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AC, Halo, CoD, Fallout, Star Wars....all of those will sell much more (on XOne by itself) more than TR. I'm sure it will be a struggle for the game itself, but the developer certainly got a decent sum upfront to not make it a money-loser.

PS4 version, even though delayed, will definitely sell better than the XOne version.

But the real problem is that MS basically wasted money on a now completely unnecessary and unimportant timed exclusivity. At the time, it seemed like a great idea: Throw some money to directly combat Uncharted. Then Uncharted got delayed, and Bethesda decided to release Fallout 4 on the same day. Fallout will have a much bigger hype and will attract a wider audience.
And then, to top off the moneyhat disaster, Microsoft partners with Bethesda for a Fallout marketing deal, going that far to ensure Fallout 3 backward compatibility and give that game away bundled for free. So, they are making a marketing deal to directly compete with their own timed exclusivity deal.

My take: MS had originally hoped that nobody will ask and everyone will assume that TR is exclusive exclusive, and that it will be a third pillar of holiday 2015 (with Forza and Halo). Since, TR has received so much bad press, that they just decided to cut their losses and make a more popular multiplat game sell their consoles instead.