1,500,000 imo, not bad for a new IP, and if will have a sequel, possible 2/3 million.

Sorry tbone but you're being too optimistic. Splatoon will be lucky to hit 1mil by the end of the year; let alone within one month.

Ofcourse I'd love to be proven wrong and what with it being more of a "budget" title over here it could assist with some impulse purchases...and the ad campaign is alright...but yeah I don't see it managing that so soon. Not with the Wii U's install base anyway (you're asking more than 10% of all Wii U owners to buy the game within a month, after all).

I think splatoons overall sales stand and fall with it's north american performance. It's Nintendos strongest overall territory but It's also the only territory where the game is full price. Nintendo must be confident about it's performance there, to go with such a wierd pricing pattern though.

I read a lot of comments around here by people who don't quite want to shell out full price for the game at launch, so that has me worried about it's NA performance. :/

I hope it does really well. Nintendo is certainly pushing it, and the demo did wonders, so that helps. But overall I'm sceptical that it will actually do that well.
T-bones optimisn is always appreciated though! ;)

If it does underperform, I reckon launch content and voice chat will be the primary culprits.

Yes! I´m goint to win my bet in no time! :P

Not sure about June though, I stick to my "1.5 million sold before 2016" prediction.

1 Month? I don't think so. Why?

Because Its stuck between The Witcher 3 and Batman AK + The fact that for some reason Nintendo only users are still getting grasp on how online gaming works and may not be interested in a game that relies so much on it.

With that being said, if this game had actually the exact same set up BUT it was called Mario Paintball (with Nintendo Characters) it will sell 5 million copies in 1 year easily. The attachment ratio for Mario games is just ridiculous

I think it will be 750k at most shipped after 1 month
and will hit 1 million by the beginning of the holidays.

Since it's shipping+digital yes it can do it

I think it will sell well thanks to the amount of promotion Nintendo are doing for the game, but I'd be blown away if it does 1m in one month, I think it will reach 1m a bit after the DLC patch in the summer, because I reckon people will buy it when that patch comes.

Voice chat is the big killer for me.  Just can't wrap my head around that decision...

anyway, this game is sitting at 20k on the U.S. Preorder chart?  No way it moves a million the first month... I don't even believe it will do that lifetime, but y'all already know my thoughts on that.