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Forums - Nintendo - How much will Hyrule Warriors 3D sell?

MikeRox said:
ZhugeEX said:

They shipped over 1 million back in January.

 

VGChartz make up their numbers for this game. 


VGChartz make up their numbers for every game. I'm not sure some people quite understand how estimates work...

As more data is obtained, those estimates are then amended accordingly, hence the occasional revisions up and down. The slower burners will generally slip through the radar, as the main information sources are things like NPD for the West. However they only give figures for select things in software. Especially anything outside the top 20 there is very little to go off other than how it's done at some of the retailers I understand VGC work with?

But yeah, VGC is "estimates" it baffles me why some people take the figures so literally as fact. Tracking the sales of a single title across multiple territories would be a huge undertaking, even IF figures were published in every territory and every publisher/developer announced every single landmark sales data event. However we only tend to hear about the winners, because if a game underperforms, companies generally want to keep that quieter because otherwise it might spook shareholders etc. They also don't always want the competition knowing exactly how they are performing (could encourage more clones trying to grab their sales).


Except VGC don't actually have any POS tracking at all. 

Some of their "estimated sales" is more than 75% off the actual sales number. Somestimes it's 20% or even 10%. But basically ioi just makes up numbers for games he doesn't have actual data for. Thankfully he knows a bit or two about sales patterns so he's not entirely off on how certain games do sell. 

I also agree that it's weird how people take this site so seriously when it's all just estimates based on no actual data, literally made up (unless there is a public sales total from manufacturer/company)



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ZhugeEX said:
MikeRox said:


VGChartz make up their numbers for every game. I'm not sure some people quite understand how estimates work...

As more data is obtained, those estimates are then amended accordingly, hence the occasional revisions up and down. The slower burners will generally slip through the radar, as the main information sources are things like NPD for the West. However they only give figures for select things in software. Especially anything outside the top 20 there is very little to go off other than how it's done at some of the retailers I understand VGC work with?

But yeah, VGC is "estimates" it baffles me why some people take the figures so literally as fact. Tracking the sales of a single title across multiple territories would be a huge undertaking, even IF figures were published in every territory and every publisher/developer announced every single landmark sales data event. However we only tend to hear about the winners, because if a game underperforms, companies generally want to keep that quieter because otherwise it might spook shareholders etc. They also don't always want the competition knowing exactly how they are performing (could encourage more clones trying to grab their sales).


Except VGC don't actually have any POS tracking at all.

Some of their "estimated sales" is more than 75% off the actual sales number. Somestimes it's 20% or even 10%. But basically ioi just makes up numbers for games he doesn't have actual data for. Thankfully he knows a bit or two about sales patterns so he's not entirely off on how certain games do sell.

I also agree that it's weird how people take this site so seriously when it's all just estimates based on no actual data, literally made up (unless there is a public sales total from manufacturer/company)

The shipped numbers Koei reported include digital sales, VGC does not track digital, so most of the difference lies there. Śtill that doesn't mean VGC has to be very correct.



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Mnementh said:
ZhugeEX said:
MikeRox said:


VGChartz make up their numbers for every game. I'm not sure some people quite understand how estimates work...

As more data is obtained, those estimates are then amended accordingly, hence the occasional revisions up and down. The slower burners will generally slip through the radar, as the main information sources are things like NPD for the West. However they only give figures for select things in software. Especially anything outside the top 20 there is very little to go off other than how it's done at some of the retailers I understand VGC work with?

But yeah, VGC is "estimates" it baffles me why some people take the figures so literally as fact. Tracking the sales of a single title across multiple territories would be a huge undertaking, even IF figures were published in every territory and every publisher/developer announced every single landmark sales data event. However we only tend to hear about the winners, because if a game underperforms, companies generally want to keep that quieter because otherwise it might spook shareholders etc. They also don't always want the competition knowing exactly how they are performing (could encourage more clones trying to grab their sales).


Except VGC don't actually have any POS tracking at all.

Some of their "estimated sales" is more than 75% off the actual sales number. Somestimes it's 20% or even 10%. But basically ioi just makes up numbers for games he doesn't have actual data for. Thankfully he knows a bit or two about sales patterns so he's not entirely off on how certain games do sell.

I also agree that it's weird how people take this site so seriously when it's all just estimates based on no actual data, literally made up (unless there is a public sales total from manufacturer/company)

The shipped numbers Koei reported include digital sales, VGC does not track digital, so most of the difference lies there. Śtill that doesn't mean VGC has to be very correct.


VGC also post sell through figures. Not sell in. Those are two completely different things. 

My point was in relation to sell through. We're not talking shipped. 



WU version of Hyrule Warriors will sell 1.6 million lifetime.
3DS will probabily be at 1.2 million imo.
It will sell more in Japan, but less in the US. Probabily equal in the EU...



ZhugeEX said:
MikeRox said:


VGChartz make up their numbers for every game. I'm not sure some people quite understand how estimates work...

As more data is obtained, those estimates are then amended accordingly, hence the occasional revisions up and down. The slower burners will generally slip through the radar, as the main information sources are things like NPD for the West. However they only give figures for select things in software. Especially anything outside the top 20 there is very little to go off other than how it's done at some of the retailers I understand VGC work with?

But yeah, VGC is "estimates" it baffles me why some people take the figures so literally as fact. Tracking the sales of a single title across multiple territories would be a huge undertaking, even IF figures were published in every territory and every publisher/developer announced every single landmark sales data event. However we only tend to hear about the winners, because if a game underperforms, companies generally want to keep that quieter because otherwise it might spook shareholders etc. They also don't always want the competition knowing exactly how they are performing (could encourage more clones trying to grab their sales).


Except VGC don't actually have any POS tracking at all. 

Some of their "estimated sales" is more than 75% off the actual sales number. Somestimes it's 20% or even 10%. But basically ioi just makes up numbers for games he doesn't have actual data for. Thankfully he knows a bit or two about sales patterns so he's not entirely off on how certain games do sell. 

I also agree that it's weird how people take this site so seriously when it's all just estimates based on no actual data, literally made up (unless there is a public sales total from manufacturer/company)


Fair enough. I always thought he had some contacts with some indie retailers who let him know how games were doing and this was why some smaller titles were likely to often be way over tracked. But either way, ioi does a great job with what data he doesn't have and lately the main consoles being tracked within what 5% accuracy? Is a great achievement.



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Skullwaker said:
I predict that it will sell less than the Wii U version. Sure, Japan will probably receive it better but the west already bought into the original and I don't see those same people going out and buying this.

Also, 1m isn't LT sales for Hyrule Warriors Wii U. It isn't even a year old yet. I predict 750-800k LT for the 3DS version, maybe 1m LT if it reaches a substantial amount of people in the west.


OMG, you are a nintendo fan and you still don't know this http://wiiudaily.com/2015/05/hyrule-warriors-has-sold-1-million-units-worldwide/ come on i respect you, but check a little bit



marsoRa said:
OMG, you are a nintendo fan and you still don't know this http://wiiudaily.com/2015/05/hyrule-warriors-has-sold-1-million-units-worldwide/ come on i respect you, but check a little bit

You misunderstand me. I'm not saying it hasn't sold 1m, I'm saying that 1m won't be its lifetime sold number because it's simply bound to sell more.



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Skullwaker said:
marsoRa said:
OMG, you are a nintendo fan and you still don't know this http://wiiudaily.com/2015/05/hyrule-warriors-has-sold-1-million-units-worldwide/ come on i respect you, but check a little bit

You misunderstand me. I'm not saying it hasn't sold 1m, I'm saying that 1m won't be its lifetime sold number because it's simply bound to sell more.

Ohhh gotcha gotcha, im sorry XD 



marsoRa said:
Ohhh gotcha gotcha, im sorry XD 

No worries, dude.



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One million shouldn't be out of the question. The 3DS install base is way bigger (usually I wouldn't use this argument but the Wii U install base is really small). Personally I'm very interested in this game. If it has all the DLC I'm gonna bite. I'm a huge Zelda fan and followed the Wii U version closely but I prefer to play games like this on a portable format: Just putting the 3DS into sleep mode does the trick for me and helps me to tackle lengthy games. Unfortunately, I rarely finish 40 hour + games on home consoles these days, as I mostly play for 30 minutes per session instead of 2-3 hours. Really excited for the 3DS version!