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Mummelmann on 31 May 2015
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tbone51 said:
Mummelmann said:
4 million is beyond madness, that's MK and Smash level sales. With each passing hour, these lifetime predictions are getting more and more crazy, I think we need to be a bit more reasonable.
Shaking the 2 million figure in the air is somewhat grounded in a possible reality; 4 million is flat-out ludicrous in my opinion.


TBF not to long ago 2mil was flat out ludicrous and 1mil was somewhat grounded in a possible reality.

This game definetly has a wide range of an outcome, yes 4mil is far ahead. Its not going to be close to 3mil am i right!


I still think 2 million is on the borders of crazy, we don't really have data besides reports of 80% sellthrough in Japan on initial shipment, which is not uncommon for games with good pre-order numbers and many seem to assume that it will do amazingly in the US (about double that of Japan FW) while I think that this could be its weakest region by some margin, relative to market size, price and lack of content being the primary reasons.

And I still don't  believe this will be a so called evergreen title; a game built almost entirely on online community and shooting has no history or pedigree on any Nintendo platform and there are an endless number of alternatives for someone who wants competitive online multiplayer, most of these being both bigger and filled with more content.

It's not going to be close to 3 million, you're right... Let's cross 1 million first and celebrate that and then see the drop-off in weeks 2,3 and 4 and make another guess. Better yet; let's see what happens in 2016, it will surely depend on great long-term sales to reach into the several million territory.