I guess time will tell :) And remember, Microsoft won last year because they were desperate and made a bold move. This year I can see them being more confident, therefore they won't rely on huge price cuts and deals.

It may have a chance with price cut unless MS cut the console again but it doesnt bother me. PS4 won the gen. A little competition will help keep sony humble.

Your prediction is very unlikely. The holidays are generally Microsoft's to lose in the US market, and with the lineup they have this year, it's hard to imagine that they could lose. Sony will certainly see a nice benefit in sales from 3rd party marketing rights and a price cut.

dont think so it might have a better chance of winning specific months rather then all the holiday months as you state

dont think they'll drop the price this year (think it will get cut when UC4 releases) but i expect something being released this fall that we dont know about or is confirm yet

i do see the ps4 selling very well this holiday season and more compared to last with COD starwars and NFS leading the front in SW aswell as sony offering better deals and bundles if they dont cut the price