Whilst I agree with your point, MS has a stunning and crowded line-up this year, I think the title will be good enough and the hype large enough to cement strong sales.

Even without the competition it would, PS4 owners will wait

I think it will sell ok-ish. I'll be waiting for the ps4 version anxiously.

I always found it strange that square Enix decided to make it timed on the XboxOne first taking into account that the first sold better on the playstation and that the ps4 has over 50% market share. I'm not sure whether it was a stupid move or it could end up being a clever move as they must of received a payment from MS and they might of been thinking long term rather than short term in that they'll get the money from playstation owners in the end anyway, it's a risk but it could pay off. A lot will depend on how well it's received by the critics and reviewers.

AC, Halo, CoD, Fallout, Star Wars....all of those will sell much more (on XOne by itself) more than TR. I'm sure it will be a struggle for the game itself, but the developer certainly got a decent sum upfront to not make it a money-loser.

PS4 version, even though delayed, will definitely sell better than the XOne version.

But the real problem is that MS basically wasted money on a now completely unnecessary and unimportant timed exclusivity. At the time, it seemed like a great idea: Throw some money to directly combat Uncharted. Then Uncharted got delayed, and Bethesda decided to release Fallout 4 on the same day. Fallout will have a much bigger hype and will attract a wider audience.
And then, to top off the moneyhat disaster, Microsoft partners with Bethesda for a Fallout marketing deal, going that far to ensure Fallout 3 backward compatibility and give that game away bundled for free. So, they are making a marketing deal to directly compete with their own timed exclusivity deal.

My take: MS had originally hoped that nobody will ask and everyone will assume that TR is exclusive exclusive, and that it will be a third pillar of holiday 2015 (with Forza and Halo). Since, TR has received so much bad press, that they just decided to cut their losses and make a more popular multiplat game sell their consoles instead.

yeah you're right man

From Square Enix pov, they'll be happy, they got microsoft money and X1 /360 sales + dont have to publish the game, only Microsoft could see that as a failure if it isnt the system seller expected, depending on how much they paid for it, i bet it's a lot.

Its coming to 360 so it should be able to sell at least 2m combined.

ya this is exactly what I have been thinking. Its really a bad deal for everyone. Why does MS feel every big game MUST be launched SEP-NOV????

Bloodborne, The Witcher 3, Watchdogs last year, and I am sure Batman next week all prove that its "Better to be the big fish in a small pond, than be a big fish in a whale tank"

Competition will be fierce. Just like 2011. Too many good games scheduled for holiday season.