I don't think it will be a hit in the US.

I don't know what bet you're talking about, that's why. I got a lot of replies on that thread, I doubt yours was the only one I missed. 

TBF not to long ago 2mil was flat out ludicrous and 1mil was somewhat grounded in a possible reality.

This game definetly has a wide range of an outcome, yes 4mil is far ahead. Its not going to be close to 3mil am i right!

 Nintendo Land is still getting bundled with Wii-U's to this day. It's like This gen's Wii Sports, and would've done almost as well if Wii-U hadn't fallen so short on the hardware sales front. :/

I guess Splatoon could see long term bundling, but I seriously doubt it. Plus, Wii-U sales aren't exactly seeing their peak at the moment, so that alone will probably hold it back from touching 4 million.

NintendoLand doesnt count now huh? It still proved your first post wrong (though i know it was practically bundled).

WiiU sales are actually up YoY, well currently. That said im asking for a chance at 4mil, not saying you but many keeep implying im saying it'll hit 4mil. Im predicting 2.5mil-3mil Lifetime.

Its funny though, this game is already shattering predictions here and on gaf with japan sales alone!

 I never said Nintendo Land doesn't count, I'm just saying Splatoon won't have the same effect :P

Nothing is impossible. I would say 2 million is a decent prediction. 

Thing is, BloodBorne shattered sales predictions as well, but I don't see that game having a chance in hell at 4 million. Too much of a niche title, like Splatoon. Plus, Splatoon seems like something that would appeal very much to Japanese gamers due to it's brightness and vivid colors. I don't see it being as huge elsewhere 

Done. 

Of course though, I'm not willing to bet my own. Will you accept nothing but my admiration "if" proven correct? 

I still think 2 million is on the borders of crazy, we don't really have data besides reports of 80% sellthrough in Japan on initial shipment, which is not uncommon for games with good pre-order numbers and many seem to assume that it will do amazingly in the US (about double that of Japan FW) while I think that this could be its weakest region by some margin, relative to market size, price and lack of content being the primary reasons.

And I still don't  believe this will be a so called evergreen title; a game built almost entirely on online community and shooting has no history or pedigree on any Nintendo platform and there are an endless number of alternatives for someone who wants competitive online multiplayer, most of these being both bigger and filled with more content.

It's not going to be close to 3 million, you're right... Let's cross 1 million first and celebrate that and then see the drop-off in weeks 2,3 and 4 and make another guess. Better yet; let's see what happens in 2016, it will surely depend on great long-term sales to reach into the several million territory.

Yes but it will take a long time to reach it

I think it the opposite,splatton don't look niche for me it's a game that person with any age will like

Exactly this.