I understand your point of view. I just don't see Microsoft making another meaningful price cut with the release of Halo. It is their best IP and they sure want to make a lot of money with it. So I expect a bundle yes, but at the current price. The reason why MS won last holiday was for the insane deals Xbox One got and bundles with Assassin's Creed Unity and Call of Duty (especially the former). The Master Chief Collection gave a boost too, but nowhere near the other two reasons I wrote. Since I don't believe that both will happen this year, that's why I think PS4 will win. Halo 5 is just one game after all. 

No... M$ owns the holidays. Nothing you stated will change that in the US. If Sony drops the price of the PS4, M$ will drop the Price of the XB1. So, no net gain for the PS4. In the US, M$ is slowly gaining momentum. Heck, they took April with nothing to point to that really mattered. By the end of 2016, the XB1 will be winning the US on a 10 out of 12 basis...

Without any e3 announcements or a pricecut? Not a chance in hell....

I doubt it will happen that ps4 will be winning all the months but if it does it would be pretty hilarious

We will most likely see a 50$ pricecut. Sony already said last year that they should have been more aggressive with their prices and It's in their best interest to have an official price cut to compete with Microsoft and not take the hit on their market share.

Yeah no way that's going to happen. The thing you seem to ignore is that the X1 is already $50 cheaper than the PS4, so should Sony drop the price by $100 in the holidays then even MS would be hardpressed to undercut the PS4 again, they might at best go down to $300 as well, which would be a net gain for the PS4.

Also there's probably nothing that Sony could put out this holiday season that would realistically have the console selling power that the inevitable special edition Star Wars console is going to have in the US, even the special edition that came with Kinect Star Wars sold systems in 2012 (albeit not a ton), how much do you think a special edition PS4 with Battlefront (which EA expects to sell 10 million copies of, so the marketing will be huge) released alongside the new Star Wars movie is going to sell this year?

So I highly, highly doubt that the X1 is going to go 10 for 12 in 2016, I think you are really overstating the slight April victory that could probably easily be attributed to the Batman special edition.

what do you consider a holiday npd?
only november and december, or october, too?

even if sony will cut the ps4 price by 50 bucks, they will loose at least 1 holiday npd
only way for this to happen is a 100 buck pricecut in september or october and great black friday / holiday deals


sony don't have destiny this september to keep momentum into october
sonys first party lineup this holiday is even weaker than last year and microsofts is way stronger than last year
the negative word of mouth for xbox one is fading more and more



it's way more probable that ms will win all three holiday npd instead of sony

Finally a nice prediction again. Would be cool if it came true.

Thank you for the compliment! Unfortunately I don't see it happening for the simple reason that Sony will cut the price, but you never know ;)

I am really curious. Have you seen first 2 years of PS3? Let me take you for a history tour.

1. Games like gears of war, mass effect (also on PC) and lots of JRPGs were coming in Xbox 360.

2. PS3 was loosing exclusives left and right. Assassins creed to DMC 4 all became multiplat.

3. As advertised supercomputer PS3 was struggling to put decent frame rate in same game compared to Xbox 360.

4. PS2 was still kicking PS3 in sales.

5. Xbox live was reliable, well designed and fun to play.

6. Xbox 360 was cheaper.

7. All of Sonys first party studios were struggling.

If you really liked PS3 even after these problems then why not give a chance PS4. Lots of games to play. And wait for E3 for one / two AA / HD remasters for this fall.