $400 since launch without price cut and Sony hasn't released one of their big 3 games on it.

XB1 I can understand your pessimism but its still selling well and Microsoft haven't released 2 of their 3 big games.

Third-party developers have yet to go fully current-gen as many are still making cross-gen games. So if they are selling so well with mostly cross-gen games  I believe sales will be a lot more when they start getting current-gen exclusive games and come down to mass market price levels.

If you ask me there is nothing to worry about the industry as a whole. PC gaming is expanding, PS4 is doing much better than PS3 and XB1 is doing better than 360. Nintendo is the only one who needs to worry right now. Gaming as a whole is expanding in new markets and its evolving and changing from the past but its not dying.



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I don't think we're looking at a crash. We're looking at a return to gen 6 levels. Possibly a return to gen 5 at worst. Gaming will grow steadily without the Wii crazies on board instead of the crazy growth we saw last gen.



I am Iron Man

tokilamockingbrd said:

I see people making statements like "The Playstation Brand is Shrinking" and references to how even though the PS4 is doing well compared to the XB1 and WiiU sales are way down this gen. That is true, hardware sales are down there are plenty of reasons for that, but it does not mean console gaming is dying. In fact I believe in the end the lower sales will not have too bad of an effect on the health of home consoles and gaming in general.

I am going to list a two huge reasons why console sales are down. They are just based on common sense and most of you already know this.

1. The Wii. This is too obvious. Last gen, Nintendo worked a miracle and had people in the nursing home bowling on the Wii. They had people who did not give a shit about gaming getting caught up in the hype and buy one. It sold some software too, Nintendo made a ton of money. WiiFit, WiiSports, Mario Kart, and the rest all benefitted fromt he userbase. No one else did really unless they were making Cooking Mama 6. (Activision with Guitar Hero was the big exception early in the GEN).    Now, Grandma who was in the nursing home is dead. Those people who did not care about gaming still dont and the Wii is in a closet somewhere. A huge chunk of those lost sales are the difference between the Wii and the Wii U, and Nintendo is left holding the bag. They tried to go after the same audience, but that audience had moved on to the next big thing.

2. This is the 1st GEN since GEN freaking 4 that people are not buying consoles as an alternative to another media device. Back in 1995 the Playstation doubling as a CD player was a big deal. PS2 being a DVD player (cheaper than a standalone DVD for a few years) sold a ton of them, and most recently PS3 had the same scenario with blu-ray.  There is no logical reason to buy and XB1 or a PS4 unless you are interested in games, most of the media services offered (Netflix, Hulu, etc) can be had with most modern TVs or a 40 dollar blu-ray player.

In my opinion neither of these major reasons why hardware is down hurts gaming in the long run, software sales are excellant. Sony saw this trend coming, they saw this GEN was going to be about games and are reaping the benefits, MS tried to continue with Kinect 2 and it set them back but they have recovered very nicely and have clearly adopted an "Its about the games stupid" approach. Attach rates are through the roof.

Another reason I feel good about where gaming is heading is the resurgence of genres that aren't FPS. Maybe its in my head but I feel the variety of games we are getting this GEN of the AAA quality is just wonderful. I think a prime example with GG's Zero Horizon, we have a studio doing nothing but FPS for close to a decade getting greenlit for a huge budget ARPG. You have MS and Sony using games likes Tomb Raider, Final Fantasy, Dark Souls, Shenmue as the big draw to their system, is it just me or does that list send you back in time to the year 2000 or what.

Oh ya and PC gaming is thriving as well.


Do you have any evidence to support either claim? I call bullshit on both.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Robert_Downey_Jr. said:
I don't think we're looking at a crash. We're looking at a return to gen 6 levels. Possibly a return to gen 5 at worst. Gaming will grow steadily without the Wii crazies on board instead of the crazy growth we saw last gen.

true. several people i know are also waiting for the price drops of PS4 and PS3 and X360 needs to be discontinued else people won't buy the next gen console.

but on the manufacturer's side, both 360 and ps3 are still selling so it is still a win-win for them.  not sure if they stop production, but they need to stop sooner. and ask all developers to put games on next gen instead of ps360.

it is just the gaming market is shrinking and everybody who loves gaming need to support it. and hopefully avoid the malpractices the developers and publishers are doing across the board since it ain't helping the industry.



It is. Next gen will be the last and this will be MS's last gen.



    

NNID: FrequentFlyer54

GameMasterPC said:
Sharu said:
I agree with you that consoles industry is in deep crysis and it will be only worse. Btw crowdfouding and +/live subscriptions can very much mean that investors money are going out of this business. Leaving it in pre-playstation condition in the end - small, niche industry for enthusiasts.

Consoles are selling very well actually.


ya he clearly only read the subject line.



psn- tokila

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