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Forums - Gaming - Prediction: PS4 will win all the holiday's NPD even without new E3 announcements nor an official price cut.

super6646 on 27 May 2015
Risthel said:

Many of you will think that is a pretty bold statement, but I'm pretty sure Sony has the American's holiday in the bag. I'm also very confident that Sony is going to cut the price (I personally believe about 100 USD) and announce at least one game for the holiday at E3. Nevertheless, these are the reasons I believe will make the PS4 win even without these advantages:

1. Mindshare: despite what many are saying recently, PS4 still retains a lot of good mindshare due to their strategy of spreading exclusive throughout the year, and even thought they don't have right now huge AAA games releasing for the holiday, they still have a lot of middle size exclusives for a variety of people. And of course Bloodborne.

2. Marketing: Sony is playing really smart this gen, and there really isn't much competition in this regard. Apart from advertisement and such, Sony is really good at making bundles. They usually make bundles with high profile games and with a special edition console. Of course this leads to great sales for them (just look at the recent Batman Bundle example).

Lastly, the most important thing.

3. Marketing rights to the biggest games of holiday: let's face it, most people just want to play the annualised Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and Battlefield every year, every holiday. Guess what, Sony will have marketing rights for most, if not all of these games. We already know that Metal Gear Solid V is going to sell a lot more on PS4. Star Wars Battlefront is the next big thing this holiday (even if the games sucks it will sell a lot just because of the movie hype), so it is a huge win for Sony. Call of Duty Black Ops 3 and Assassin's Creed Syndicate are also heavily rumored that are Playstation associated. Sony only needs to make a special edition bundle with Battlefront and/or Call of Duty with a temporary price cut and there will be no match. Toss in the exclusives I mentioned before and there you have it.

Now Microsoft: they have Halo 5 of course and it will sell very good I suppose, but will it be a huge system seller? Considering Halo 4 performance as system seller and the bad reputation after The Master Chief Collection, I am not really sure about it. But even if it does well, that's the only thing they got to sell consoles. Forza 6 isn't a system seller and Tomb Raider too, being a timed exclusive, won't be. Fable Legends is a free to play and the rumored Gears of War Remsterd, well, it's a remastered. Not to mention that the effects of all these games, apart from Halo, will be reduced by the huge amount of big third party games. Lastly, I don't see Microsoft repeating the stunt of last year about cutting the price, I believe they are betting everything on Halo 5 (just look at the marketing campaign that already started and all those marketing deals they lost). They won't go as low as 2014, losing tons of money isn't a sustainable strategy in the long run. Sure, they will have some nice deal here and there but going to the holiday without marketing rights with third party will hurt them a lot.

So, these are my thoughts, what about yours?

Please share your opinion.

Unless they drop the price, they will get obliterated in holiday sales no matter what. On halo week, we should expect a good 1/2 million sales at least, maybe extending to 1 million. So no, Sony will lose if it doesn't cut its price. Also how was Microsoft losing lots of money? Its pretty much so break even or even profit at 350$. The prices of the hardware are down alot since 2013!



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Eddie_Raja on 27 May 2015

Not bold at all. Safest prediction of all time. Sony gave MS a Pyrrhic victory last holiday season, and this time they will exploit that.



Prediction for console Lifetime sales:

Wii:100-120 million, PS3:80-110 million, 360:70-100 million

[Prediction Made 11/5/2009]

3DS: 65m, PSV: 22m, Wii U: 18-22m, PS4: 80-120m, X1: 35-55m

I gauruntee the PS5 comes out after only 5-6 years after the launch of the PS4.

[Prediction Made 6/18/2014]

johann.adriano on 27 May 2015
DerNebel said:
johann.adriano said:
dangerguy said:
You're wrong about Call of Duty, that's not going to Sony, despite the rumors. However, I wholeheartedly agree with the Star Wars Battlefront partnership. This alone could secure the holiday season for Sony. Star Wars is massive, it has massive mainstream appeal and with the the movie and merchandise launching, this is an epic win for Sony.



battelfront is a shooter
shooter are heavily favoured on xbox. the software impact for the marketing deal won't be big (nearly non existend in the us). bundle impact will depend on the pricepoint and what console will be offered. special edition. different color etc...

Lol, the impact of the bundle is going to be massive, take a look at the effect Destiny had. And of course it's going to be a special edition.



i won't be as big as the destiny bundle effect unlike they'll go at a very agressive pricepoint last year september was totally different with the fist white console. extremely hyped game and many hardcore gamer not on "nextgen" already
this year a (possible - or is anything announced already) battelfront bundle has to take a different audience. it also has to compete with blackfriday bundles and offers. no the impact won't be massive. not even close to the destiny bundle impact. to have an massive impact, the bundle alone need to sell about 500k units + 1m regular ps4 skus in november npd, to be on the safe side to beat xb1 sales.

edit: last year the GTAV bundle sold 340k units in november @399. the destiny bundle sold 300k in september @449

Eddie_Raja on 27 May 2015

Unless they drop the price, they will get obliterated in holiday sales no matter what. On halo week, we should expect a good 1/2 million sales at least, maybe extending to 1 million. So no, Sony will lose if it doesn't cut its price. Also how was Microsoft losing lots of money? Its pretty much so break even or even profit at 350$. The prices of the hardware are down alot since 2013!


A little off topic but I am looking at your sig and man you are about to lose a ton of bets lol



Prediction for console Lifetime sales:

Wii:100-120 million, PS3:80-110 million, 360:70-100 million

[Prediction Made 11/5/2009]

3DS: 65m, PSV: 22m, Wii U: 18-22m, PS4: 80-120m, X1: 35-55m

I gauruntee the PS5 comes out after only 5-6 years after the launch of the PS4.

[Prediction Made 6/18/2014]

iTzCharlie on 27 May 2015

No way



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Mr.Playstation on 27 May 2015
Risthel said:

 

Lastly, the most important thing.

3. Marketing rights to the biggest games of holiday: let's face it, most people just want to play the annualised Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and Battlefield every year, every holiday. Guess what, Sony will have marketing rights for most, if not all of these games. We already know that Metal Gear Solid V is going to sell a lot more on PS4. Star Wars Battlefront is the next big thing this holiday (even if the games sucks it will sell a lot just because of the movie hype), so it is a huge win for Sony. Call of Duty Black Ops 3 and Assassin's Creed Syndicate are also heavily rumored that are Playstation associated. Sony only needs to make a special edition bundle with Battlefront and/or Call of Duty with a temporary price cut and there will be no match. Toss in the exclusives I mentioned before and there you have it.

 

Please share your opinion.

I think you're overestimating what one year of marketing rights can do vs what a ton of years of marketing rights can do. Call of Duty, Battelfield and Assasins creed are all ( atleast in America ) considered to be primarly Xbox games. One year of marketing on sony's part won't change that huge stigma. It's quite easy to see how subconsiously Xbox is the go to console in America ( Just like Sony is in Europe/Japan and Nintendo is the go to for handhelds ) this is also seen by how the Xbox One still held up well in America, yet was destroyed in other parts of the world. Therefore the Ps4 winning an NPD in a period of the year in which the American psycology is more prounounced will be extremly difficult to do, not impossible, but quite difficult even with everything on their side. All this said and done I also think you're underestimating Halo's selling power, Cod and Battlefield have nothing on Halo in America and I would compare Halo 5 more with Halo 3 rather than Halo 4.

All that said and then it would be super cool if Playstation won.



Send a Friend Request On PSN :P

super6646 on 27 May 2015
Eddie_Raja said:

Unless they drop the price, they will get obliterated in holiday sales no matter what. On halo week, we should expect a good 1/2 million sales at least, maybe extending to 1 million. So no, Sony will lose if it doesn't cut its price. Also how was Microsoft losing lots of money? Its pretty much so break even or even profit at 350$. The prices of the hardware are down alot since 2013!


A little off topic but I am looking at your sig and man you are about to lose a ton of bets lol


Nah.



DerNebel on 27 May 2015
johann.adriano said:
DerNebel said:

Lol, the impact of the bundle is going to be massive, take a look at the effect Destiny had. And of course it's going to be a special edition.


i won't be as big as the destiny bundle effect unlike they'll go at a very agressive pricepoint last year september was totally different with the fist white console. extremely hyped game and many hardcore gamer not on "nextgen" already
this year a (possible - or is anything announced already) battelfront bundle has to take a different audience. it also has to compete with blackfriday bundles and offers. no the impact won't be massive. not even close to the destiny bundle impact. to have an massive impact, the bundle alone need to sell about 500k units + 1m regular ps4 skus in november npd, to be on the safe side to beat xb1 sales.

edit: last year the GTAV bundle sold 340k units in november @399. the destiny bundle sold 300k in september @449

And this year it's an unhyped game? The reveal trailer has 18 million clicks. I said it will be a special edition, it will be the first Star Wars styled console (again accompanied by the first Star Wars movie in 10 years) and even by the end of the year there will still be more than enough people not on next gen, that's why generally speaking first year sales are never the peak for a system.

What makes you think that Sony won't price this competitively? As I've said before, I'm certain that Sony is going to drop the price this year and I'm certain the bundle will be priced accordingly.

Seriously you're completely underestimating how big Star Wars is going to be this holiday season, every other game or in fact media release as a whole is going to be a drop in the bucket compared to it and the PS4 can directly take advantage off of that.



Playstation_awaiter on 27 May 2015

The best thing I all, battle front release in November the biggest month of the year, if destiny pushed more ps4s than any halo ever did for Xbox, this holiday is about to get real people expecting domination from Xbox are in for a surprise. Sony did shit all last year, this year they are price cutting.



Risthel on 27 May 2015
super6646 said:
Risthel said:

Many of you will think that is a pretty bold statement, but I'm pretty sure Sony has the American's holiday in the bag. I'm also very confident that Sony is going to cut the price (I personally believe about 100 USD) and announce at least one game for the holiday at E3. Nevertheless, these are the reasons I believe will make the PS4 win even without these advantages:

1. Mindshare: despite what many are saying recently, PS4 still retains a lot of good mindshare due to their strategy of spreading exclusive throughout the year, and even thought they don't have right now huge AAA games releasing for the holiday, they still have a lot of middle size exclusives for a variety of people. And of course Bloodborne.

2. Marketing: Sony is playing really smart this gen, and there really isn't much competition in this regard. Apart from advertisement and such, Sony is really good at making bundles. They usually make bundles with high profile games and with a special edition console. Of course this leads to great sales for them (just look at the recent Batman Bundle example).

Lastly, the most important thing.

3. Marketing rights to the biggest games of holiday: let's face it, most people just want to play the annualised Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed and Battlefield every year, every holiday. Guess what, Sony will have marketing rights for most, if not all of these games. We already know that Metal Gear Solid V is going to sell a lot more on PS4. Star Wars Battlefront is the next big thing this holiday (even if the games sucks it will sell a lot just because of the movie hype), so it is a huge win for Sony. Call of Duty Black Ops 3 and Assassin's Creed Syndicate are also heavily rumored that are Playstation associated. Sony only needs to make a special edition bundle with Battlefront and/or Call of Duty with a temporary price cut and there will be no match. Toss in the exclusives I mentioned before and there you have it.

Now Microsoft: they have Halo 5 of course and it will sell very good I suppose, but will it be a huge system seller? Considering Halo 4 performance as system seller and the bad reputation after The Master Chief Collection, I am not really sure about it. But even if it does well, that's the only thing they got to sell consoles. Forza 6 isn't a system seller and Tomb Raider too, being a timed exclusive, won't be. Fable Legends is a free to play and the rumored Gears of War Remsterd, well, it's a remastered. Not to mention that the effects of all these games, apart from Halo, will be reduced by the huge amount of big third party games. Lastly, I don't see Microsoft repeating the stunt of last year about cutting the price, I believe they are betting everything on Halo 5 (just look at the marketing campaign that already started and all those marketing deals they lost). They won't go as low as 2014, losing tons of money isn't a sustainable strategy in the long run. Sure, they will have some nice deal here and there but going to the holiday without marketing rights with third party will hurt them a lot.

So, these are my thoughts, what about yours?

Please share your opinion.

Unless they drop the price, they will get obliterated in holiday sales no matter what. On halo week, we should expect a good 1/2 million sales at least, maybe extending to 1 million. So no, Sony will lose if it doesn't cut its price. Also how was Microsoft losing lots of money? Its pretty much so break even or even profit at 350$. The prices of the hardware are down alot since 2013!

I can tell you one thing: no one is going to be obliterated in sales this holiday, I can see both Microsoft and Sony doing well this year. And how can you say Microsoft is breaking even or even profiting from Xbox One? Do you have sources? The console is still sold with two free games so I find it difficult to believe that they are profiting from that. But since I don't really know and I don't have sources I won't say if it is sold at loss or not. What I did say in the OP is different: if Microsoft slashes the price like they did last holidays they are going to lose a lot of money for sure, and everybody can pretty much agree with that. Hence, I don't see them doing the same thing this year.